SE 500 Tourney - Interesting Spot

The Tourist

The question here is whether it is +€EV to take a marginally -cEV spot late in the tournament. The chip count details may be a bit off here but it's the concept that's important.

Background
Blinds/Ante: 500/1000/100
Three tables remain.
I have just been moved table. The table I have come from has LOTS of chips with a handful of 25-40k stacks and a couple of ~80k stacks. The table I am at now has relatively few chips. Chipleader is around 30k. A few 20k stacks and remaining players less than that. The table is playing tight and passive. One person seems to actually be asleep! It is approx 3:30am and play breaks at 5:15 and will resume the next day. Prize money seems heavily stacked to the top three places.

Action:
8 handed
UTG (Joe)(Covers) limps
Folded to me (17,500k) in the SB with J9o. I complete.
BB (Vera) (13,500k) checks.
(Note: Stack size are those after posting blinds/limping.)

Flop: 8 10 K rainbow. I make a quick decision and check planning to take a free card or, if I feel it's a go, CRAI the flop (comments?)

BB moves all-in
UTG moves all-in.
Fold or call???
Pots odds: 1.99/1
Odds of filling to a straight: 2.18/1

A clear fold in a cash game, but who finds a call here, considering that:
- you may be against a hand with a redraw
- if you win the pot you will be a large chip leader at a tight, passive table and well placed in the tournament
- you may not get a better spot

Comments would be appreciated.

Also, anyone care to put vera and joe on a range here?

Trippie

would this not be more of a call in a cash game due to the fact you can reload and are not effected by tourney life syndrome?

sikes

You might be 2.2/1 to hit the straight, but your not drawing to the nuts, and with two players in the pot with you, J9 is going to be the pits and never in great shape, cos QJ in their range.

I would imagine you are going to need close to 3/1 to make the call.

sikes

Any reads on the players in the hand? I have no idea who either are.

The Tourist

I think, given the action, and my experience of the players involved, I'd be very unlucky to be against a higher straight draw here. I may be wrong but I'd be more expecting someone with a redraw to a house.

The Tourist

Trippie wrote:

would this not be more of a call in a cash game due to the fact you can reload and are not effected by tourney life syndrome?

In a cash game we need to be getting much better than 2.18/1 to make this profitable in the long run.

Trippie

ye sorry, i got the pot odds/odds of hitting mixed up.

sikes

Running into QJ isn't the worst thing in the world, its the fact you are up against 2 players. Getting 2/1 against one player with a given range is totally different when you are up against two getting 2/1.

Dr_Colossus

just a quick question, how do you get the odds of hitting a straight as 2.18:1? You have 8 cards to make the straight therefore are the odds not more like 2.9:1?
I'd fold here, you'll still have 16BBs left and have position in the next hand. Minimum I can put Vera on here is JQ.

kebabfest

If Vera is going all in here I would say she has K8\K10\KQ\KJ or 88. Even 10 10 is possible but unlikely.
Would be very surprised if it was simply JQ.
Joe would call here with a similiar sort of range, but would add JQ
You're marginally getting odds to call, but I find a fold here.

Dr_Colossus

I agree kebabfest, by minimum JQ for Vera I mean that's the worst possible hand I can put her on but do think she wouldn't move like that in first position without a very strong K or two pair as you said.
I don't know who Joe is so can't comment on his holdings.

sikes

I really dont think we are getting anywhere close to the odds to call, we need 3/1 if we talk about the ranges above.

Board: Ks Th 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.482% 33.82% 03.66% 8454558 915354.00 { TT, 88, KTs+, K8s, QJs, KTo+, K8o }
Hand 1: 26.504% 25.74% 00.77% 6434169 191589.00 { J9o }
Hand 2: 36.014% 32.28% 03.74% 8068911 934071.00 { KK+, TT, 88, KTs+, K8s, QJs, KTo+, K8o, QJo }

Also, QJ is a marginally worse hand to get it in with.

kebabfest

Thats gas. Would never have though that JQ is marginally worse in this scenario. Obviously due to potentially winning cards been taken by other players.

RoundTower

First I don't think you are getting a good price to call, so the decision is more than slightly -cEV. But even if it were close I don't think there are many spots where it is worth paying much above the odds to triple up. The exception being if there is a fish with a big stack, or a really good cash game going.

The Tourist

My only read was I didn't put either of these players on a draw here. It doesn't make much of a difference but here it is.

Board: Ks Th 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.392% 29.39% 00.00% 316900 0.00 { Jc9d}
Hand 1: 35.304% 32.12% 03.18% 346364 34277.00 { KK+, TT, 88, KTs, K8s, T8s, KTo, K8o, T8o }
Hand 2: 35.304% 32.12% 03.18% 346364 34277.00 { KK+, TT, 88, KTs, K8s, T8s, KTo, K8o, T8o }

Giving me winning odds of 2.4/1.

sikes

Still there's a problem in your equity calculation, and that is that both players have the exact same range. When this happens all of the second players equity comes from the first player.

The Tourist

sikes wrote:

Still there's a problem in your equity calculation, and that is that both players have the exact same range. When this happens all of the second players equity comes from the first player.

