Eng V SA & Wales V Aus

PIMPHO

Ladbrokes' handicaps – Friday: England +11 v South Africa; Saturday: Wales +9 v Australia. 10-11 each side, 16 tie.

Not sure about Wales V Aus but LUMP on SA -11 pts. They will trounce the English by 30pts or more!

The price and handicap won't last long as I expect PP to have the handicap at 12-13pts.

myflipflops

Got on them both. The way South Africa played against Samoa in hte second half looked pretty good. Don't think losing de Villiers will be that crippling because steyn looked sharp when he came on and Julies whose joining the squad was superb in the Super 14.

USA + 11 against Tonga looks a bet too, they really held up well against England and guys like Mercis and Emerick are good players. Think another ridiculous handicap accum is in order for the craic!!

PIMPHO

I'm not as confident on the Aus V Wales match as I am on the SA match. Wales playing at home in Cardiff and Aus don't have a great record against the Welsh so I'm a bit sceptical. On paper Aus should destroy them and will probably easily beat them by more than 11pts but I've lumped on SA already so I'll be well happy if that comes in.

Not sure about the USA match, going to stay away from it.

Just checked and as expected the SA odds are no longer available. Revised odds are Eng +11pts 11/10, SA -11pts 8/11.

Must have been a load of cashish lumped on SA!

PP are offering same odds as Ladbrokes earlier, 10/11 -11 pts.

myflipflops

SA are now -13 with ladrokes. They're _12 with Boyles so i might get further involved. Looks like Barkley might be injured now too and i'm guessing Vickery will be suspended so they're in dissarray.

PIMPHO

PP are -15 pts at 10/11!! So glad I lumped on at -11pts 10/11!

AUS -9pts V Wales is no longer available now. Best handicap is with PP & Ladbrokes -10pts 10/11.

If (when) Boks trounce the English, I will be having some of the -10pts on Aus!

COME ON YOU BOKS!

jobless

PIMPHO wrote:

PP are -15 pts at 10/11!! So glad I lumped on at -11pts 10/11!

AUS -9pts V Wales is no longer available now. Best handicap is with PP & Ladbrokes -10pts 10/11.

If (when) Boks trounce the English, I will be having some of the -10pts on Aus!

COME ON YOU BOKS!

i got some of the -11 thankfully.....as regards the wales oz game, wales are at home for this one....would this no affect your confidence as regards the Wallabies covering the handicap....?.... i'm in two minds on this one

PIMPHO

jobless wrote:

i got some of the -11 thankfully.....as regards the wales oz game, wales are at home for this one....would this no affect your confidence as regards the Wallabies covering the handicap....?.... i'm in two minds on this one

Yes it would which is why I'll be having a smallish bet to keep it interesting! But I would still stick my neck out and say that Aus will beat Wales comfortably, around 18-25pts.

prendy

id still fully expect Aus to cover that spread....any other time maybe not but in a world cup- i think so!
SA should hammer england...their losing alot of key players...2 fly halves out!

PIMPHO

HIGH 5!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope Burger is not suspended for the Boks! Even if he is suspended I still fully expect them to annihilate the English!

myflipflops

Burger gone for 4 matches. That's a big blow because he was superb against samoa but in fairness he deserved it. Still, with matt Stevens replacing Vickery, i think South Africa have a big advantage in the front row. Van der Linde and de Randt are monsters and sheridan can't hold the English scrum by himself. All in all, i'm delighted with the -11 handicap at 10/11 (don't think many people would have got on it, nice worl pimpho). With regards the Wales game, the amount i have on it will depend on the south africa result but i think anywhere from -9 to -12 is backable. HOme advantage will count for a while against Wales but remember France tanked them by 30ish a few weeks ago and this Aussie team has the ability to do something similar.

jobless

any info on tonights games lads?
will fiji do a number on Japan?.....i was looking at the alternative handicaps on Paddy Power
Fiji -7 4/7
Fiji -8 4/6
Fiji -9 4/5

any of these appeal to you?.....surely -7 is a cert?

what about italy v romania...again HT handicaps
Italy -10 4/7
Italy -11 4/6
Italy -12 4/5
Italy -14 6/5

any views?

myflipflops

Wow, England have picked Farrell at outhalf. That's a midfield of Farrell, Catt and Jamie Noon. You'd find more pace in an Over 40's team front row. I may get further involved at -15 after that team selection.

