Main Event of Golden Cup - Opinions please

McWager

$1k main event of the Golden Cup Series of Poker on Cryptologic

200/400 ante 50
in 5 minutes blinds 300/600 ante 75
starting pot 1050

Hero - button - 22k
Villain - UTG - 53k
UTG + 1 - 7.5k - donkey i think

My table image is terrible - in the last 5 minutes I have been caught with 25s and J7o.
Villain is HarrisMP, plays poker for a living, cash 3/6 to 5/10, his biggest online tourney win being $11k and he seems decent

Villain raise to 1200
UTG + 1 calls
Hero raise to 4000 with QQ
villain calls, everyone else folds

Flop 456
Pot 10250

Villain checks
Hero bets 7000
Villain raise all in

Opinions?

valor

clearly call

LuckyLloyd

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McWager

i know as played it is an insta call, but would appreciate opinions on general line

McWager

Also my opinion of his hand ranges were as follows

After pre flop action:
Now at this point Im thinking he is 100% capable of playing AA/KK this way - he will also play 99+ and AK/AQ like this imo. I dont think he is the kind of player to have much else.

After his all in:
at this point Im thinking I really only beat JJ, maybe TT and 99 at a stretch - although I cant fold

I thought betting flop was best way to get value from JJ type hands while simultaneously not giving AK a free shot? I really didnt see him having a very wide range here to be honest - at this stage in the tourney, most good big stacks tend to leverage their stacks by betting a wide range in mid late pos, but I didnt think he would raise even small pair 3 bb utg as chances of taking it down are slim, and it is less necessary to juice the pot at these blind/ante levels- at least I think thats what they tend to do - anyone disagree?

Was your thinking Lloyd that a check will look more like a missed AK than a c bet and increase expectation by getting paid off on next card?

Van Dice

What do you think about cold calling his pf raise?

McWager

Van Dice wrote:

What do you think about cold calling his pf raise?

i think it is very very bad because
1) the UTG+1 donk is involved and we may be able to get all in against him
2) the bb will likely call for 2 more big blinds getting great pot odds
3)there is quite a lot of money in there already with antes etc, therefore we want to reduce the field and take advantage of the dead money

we have the third best hand in poker, the button and we are under pressure to accumulate chips with M of 20ish and blinds going up soon. Playing a 4 way pot here is out of the question

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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Van Dice

McWager wrote:

i think it is very very bad because
1) the UTG+1 donk is involved and we may be able to get all in against him
2) the bb will likely call for 2 more big blinds getting great pot odds
3)there is quite a lot of money in there already with antes etc, therefore we want to reduce the field and take advantage of the dead money

we have the third best hand in poker, the button and we are under pressure to accumulate chips with M of 20ish and blinds going up soon. Playing a 4 way pot here is out of the question

That's what I thought, but the flop play is ultra-standard no? Therefore hand totally plays itself from start to finish?

RoundTower

Van Dice wrote:

Therefore hand totally plays itself from start to finish?

yeah

cardshark202

good god checking this flop would be retarded given your image. I would have raised a little more preflop but otherwise this hand is very standard

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

McWager

Van Dice wrote:

That's what I thought, but the flop play is ultra-standard no? Therefore hand totally plays itself from start to finish?

I wouldnt say that the hand plays itself and I thought it was a tricky one because-

Taking a macro view: from pre flop on I was saying to myself "f*ck f*ck AA or KK is so likely here" (and believe me im not a glass half empty merchant)then proceeded to stack off with QQ

Looking into detail:
maybe the flop isnt that standard- maybe I should have got away from it at some point. I gave a preflop range of 99+,AK, AQ but to be honest as he was a good player, I think we have to assign a heavy probability weighting to AA,KK - and that was def my sense at the time

I know Hellmuth would have laid it down(after 5 minute or so rant)
The book probably says get it in

btw he had KK which I think he played perfectly

oh well good to get a line check anyway

McWager

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Well, considering your description of YOUR table image, I don't think that you need to be thinking in such terms of a polarised range of decent starting hands.

Given your description of UTG + 1, this would be a standard spot for you to attempt a squeeze with a very wide range - and he is likely to be aware of this. As such, he may very well expect you to have Badugi here, and his plan for the hand may have been to CRAI a huge variety of flops. That being said, you have stuck in half your stack after the c - bet, and he should know that his FE is significantly reduced and you will be forced to call with any over - pair // flopped one pair // OESD.

As such, I prefer to check this flop behind - because it may increase the chances in his mind that you were making a pure play and are pulling out of it because of the awkward stack sizes. And therefore, increase the chances that he bet - calls the turn with a wider range of hands you beat. Oh and finally: he probably doesn't have absolute air given the actual flop action - but it is always a possibillity once he checks. And checking behind the flop of course allows him to bet - fold nothing on the turn. If he has AK and gets there it surely sucks, but it is 6 outs once.

good points about my image getting extra money out of him etc. but in terms of UTGs range I think it is pretty narrow
As I said - I dont think he raises 3x with small pairs etc utg here - because pot juicing not necessary and with such large blinds antes incentive for others to play back is huge. I think he makes most of his pressure raises in lp
therefore I really think he only has 99+, AK, AQ so only hands he can bluff cr with is AK and AQ

RoundTower

I don't think you understand, if he is a "good player" he is getting in the 30 BB with hands you beat. A player against whom you should get away from QQ with 30BB is something different.