Not sure that I understand this fully, or how to calculate it differently? While that in itself is interesting, we are kind of getting away from my main reason for posting which is: who would accept payment of 2/1 for the chance to triple up at odds of 2.5/1 at a key point in the tournament, when the following conditions hold: (1) there is a good chance that a big stack could steal a lot of chips from this particular table (2) there are not many chips at the table. One thing to consider is that you have 17.5 big blinds, and each round is costing you 2,300, so how much will you have by the time you find a genuine +cEV spot, and how does that compare to your current situation? Hard to quantify..

sikes

The Tourist wrote:

Not sure that I understand this fully, or how to calculate it differently? While that in itself is interesting, we are kind of getting away from my main reason for posting which is: who would accept payment of 2/1 for the chance to triple up at odds of 2.5/1 at a key point in the tournament, when the following conditions hold: (1) there is a good chance that a big stack could steal a lot of chips from this particular table (2) there are not many chips at the table. One thing to consider is that you have 17.5 big blinds, and each round is costing you 2,300, so how much will you have by the time you find a genuine +cEV spot, and how does that compare to your current situation? Hard to quantify..

Well if there arent many chips at the table or no other big stacks, theres really very little value in having a big stack. You should be be finding +EV spots all the time, stealing, restealing, just generally being better than others. I think this is such a huge -cEV spot that really even if there was a spewtard with a huge stack, i would still think it is -$EV.

As for the ranges being the same, its not really that interesting, but I dont think they have the same range, surely BB raise KK/AA and also she can have draws that UTG cant etc.

Hitman Actual

sikes wrote:

Still there's a problem in your equity calculation, and that is that both players have the exact same range. When this happens all of the second players equity comes from the first player.

I don't follow this bit either. Care to expand?

kebabfest

Mr Tourist could you let us know what they had so one of the lads can put the cards through the equity blender ?

The Tourist

sikes wrote:

Well if there arent many chips at the table or no other big stacks, theres really very little value in having a big stack. You should be be finding +EV spots all the time, stealing, restealing, just generally being better than others. I think this is such a huge -cEV spot that really even if there was a spewtard with a huge stack, i would still think it is -$EV.

I don't agree with this. I think that, if I have an edge at this table, that the edge will manifest itself over the "long run". Having a big stack allows a comfort zone in this regard. Ie If the first time I try to steal the blinds I get called, and then (eg) get check/raised on the flop and have to give up the hand, I can live to fight another day. With 17BB I have maybe one raise/continuation bet opportunity before I have to start auto-pushing. This is not ideal from a divirsification point of view.

sikes wrote:

As for the ranges being the same, its not really that interesting, but I dont think they have the same range, surely BB raise KK/AA and also she can have draws that UTG cant etc.

Good point on the AA/KK but I don't expect Vera to be pushing with a draw. Maybe I'm wrong.

sikes

lenny_leonard wrote:

I don't follow this bit either. Care to expand?

Thats not really worded right sorry. It was about this hand, by doing the equity calc this way, its really makes no difference if you put in 1 or 2 players with the same range, as our win % is roughly the same, however, when there are two players in the hand the chance that one of them has a draw goes far up, and i dont think its right to exclude it.

sikes

The Tourist wrote:

I don't agree with this. I think that, if I have an edge at this table, that the edge will manifest itself over the "long run". Having a big stack allows a comfort zone in this regard. Ie If the first time I try to steal the blinds I get called, and then (eg) get check/raised on the flop and have to give up the hand, I can live to fight another day. With 17BB I have maybe one raise/continuation bet opportunity before I have to start auto-pushing. This is not ideal from a divirsification point of view.

You still have an edge auto pushing! I know where youre coming from but I dont really think you are getting near enough the odds to make this a consideration.

Itsallzen

I can't find it in myself to make a call here against two all-in players. Given that both have been playing relatively passively in line with the table I have to believe that you are up against made hands that you will have to outdraw - and as per a previous comment you aren't even drawing to the nuts.

Even against one all-in I don't think your M is low or desperate enough to get any true value here. I have to believe that a few blind steals to maintain your stack while waiting on a better spot is the way to go.

Of course, that said I do play like an old woman! (apologies to any old women)

strewelpeter

The Tourist wrote:

... One person seems to actually be asleep!

LOL!

That must of been me because I can't remember exactly how this one ended up!
That was you in the black shirt, yea? I was in seat 4 two to the Left of Joe.

I do remember thinking about limping after Joe but thought better of it I folded something that would have got me into trouble if I'd limped.

The Tourist

Dr_Colossus wrote:

just a quick question, how do you get the odds of hitting a straight as 2.18:1? You have 8 cards to make the straight therefore are the odds not more like 2.9:1?

I just got it from a table.

The Tourist

kebabfest wrote:

Mr Tourist could you let us know what they had so one of the lads can put the cards through the equity blender ?

Vera had two pair, kings & eights I think. I can't remember exactly what Joe had but he definitely had a king (KQ maybe). I folded.

The Tourist

strewelpeter wrote:

LOL!

That must of been me because I can't remember exactly how this one ended up!
That was you in the black shirt, yea? I was in seat 4 two to the Left of Joe.

I do remember thinking about limping after Joe but thought better of it I folded something that would have got me into trouble if I'd limped.

No, I wasn't thinking about you.
Edit: make that two people were asleep, and I was only half awake

How did you finish up?