Reasonably difficult to judge the Fiji - Japan game. Japan played there 2nd string against Australia because there's only a 4 day turn around between that game and this one. I know Willie Ofahengaue has said Japan could surprise some people
( http://www.planet-rugby.com/Story/0,18259,3890_2693450,00.html)
but i know very little about their players because they all play in Japan. Still, you have to believe Fiji will have too much for them so -9 at 4/5 looks ok. Still, i'd generally avoid a match like this.

Before the New Zealand game, I was planning on backing Italy do get one over on Scotland and make the 1/4 finals. After that, i think their better off watched in the Romania game to see how they recover. Half Time handicaps would be volatile enough beacuse Romania have some top forwards (Petru Balan etc) who may hold there own for 40 or 50 minutes like Georgia did against Argentina. Still, 6/5 looks a big price at -14 for an Italian team that do have class in plenty of places.

prendy

im not so sure bout italy....this is a game romania could produce the goods.
i think it'l be a tight affair and i wouldnt be surprised if Italy only win by less than 7.
i think the england selection has galvanised my opinion of SA for that one by a BIG margin.

PIMPHO

jobless wrote:

any info on tonights games lads?
will fiji do a number on Japan?.....i was looking at the alternative handicaps on Paddy Power
Fiji -7 4/7
Fiji -8 4/6
Fiji -9 4/5

any of these appeal to you?.....surely -7 is a cert?

what about italy v romania...again HT handicaps
Italy -10 4/7
Italy -11 4/6
Italy -12 4/5
Italy -14 6/5

any views?

Where did you get these odds from? PP has Fiji -21 at 10/11? -9 pts is a cert? Quick tell me where you got these odds so I can get a piece of it??

myflipflops

They're half time handicaps Pimpho so don't go crazy!

I was happy to see USA beat the +11 handicap.

PIMPHO

pwhite587 wrote:

They're half time handicaps Pimpho so don't go crazy!

I was happy to see USA beat the +11 handicap.

hehe! i backed USA +10.5 on BF and won by .5 pt! HIGH 5!

Cheers

threebeards

I'm thinking a WC Handicap treble for the weekend.

Australia -9 against Wales (very strong chance of this coming in I think)
South Africa -16 v England - I'd have prefered to have gotten them -11 but still think that South Africa are better than a 16 point handicap
Georgia +49. I have no doubt that Ireland will win and win well but I just feel that in light of the France game next weekend, once the bonus point is secured that wholesale changes will be made. I don't see Ireland winning by 50 points +

Just under 6/1 for the above treble. What do people think?

myflipflops

First 2 are fair enough. -16 still looks ok for south africa as long as they do the job on england up front that i think they will. The Georgia Ireland game is another one i'm loath to touch. It just depends on what Irish team shows up. Georgia were brave against Argentina but if you look at the replay of the game, you'll see that Georgia don't have a defensive system outside of the pack. Argentina only started playing into the space in the last 10 minutes and then they looked dangerous. Eddie O'Sullivan will set us up properly so it's up to the Irish players to play to their ability. If they do that i think this is potentially a 65 point game. That's a big IF though so i'd say Georgia with the handicap are more likely.

How about getting France -58 (i think) against namibia in instead. Namibia have played there big game. France are a wounded animal and at home. Both things (along with the back line France are playing) should lead to a decent hammering.

PIMPHO

Who the man??? Who the man??!!

myflipflops

PIMPHO wrote:

Who the man??? Who the man??!!

All i know is that it's not andy farrell.

Mellor

If you were so sure of SA by 30 points you should of taken it a far higher than +11

threebeards

threebeards wrote:

I'm thinking a WC Handicap treble for the weekend.

