I'm 100% sure I'm beaten??? what you think?

Macspower

Ok first one is the easiest I think.....

Green Joker Poker 0.50/1.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter (http://www.talking-poker.com/hands/converter.aspx) at Talking-Poker (http://www.talking-poker.com)

Button ($98.40)
SB ($35.45)
BB ($114.95)
UTG ($73.00)
UTG+1 ($175.60)
CO hero ($140.65)

Preflop: hero is in the CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 4.00, hero raises to 13.50, 2 folds, BB calls 12.50, UTG+1 calls 9.50.

Flop (41.00) 7s 8c Jh
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, hero bets 35.00, BB calls 35.00, UTG+1 calls 35.00.

Turn (146.00) Qd
BB moves all-in for 66.45, UTG+1 calls 66.45,

UTG+1 id a decent reg and his flat call here really worries me.

I find the fold button yeah??

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Hand 2

This prob the most tricky and interesting one

I have a long history with the villan here over 7000 hands
He is one of the better regs at 100nl and i've played with him at 200nl as well. his stats 26/20/5.9/6895. I have concrete reads on him but his agression is his biggest strength but can also be used against him..... He opens for 3bb's every time and c-bets every flop regardless of texture..... guaranteed.. if you raise him on the flop he is likely to RR you with air as the pot is pretty small as his c-bet is always 1/2 the pot..


Alarm bells ring immediately when he checks the flop.... I've never seen him miss a c-bet.. and when he flat calls I think slowplaying AA or KK here.. I'm getting paid..
When he c/c my turn bet My mind changes to a set of 9's...

Can I ever check behind on the river regardless of my read? I have a house for god's sake so I value bet and when he raises I'm 100% sure I'm beaten..... I can never fold here? But should I have checked behind on the river I wonder?


Green Joker Poker 0.50/1.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button Hero Button ($204.15)
SB SB ($48.50)
BB ($34.25)
UTG ($300.55)
UTG+1 UTG+1 ($199.80)

Hero is dealt 6h 6s

Preflop: , 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 3.00, Button calls 3.00, SB calls 2.50, 1 fold.

Flop (10.00) 9 2 6
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Button bets 7.00, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls 7.00.

Turn (24.00) 2
UTG+1 checks, Button bets 22.00, UTG+1 calls 22.00.

River (68.00) 7
UTG+1 checks, Button bets 30.00, UTG+1 raises all in for 137.80

He could be thinking that his AA now beats all 2 pr hands etc etc... but he must have 99?? But we don't fold sets never mind houses? If he has it he has it right? or wrong?

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Hand 3 is agains the same villan....

Should I have repumped the flop?
Again sure I'm beaten but can I find a fold for the price?

Green Joker Poker 0.50/1.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter (http://www.talking-poker.com/hands/converter.aspx) at Talking-Poker (http://www.talking-poker.com)

Button ($121.30)
SB ($107.05)
BB Hero ($154.15)
UTG ($92.00)
UTG+1 ($75.00)
CO ($256.50)

Dealt to hero Qs 10s

Preflop: , 1 fold, UTG+1 calls 1.00, 1 fold, Button calls 1.00, SB calls 0.50, BB checks.

Flop (4.00) Kh Jc Ac
SB checks, BB bets 3.00, 1 fold, Button raises to 13.00, 1 fold, BB calls 10.00.

Turn (30.00) As
BB checks, Button bets 10.00, BB calls 10.00.

River (50.00) 8d
BB checks, Button bets 25.00

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thanks as usual guys... any input appreciated

ianmc38

1. A fold looks good

2. Instacall. Literally.

3. Jesus man 3bet that flop for gods sake. So many action killers can com e on the turn. Cold calling is really bad. Call the river as well.

El Stuntman

what ian said...

are you a bit low on mojo at the moment mac?

premierstone

Hand 1. - Have To Fold Soo Many Hands Beating You Here One Or Even Both Of Them Are Beating You

Hand 2. - Not Folding Here In A Million Years

Hand 3. - Again I Agree With The Previous Replies Have To Shove On The Flop Here Any Club Or Board Pairing And You Dont Know Where Your Hand Is.

Van Dice

ianmc38 wrote:

1. A fold looks good

2. Instacall. Literally.

3. Jesus man 3bet that flop for gods sake. So many action killers can com e on the turn. Cold calling is really bad. Call the river as well.

Agree with all of this. Except I think I call quicker in hand 2. And I b/3b AI on turn in hand 3 (given that you called flop), I don't see how you are behind.

Van Dice

premierstone wrote:

Hand 1. - Have To Fold Soo Many Hands Beating You Here One Or Even Both Of Them Are Beating You

Hand 2. - Not Folding Here In A Million Years

Hand 3. - Again I Agree With The Previous Replies Have To Shove On The Flop Here Any Club Or Board Pairing And You Dont Know Where Your Hand Is.

I Found This Funny For Some Reason Lol

mickste

Hey Mac, The part that bothers me about your hands is hand two where you're sure he has 99. You have history on him and know his style of play. OK.Mac, he probably has the same information on you. If he has 99 fair enough but you can never find a fold here.Little bit of MUBS i think Mac

He didn't have the deuce's did he?;)

phantom_lord

1. fold

2. easy shove.

3. reraise flop! call now.

Moneymaker

1) Insta-fold, espically with your record with Aces Paul.

2) I'd be beating him into the pot, if he has 99, well done to him.

3) Raise the flop. As played, call the river.

