Deepish tourney hand from Lukes. River spot.

Lazare

A litte history on villain. Previous orbit he overlimps for 200, I make it 800 in mp, BB calls, first limper folds, villain calls. 10cJc7h flop, he CRAI for 8k after I bet pot. I have rags.
Same orbit, I'm in BB with Q3, he leads from SB into two of us on a Qs7s4d flop. I flat call, limper folds. Qc on turn, he leads again (1/2 pot), I call, river goes check check. He has rags.


Effective stack 12k
Blinds 100/200

I'm in CO with 78os, one limper and villain min raises (standard), I call as does BB, limper folds.
Flop (1500) is 4d 6d 7c, checked to villain he bets 500, I call. BB folds.
Turn (2500) 10h, check check.
River Ah, he checks, I'm pretty confident I have the best hand, but I don't want to check behind, just in case he has 88 or 99. I bet 1600, he thinks for a few seconds and makes it 5k.


Given reads, villains unusual line and my line looking like a busted diamond draw, do you find a call?



As aside, if you haven't been to Lukes yet, go soon, I've never felt more at home outside my own house.

Hitman Actual

Thr river hand should be a fairly standard maths decision: You're getting nearly 2/1, and how many hands is he bluffing with compared to hands that he's beating you with.

Slightly off-topic, this hand and the first hand in the given history seem to be very leaky ways of getting involved with marginal hands. In a 60BB tournament, there are better uses for your chips, imo. Just an observation.

Lazare

lenny_leonard wrote:

Thr river hand should be a fairly standard maths decision: You're getting nearly 2/1, and how many hands is he bluffing with compared to hands that he's beating you with.

Sure enough, my thinking is he surely bets a strong hand, and check calls a marginal one. Is his line ever anything other than a bluff?

lenny_leonard wrote:

Slightly off-topic, this hand and the first hand in the given history seem to be very leaky ways of getting involved with marginal hands. In a 60BB tournament, there are better uses for your chips, imo. Just an observation

The first hand was just a straight forward squeez, it's successful a lot more often than not, the table dynamics were right for it. (I did have a suited raggy Ace, so had a little backup if it went pear shaped )
Would you fold the 78 pre Lenny? I was expecting at least a 3 way pot with position.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

BobSloane

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Check behind the river. Fold now. A bet on the end against a spewtard on that board is pretty silly. After the Ace falls, he will not call your bet with a hand you beat.

You have turned showdown value into a bluff. And after he check raises, you now don't even beat some of the retarded bluffs he may make here (I recently learned this the hard way in a hand vs Vinny Longlad down in Kerry).

He is soooooooo unlikely to check raise missed diamonds or a missed straight draw.

Yeah you only have 900 out of a 12k stack invested in a small pot. To make the call you'll have put in half of your stack with a pair of 7s! You should value bet or bluff bet. If I'm 50/50 and my hand has showdown value I'll usually check behind. Don't know what I'd do here now as played. You have to try to get to the level of thinking of what hand does he think I bet. He probably doesn't put you on a 7 anyway

Lazare

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Check behind the river. Fold now. A bet on the end against a spewtard on that board is pretty silly. After the Ace falls, he will not call your bet with a hand you beat.

You have turned showdown value into a bluff. And after he check raises, you now don't even beat some of the retarded bluffs he may make here (I recently learned this the hard way in a hand vs Vinny Longlad down in Kerry).

He is soooooooo unlikely to check raise missed diamonds or a missed straight draw.

I knew I was doing this alright, it wasn't exactly a vb, I just didn't want to see a dominating hand that would've folded to a bet.
Check raising the river with strenght seems retarded to me, my line looks like air, therefore I have to put him on a bluff. I've close to never seen anyone CR on the end with strenght.

Lazare

BobSloane wrote:

Yeah you only have 900 out of a 12k stack invested in a small pot. To make the call you'll have put in half of your stack with a pair of 7s! You should value bet or bluff bet. If I'm 50/50 and my hand has showdown value I'll usually check behind. Don't know what I'd do here now as played. You have to try to get to the level of thinking of what hand does he think I bet. He probably doesn't put you on a 7 anyway

I'm not too bothered about how much I have invested in the pot, as for what he's putting me on, a missed draw that can't stand a raise. I'll almost always check behind here, but I decided to turn it into a bluff in this case for reasons stated.

Hitman Actual

Lazare wrote:

Sure enough, my thinking is he surely bets a strong hand, and check calls a marginal one. Is his line ever anything other than a bluff?

It looks fishy alright, and I don't see what 'real' hand makes sense. Personally I'd have to be there (although I would have checked behind the river, as the others said), but you seem strong enough in your reads throughout the hand that a call is correct.

Lazare wrote:

The first hand was just a straight forward squeez, it's successful a lot more often than not, the table dynamics were right for it. (I did have a suited raggy Ace, so had a little backup if it went pear shaped )
Would you fold the 78 pre Lenny? I was expecting at least a 3 way pot with position.

I was probably a bit results-oriented by saying it was 'leaky', as you seemed to be getting into potentially costly situations on the flop and beyond. Calling looks fine on reflection.

ianmc38

yeah what lloyd said.

Mellor

Given the description of the history. I think the villian has an A here alot.

River Ah, he checks, I'm pretty confident I have the best hand

Isn't that one of the reasons to try a CRAI. To make you think that, or bluff catcher.
If he bet out on the river you would of probably folded I imagine. CRAI was his only way to get paid off.

McWager

LuckyLloyd wrote:

And after he check raises, you now don't even beat some of the retarded bluffs he may make here

I think this is the key point - regardless of the trash he may be holding(A rag not out of question) you are not winning much of the the time here.

As regards the earlier squeeze, I would normally raise a little more pre and bet less on the flop - I dont think a pot sized c bet is necessary

BobSloane

Lazare wrote:

I'm not too bothered about how much I have invested in the pot, as for what he's putting me on, a missed draw that can't stand a raise. I'll almost always check behind here, but I decided to turn it into a bluff in this case for reasons stated.

I suppose but imo the reasons stated don't make it a good play.
Basically you want to fold out 88 and 99? Thats a pretty tight range to put him on so for this play to be +ev he has to have one of those hands AND he has to fold them - which he may not. He may just put you on the missed draw and call anyway. He would surely call with an A. He could have made a straight on the turn and checked it to you with the intention of raising and when the ace came on the river thought his only hope to make money was to check it to you and hope the ace had hit you - or if it didn't that you would represent it. Or maybe he made a set of tens on the turn and went along similar lines. Who knows what peoples thought processes are sometimes. Then there's the point Llyod makes where he could decide to turn his 88 or 99 hand into a bluff. So maybe you should shove..it may be a better play than calling lol

If you fold here and were bluffed its a mistake that cost you the pot. - disaster
If you call and he has you beat its a mistake that cost you 5k. -disaster
If you fold and he had you beat fair enough but you could have got there for free
If you call and you're good then fine but you would have won the pot anyway

So wheres the good in betting this river?

Lazare

TY all, good points all well made. Betting on the end was bad alright.

Btw, I called, he had A 10.