PLO, suited board, odds question.

luckylucky

In Omaha If a flop comes all of one suit say hearts and you have no heart in your hand. What are the odds when h-u that your opponent has at least 2 hearts, furthermore if you have 2 opponents what are the odds that at least one of them has 2 or more hearts?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

careca

its a lot trickier to assign hand ranges in omaha. You might be able to narrow it down a bit, but its not like holdem where you can assign the ranges based on preflop and flop play.

Maybe others would disagree with me but I feel unlike holdem, you are reevaluating their hand ranges on every street, depending on the betting.

luckylucky

careca wrote:

its a lot trickier to assign hand ranges in omaha. You might be able to narrow it down a bit, but its not like holdem where you can assign the ranges based on preflop and flop play.

Maybe others would disagree with me but I feel unlike holdem, you are reevaluating their hand ranges on every street, depending on the betting.

Yeah I agree with careca, the situation in omaha vs. hold em is very different. There's many hands the guy could have and the question whether they have 2 hearts in their hand is very much an odds problem and a straightforward mathematical calculation I think would suffice much more than it would do in hold em.

Anyway in case we got off the original topic, it's an answer I'm interested in. Specifically last night I think I played a hand badly after re-raising preflop getting half my stack in and had 2 loose callers whose hand ranges were pretty massive. I caught a small bit of the board but had no hearts and with about 1150 in the middle I just thought fcuk it i just shoved the remaining 350 I had, I think it was a very bad move in my part but I'm really not too sure what the percentages that one of these guys have 2 or more hearts. My ballpark guesstimate is about 20% each. I might have to get pen to paper or trawl through the internet to see if I can work out or find the answer.

luckylucky

I've found one web page that talks about the odds for this.

http://www.math.sfu.ca/~faculty/alspach/mag80/

From what I gathered what it said is from a purely mathematical point of view, there's a 21% chance that a player would have two hearts. But this can rise if the player is more inclined to play with just suited cards, and obviously in omaha being suited will increase the chances of playing your hand. So Lloyd's point does apply here also, still I think you can combine maths and hand reading to get a rough percentage. In the specific case that I had last night then I reckon the chances that my opponents had two hearts was probably nearer to 30% each as they both liked to call with suited junk, 1 suit normally enough for them though.

5starpool

luckylucky wrote:

In Omaha If a flop comes all of one suit say hearts and you have no heart in your hand. What are the odds when h-u that your opponent has at least 2 hearts, furthermore if you have 2 opponents what are the odds that at least one of them has 2 or more hearts?

Usually about 100% certain I find

I disagree that you can use maths to assign probabilities to a situation like this (well obviously you can, but it isn't the way to go really I think). I think Careca's point is pretty much correct about having to reevaluate based on stret play, type of opponent, best sizes, and also what your hand is. If you are on about continuing with a flopped straight and no real improvers such as a set, then this will get very costly, and to continue because statistically if the cards were random he only has a flush x% of the time, this will be very costly.

I presume this isn't what you were saying, but I am not 100% sure what the full question is.

luckylucky

5starpool wrote:

Usually about 100% certain I find

I disagree that you can use maths to assign probabilities to a situation like this (well obviously you can, but it isn't the way to go really I think). I think Careca's point is pretty much correct about having to reevaluate based on stret play, type of opponent, best sizes, and also what your hand is. If you are on about continuing with a flopped straight and no real improvers such as a set, then this will get very costly, and to continue because statistically if the cards were random he only has a flush x% of the time, this will be very costly.

I presume this isn't what you were saying, but I am not 100% sure what the full question is.

It really was just an odds question. I found the answer of 21% for a total random hand, obviously hands even in omaha aren't totally random and as I said the actual odds is higher but it's nice to know this figure imo.

Yeah of course you wouldn't be continuing with a straight if you were deep stacked. In my actual hand I had less than 1/3rd pot size of chips, so my hand play was ending one way or another on the flop and I should have given up on the flop but that's not really what the post was about.

Again I just wanted the know the odds of this, how you apply that information a game is a whole different ballgame I agree.