McWager

RoundTower wrote:

I don't think you understand, if he is a "good player" he is getting in the 30 BB with hands you beat. A player against whom you should get away from QQ with 30BB is something different.

my point was, given his preflop action(before I got involved in hand) I think he has 99+, AK, AQ with AA and KK most likely

its his 3bb raise utg at a time when there are antes that had me most worried here - but of course i cant lay down pre and after that everything he does will, as you say, be coloured by his perception of me as being loose/aggro

so I suppose conclusion is I had to play the hand this way, been a useful line check tho as I really was quite unsure with this one, as most people are when they get a lot of money in never really feeling they are ahead

Van Dice

McWager wrote:

I wouldnt say that the hand plays itself and I thought it was a tricky one because-

Taking a macro view: from pre flop on I was saying to myself "f*ck f*ck AA or KK is so likely here" (and believe me im not a glass half empty merchant)then proceeded to stack off with QQ

Looking into detail:
maybe the flop isnt that standard- maybe I should have got away from it at some point. I gave a preflop range of 99+,AK, AQ but to be honest as he was a good player, I think we have to assign a heavy probability weighting to AA,KK - and that was def my sense at the time

I know Hellmuth would have laid it down(after 5 minute or so rant)
The book probably says get it in

btw he had KK which I think he played perfectly

oh well good to get a line check anyway

Ok AA or KK are possibilities, BUT

Preflop is a reraise, as above.

I agree with cardshark, I don't think a flop check would be good. If your image is bad, he will shove hands you have beat, and I don't think it's a great spot to check to widen his range if you get AI on turn (I do like this line sometimes though). There are a number of turn cards which are bad (from sense of being outdrawn if you are currently ahead, action killers if he has a hand you beat which he will get AI with now, and there's a small chance you may get bluffed off the best hand depending on how the board develops).

And obviously you are snapcalling his shove, I think a laydown here would be pretty terrible tbh. It's impossible to construct a hand range for villain against which QQ would be a fold to

RoundTower

McWager wrote:

my point was, given his preflop action(before I got involved in hand) I think he has 99+, AK, AQ with AA and KK most likely

well then he probably sucks at poker and doesn't beat 5 10 NL after all. Also you don't even mention what position he opened from in the OP, you just say UTG.

opr

RoundTower wrote:

well then he probably sucks at poker and doesn't beat 5 10 NL after all. Also you don't even mention what position he opened from in the OP, you just say UTG.

Is UTG not used to describe someone who was first to act preflop ?

Opr

RoundTower

yes it does, I've said this before but using "UTG" here is super lazy and probably means you don't think about the hand in all the right ways, "UTG" could mean 4 5 6 or 7 off the button.

RoundTower

actually you can work it out from the post, but it's not exactly clear.

opr

Cheers, i presumed it was something like that.

Opr

McWager

RoundTower wrote:

well then he probably sucks at poker and doesn't beat 5 10 NL after all. Also you don't even mention what position he opened from in the OP, you just say UTG.

By UTG I meant under the gun, or first to act preflop

Im sure he raises a wide range first to act when he plays 5/10

However in a tournament like this, 9 handed, at this stage ie when it is all about blind stealing, when you have a big stack I think it is far superior to raise a small range first to act(generally these players are not good enough to notice that you have tightened your under the gun range)
Then leverage your stack by making positional raises in late position and positional 3 bets or calls of other aggro players
This is a far better way to build your stack imo and a completely different strategy to 5/10 cash

This is how I perceived him to be playing.

Therefore I would give him a tight hand range and attach a much higher prob to AA or KK given the 3x raise. However I AGREE that I prob cant get away from QQ here

Van Dice

RoundTower wrote:

well then he probably sucks at poker and doesn't beat 5 10 NL after all. Also you don't even mention what position he opened from in the OP, you just say UTG.

??
All the big winners I've ever played against raise a pretty tight range UTG. And that's 6-max.
Personally I would often fold AJo UTG 6-handed against good players.

Also Wager, shirley you can't give him higher prob of KK/AA just cos he raised 3xBB?

McWager

Van Dice wrote:

??
All the big winners I've ever played against raise a pretty tight range UTG. And that's 6-max.
Personally I would often fold AJo UTG 6-handed against good players.

Also Wager, shirley you can't give him higher prob of KK/AA just cos he raised 3xBB?

I can and do - not saying he def has to have them.

Not good if you have Imperium, lilholdem et al at your table, but at a table of random donks who are probably sleeping, eating and watching TV while trying to play the tourney it can be perfectly Ok to vary your bet sizes in accordance with your hand.

In these big multis you never get to see more than a few hands shown down at this stage anyway and dont spend very long with players

+ I had seen him raise more in ep previously with a less than premium hand

and dont call me Shirley

Van Dice

McWager wrote:

I can and do - not saying he def has to have them.

Not good if you have Imperium, lilholdem et al at your table, but at a table of random donks who are probably sleeping, eating and watching TV while trying to play the tourney it can be perfectly Ok to vary your bet sizes in accordance with your hand.

In these big multis you never get to see more than a few hands shown down at this stage anyway and dont spend very long with players

+ I had seen him raise more in ep previously with a less than premium hand

and dont call me Shirley

ok that makes sense. I'd want to be pretty sure I'm playing morons before I bet-size according to my holding though. He must have had a laser read on you

Captain Tom

McWager wrote:

and dont call me Shirley

lol wp. Airplane ftw.

McWager

Van Dice wrote:

ok that makes sense. I'd want to be pretty sure I'm playing morons before I bet-size according to my holding though. He must have had a laser read on you

lol ya:(

but to be honest playing morons aint the most important thing - as long as you dont have a history with people I think its ok.

MTTs you get so many random players and such a small snapshop, not like cash where you have like a million hands from leaving poker tracker on all night