Australia -9 against Wales (very strong chance of this coming in I think)
South Africa -16 v England - I'd have prefered to have gotten them -11 but still think that South Africa are better than a 16 point handicap
Georgia +49. I have no doubt that Ireland will win and win well but I just feel that in light of the France game next weekend, once the bonus point is secured that wholesale changes will be made. I don't see Ireland winning by 50 points +

Just under 6/1 for the above treble. What do people think?

I threw €50 on this and threw West Ham to beat M/Boro into the equation as well @ Evs. Heading out to watch the rugby now. C'mon Ireland (but only by about 40:D)

PIMPHO

Mellor wrote:

If you were so sure of SA by 30 points you should of taken it a far higher than +11

When did I say that I was sure that SA would beat Eng by 30pts? Don't think anyone would have backed SA above -20pts let alone -30pts!

Jeeees some people are never happy! You are sad! last time I'll be posting tips here!

jobless

f*** the begruders Pimpo....keep posting ur tips....

actually a good one i saw was SA to win the world cup 8/11 without NZ in the betting.
they can only meet NZ in the final as they are on the other side of the draw...SA will play wales in the next round so thats more or less a bye to the semis.....where they could play Ire/Arg or scot....8/11 to get to the final is value i think (assuming NZ get to the final)

PIMPHO

Ya fock them is right! Pack of kn@bs!! Ya I saw that bet on StanJames. Its a bit better on BF 1.76 but after the 5% commission it works out the same. Are you going big on it as it seems pretty straight forward for them to reach the final?

jobless

dunno if ill go that big...there's a chance they could face france in the semis so that would make me feel a bit uneasy....but i still think its value so will have some sort of bet...

myflipflops

Mellor wrote:

If you were so sure of SA by 30 points you should of taken it a far higher than +11

why would you take it at higher than -11 when you can get your max at that handicap?

How about this bet lads - i just put €500 on South Africa to win the cup at 5.1 on Betfair. At this point, they can't meet NewZealand until the final and they'll play Wales (or possibly Fiji) in the quarters. I think it's safe to assume they'll win that match at which point i'll consider getting out of it but more than likely will leave it run til the semi final. That will be against either the Argies or (less likely) France. I'm assuming whoever wins Irelands group will beat the runner up of New Zealand's group (prob Scotland but maybe Italy). If it's France, i'll lay, if it's anyone else i'll let it run and hopefully then face a position for the final where i can lay off for a green book on both sides. I think it's a reasonably low risk way of opposing New Zealand.

PIMPHO

Hope ye got on Portugal +44pts at evens last night! Cleaned up I did! :P

badbrian

PIMPHO wrote:

hehe! i backed USA +10.5 on BF and won by .5 pt! HIGH 5!
Hope ye got on Portugal +44pts at evens last night! Cleaned up I did! :P

Two pieces of aftertiming. zzzzzzz......

Killme00

Any idea on the handicaps for England vs Samoa and NZ first string vs Scotland 2nd string

PIMPHO

Wales V Japs tonight. Handicap of 37 points. I'm undecided. Thoughts.......?

Killme00

Wales need a big game, i can see them winning by 37. Japan will stay close until about 50 mins but thats it.

Also a nice treble for the weekend:

Ireland +14 10/11
Samoa +16 5/6
Tonga +42 10/11

PIMPHO

Killme00 wrote:

Wales need a big game, i can see them winning by 37. Japan will stay close until about 50 mins but thats it.

Also a nice treble for the weekend:

Ireland +14 10/11
Samoa +16 5/6
Tonga +42 10/11

]

If that's the case then you'd back Jap +18 half time Handicap.

Not so sure about Samoa or Tonga though and even Ireland!

myflipflops

Killme00 wrote:

Tonga +42 10/11

This looks a great bet alright, it's the Springboks 2nd team (still pretty good though ) and the Tongans have been surprisingly durable so far. They could porb do with keeping 15 men on the pitch though.

Killme00

Ok my weekend treble will be:

Tonga +42 vs SA 10/11
Samoa +16 vs ENG 5/6
NZ -?? vs SCOT 10/11 it doesnt matter..scotland second string NZ too good baby