MTT - Just before FT, TT spot

Mellor

MTT, 30 runners, 12 remain
Im just over average stack. Average is about 3300
Table had been tight enough, with most pushes getting through, but everynow and again they get called, and some of the hands have been quite bad. Callers and pushers.


iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Blinds 150/300

Button (1255)
SB Hero (4650)
BB (4540)
UTG (730)
UTG+1 (1965)
CO-1 (2870)
CO (2330)

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with T T
UTG moves all-in for 730, 2 folds, CO moves all-in for 2330, Button moves all-in for 1255, Action to hero??

I suspect that UTG has any two, and buttons range is quite large, bad loose player. Only worried about the CO

2180 to call. c.half my stack
pot stands at 4765

kryogen

am i reading this correct yes? you are questioning whether to get involved in a 4 way all in this close to the final table for half your stack with TT????

its a fold for me anyway, you are either behind or are going to be dodging alot of bullets! the first guy can push with a lot of hands here, and the second guy can re push with a quite wide range in this spot too, but when the next guy ships i have to get out of the way, i cant see you being ahead here much actually, the button should be QQ+ why else would he over call?

fold and watch in astonishment at the hands that turn up, then vomit when the flop arrives with a couple of tens?:D

mdwexford

Insta-fold, 3 all-ins, you're up against a ton of overs at best

Mellor

UTG should have any two here, he has an M<2 and the blinds are comming.
CO has played ok so far, bad deck has him short. His range should be wide enough against the raiser.
Button is a bad player. QQ+ is never his range, he has been looking for a spot to push I imagine. Takes this one for value, If I had to give him a range its 55+, KJ+, A5+

kryogen

ok but even taken those reads,you are going to be gambling for half your stack when you dont really need to imo, your second in chips on this table.... there is gtd to be one maybe two eliminated in the hand, if you call and (most likely) lose then you are in trouble and will have to find a hand to push with very soon...

i definatly wait for a better spot then this. unless you got mad avoiding overcards skills i just sit this on out.

Mellor

ill wait a bit and post the results and my thinking behind the thread

kryogen

aye ill check back in the morning then, maybe you should leave it till the afternoon if you want more replies, but i gotta say it seems like a pretty standard fold to me, regardless of the result!

Captain Tom

id probably call here. given reads and how shallow the stacks are the range's of all 3 players should be pretty wide. structure is obviously ridic bad aswell. it's gonna be a gamblefest and this seems like a decent spot to gamble.

this might be the kinda spot that players with a good knowledge of cEV and $EV might be able to analyse better though.

also, loldonkaments.

mdwexford

You're getting about 2.2 on your money and even allowing for huge ranges you need 3/1 to make the call correct

127,680,235 games 213.422 secs 598,252 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.225% 14.71% 00.51% 18785516 653982.50 { random }
Hand 1: 27.264% 26.18% 01.08% 33430044 1380387.00 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 23.834% 22.80% 01.04% 29108244 1323377.00 { 55+, A5s+, KJs+, A5o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 33.677% 32.74% 00.93% 41805632 1193172.50 { TT }


---

Mellor

mdwexford wrote:

You're getting about 2.2 on your money and even allowing for huge ranges you need 3/1 to make the call correct

127,680,235 games 213.422 secs 598,252 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.225% 14.71% 00.51% 18785516 653982.50 { random }
Hand 1: 27.264% 26.18% 01.08% 33430044 1380387.00 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 23.834% 22.80% 01.04% 29108244 1323377.00 { 55+, A5s+, KJs+, A5o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 33.677% 32.74% 00.93% 41805632 1193172.50 { TT }


---

With those ranges, I am just over 33%.
Break even for 33% is 2/1 not 3/1
With that range 2.2/1 is +EV calling
Probably still tight ranges too

This is exactly why I posted this thread. The actually hands and also my ranges were giving me 31-35%


I'll leave it up. The more I think of their ranges, giving table action and the state of UTG. The more I think I should of called.
For the record, I folded

mdwexford

Duh, i suck, yes 2/1 of course, trying to do too many things at once.

I still fold though, think ranges have to be tighter than that.

Hitman Actual

My first reaction was easy fold, but given the loose ranges that you think the other players are pushing with, this could be really close (getting such a nice price). I'd probably err on the side of caution and just fold though; I find it hard to define accurate ranges in three/four way all-ins.

Is it close to the money? If it is, just fold. Marginal CEV usually means -$EV, going by ICM.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Mellor

Top 5 get paid.

My first instinct was fold. Which i did.
The cards they turned over were 99, AJ, K9 in that order I think.
This game me a % of winning at about 35-36% much more than the 31% I needed to break even.
the more I thought about it, the hands seamed pretty typical for what I could of expected, 3 overs. And i think folding was -EV

12 left 5 paid, is this too far from a ICM calc. Could somebody run it?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Mellor

Thought so, and cEV is +++

RoundTower

my first instinct was fold but I think you should shove.

Mellor

RoundTower wrote:

my first instinct was fold but I think you should shove.

Mine was too, and with 20 seconds to act thats what I did.

But after thinking about it more, I think I should of called shoved based on ranges. The CO players range is should be quite big, he only has the dealer and the blinds to act on a hand were UTG pushed ATC.
The dealer may or may not know this ( I doubr it), but he is uber loose and I don't rate his range as all that tight.

The hand is defo not the insta-fold it first appears to be.

mrflash

Do you like the idea of racing against at least 3 overcards, which is pretty much certain in this spot.
it is an instafold hand

NeoSlicerZ

Ship, it's a crapshoot. TT is golden, and you're alive afterwards to rebuild your stack if needed.

Mellor

mrflash wrote:

Do you like the idea of racing against at least 3 overcards, which is pretty much certain in this spot.
it is an instafold hand

for those odds, its +EV

BobSloane

This is a pretty tight situation. I'd probably bottle it and fold but in the context of the situation the tournament has become you should probably call. Win it and you have a stack of 9000 and probably become better than even money to win the tounament. Lose it and you become a less than average stack but a double up will see you back to where you were.
A ten will almost certainly win the hand for you and you're 16 or 17 % to hit that! Also if your hand holds up against the cutoffs its not so crippling