Macspower

thanks for replies so far guy.. i'll leave this a little longer before results but my own thinking on the matter.

hand 1 I think is an easy fold given flat call by the good player in the middle..

hand 2 ... this hand is not as easy as some are making it out.. lets have a look...

a good thinking agressive player that NEVER misses a c-bet suddenly check calls a flop with 3 players in the pot ...fair enough it's cheap and maybe he can fish with AK here once....

but then he check calls a bigger bet on the turn and cheks the river to me...... something fishey going on here..... I have never seen him play an overpair like this

what I'm really getting at is does anyone check behind here or am I generally loosing value?

now lets look at the river...... I value bet and he check/shoves..... what do we put him on?? He never turns up here with AA or KK or any 1 pair (well 2 given the board) hands... only hand he has that we beat here is a bluf or maybe 10/8 but he's never c/c 2 street looking for the middler...

While I agree it's a call it's far from an instant call given the situation... 77 and 99 seem much more likely to me...


hand 3 as I said myself I should have got it in on the flop... He has an Ace here 100% of the time given his flop raise.... and usually a decent Ace...... any decent Ace has now housed up on the turn... and were lucky to get to a cheapish showdown

just my thoughts on the mattters... let me know what you think?

Mac

Van Dice

Macspower wrote:

hand 3 as I said myself I should have got it in on the flop... He has an Ace here 100% of the time given his flop raise.... and usually a decent Ace...... any decent Ace has now housed up on the turn... and were lucky to get to a cheapish showdown

just my thoughts on the mattters... let me know what you think?

Mac

If he's 26/20, he raises AA/KK/AK/JJ preflop here 100% of the time I think. And I would imagine he raises AJ ~ 100% of the time preflop too. If you aren't ahead, I think it's because you are splitting with another QT

Macspower

Van Dice wrote:

If he's 26/20, he raises AA/KK/AK/JJ preflop here 100% of the time I think. And I would imagine he raises AJ ~ 100% of the time preflop too. If you aren't ahead, I think it's because you are splitting with another QT

you are correct here of course... he is on the button and AJ would normally be a raise for this guy

Scouser in Dub

Mac why would you reckon 77 to be part of his range in hand 2, wouldn't he have c-bet that given your read/history on him?

Macspower

Scouser in Dub wrote:

Mac why would you reckon 77 to be part of his range in hand 2, wouldn't he have c-bet that given your read/history on him?

Agreed.... he could have floated along with 77 but i seriously doubt it... now that he has shoved I'm almost sure I'm facing 99

BobSloane

I'd instacall with the 66 too but I think you should have value bet a bit more on the river in the first place.
I always find it amazing how some limit players can lay down situations like hand 3 getting the huge price.

Macspower

Ok results and many thanks for the input...

Hand 1

I folded...... player 1 had two pair J8 and player2 had a set of 7's... what either of them were doing in the 3 bet pot I dunno... whatever about the 77 guy as he had implied odds from 2 players when he came in..

Hand 2

as discussed above I don't think this is an instacall but nevertheless I called and saw the expected 99..

Hand 3

I called and the result showed how badly i played this one... He had A8 for the house but only caught it on the river.. If I 3 bet the flop we wouldn't be having this discussion nad hand would have been over...

Mac

RoundTower

BobSloane wrote:

I'd instacall with the 66 too but I think you should have value bet a bit more on the river in the first place.
I always find it amazing how some limit players can lay down situations like hand 3 getting the huge price.

I find it amazing how some limit players can call with 33 here, but each to his own.

dvdfan

I can sympathise somewhat with what mac is saying in Hand 2 when you have a really really good read on a player and your very sure your beat sometimes considering folding isnt as bad as people make it out regardless of what hand you have.

On the other hand sometimes your perception of what hes hand means can be skewed and thats where the problem is, like when you post a hand saying player x is very aggressive post flop and yet hes aggression stats clearly shows hes not, somewhere along the way you obviously percieved him as aggressive where he probably just hit a good run of hands. The other problem is hes range, we all raise/call etc every now and then with hands we normally wouldnt/shouldnt due to bordem/lack of interest/mistake etc so T8s or even 23s type hands would be a remote possibility.

So if your very sure of your read and very sure hes not making this move with AA or KK then as you say your struggling to see what hand other than air that you beat here and maybe T8 23 or A2s type of hands.

Your getting 1.8/1 on the call and heres your equity against the following range where ive given extra weight to 99

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10 games 0.031 secs 322 games/sec

Board: 9c 2s 6d 2h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 7 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { AcAd, KcKd, 99, 7c7d, Ac2c, Ad2d, Tc8c, Td8d, 3c2c }




Your read seems to suggest an even tighter range so heres another estimate reducing the number of unusual hand types you would expect him to turn up with.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8 games 0.005 secs 1,600 games/sec

Board: 9c 2s 6d 2h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.500% 62.50% 00.00% 5 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 37.500% 37.50% 00.00% 3 0.00 { AcAd, 99, 7c7d, Ac2c, Tc8c, Td8d, 3c2c }



And even with this type of range your 25%:


4 games 0.005 secs 800 games/sec

Board: 9c 2s 6d 2h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 1 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { AcAd, 99 }

If im doing my sums right you need to win 35% of the time so would need one hell of a read here to fold here. If he shows up with AA here 3 times less often than 99 then your still making a +EV call.

ocallagh

Macspower wrote:

now lets look at the river...... I value bet and he check/shoves..... what do we put him on??

it might be reggie, bluffing