Good bets for the world cup

Snickers Man

Paddy Power are offering the following prices today for the World cup outright winners.

New Zealand 4 - 7
South Africa 11 - 2
France 6 - 1
Australia 9 - 1
Ireland 20 - 1
England 25 - 1
Argentina 66 - 1
Wales 100 - 1


NZ are unbackable. South Africa are next favourites but I reckon both France and Australia are currently at good prices, but these could drop precipitously shortly.

I suspect France's price is high at the moment while there is still a slim chance they could come second in the group and face NZ in the quarter final. If and when they beat Ireland, their price will come way down very fast. Get your money on early.

Similarly for Australia. They could yet prove the theory that their land is really God's Own Country by progressing to the final without having to play a single strong in-form team. They should top their group (v Wales) without breaking sweat. Then in the Q final they will probably play England, who I don't think are any match for S Africa in the group stages. Not a huge test for Australia there.

Then they will play, in the semi final, the winner of the Cardiff Quarter Final. Most people will expect this to be NZ, but I reckon this Irish team--which hasn't a hope in hell of winning the tournament outright, 20-1 me arse--could pull out the one great performance they will need in this tournament and beat the All Blacks for the first time.

We will then get no further, having been jaded by successive games against France, Argentina and new Zealand. Aus will therefore get to the final (against either France or South Africa) without really being tested.

I fancy an each way flutter on both France and Australia. with maybe SA as a third bet in reserve.

Whaddya reckon?

jameshayes

France at 6-1 is a bargain...

I think they are sure winners... worth a tenner

jameshayes

france are 7-1 with www.coral.co.uk

scargill

france are 8-1 on betfair at the moment (9.2)

jameshayes

nice return on a 10euro bet!!

besty

Might be tempted to throw a tenner on France and Australia!

jackbhoy

Did Disco to be top tryscorer a few weeks back at 40/1.

Also did Habana at 20/1 long time back.

I'm hoping Henry rotates his starting XV in pools and that might limit Howlett/Sivivatu/Rokocoko from scoring bucketloads against Romania and Portugal, if not above is screwed

Snickers Man

jackbhoy wrote:

Did Disco to be top tryscorer a few weeks back at 40/1.

Also did Habana at 20/1 long time back.

I'm hoping Henry rotates his starting XV in pools and that might limit Howlett/Sivivatu/Rokocoko from scoring bucketloads against Romania and Portugal, if not above is screwed

who is BOD going to score all his tries against? He'll be missing the Georgia and Namibia games in all probability. I think Carl Haymans or Chris jack will score more tries against portugal OR Romania than Drico will against france and Argentina.

Jackz

Disco is Hickie.

Snickers Man

My mistake. Still don't think he's going to score as many as even the slowest New Zealander when they come up against Portugal or Romania.

Chucky the tree

England are a fantastic price.

KevIRL

Ireland 5-2 not to qualify from the pool. V good price

Kalashnikov_Kid

From paddypower.com today:

Habana 14/1 for top try scorer

Samoa to make 1/4 final at 9/1

NZ not to win world cup at 5/2

zAbbo

The only real value on rugby bets are handicap based, usually on individual matches.

komodosp

If you bet on the top try-scorer, but there are multiple top try-scorers with the same number of tries, can you still win the bet?

O'Gara 50-1 to be Ireland's top tryscorer on totesport... considering he was the top try-scorer in the 6 nations...

Dirk Gently

I put €50 on France @ 8-1 during the week.

LFC5Times

I think id put the house on South Africa to win their group at 1/3 but unfortunately i dont have a house.

LFC5Times

komodosp wrote:

If you bet on the top try-scorer, but there are multiple top try-scorers with the same number of tries, can you still win the bet?

O'Gara 50-1 to be Ireland's top tryscorer on totesport... considering he was the top try-scorer in the 6 nations...

Id say the odds 50/1 in the case of O'Gara will be divided by how many joint top scorers.

LFC5Times

Group C of the World Cup without New Zealand is a straight match between Scotland and Italy.

They also play each other in the last match of the group - in a "winner makes q-final" match.

Italy have a 10 day rest between their second last and the Scotland match while Scotland have 6 days between their second last (V New Zealand) and the Italy match.

Wonder if Scotland will rest a few of their key players in the match against New Zealand ?

Anyway according to paddypower to win Group C without New Zealand you can get

Scotland 4/5
Italy 10/11

Personally cant pick between either team,anybody else have any thoughts ?

zAbbo

Take Italy, thats where my money is, Their front row is awesome, are very capable line out operators (Bortalami !) and in Parisse they have the best no.8 around. If they can sort their 9/10 combo, and create anything from their backline they should beat Scotland.

komodosp

O'Gara 50/1 though? Do they know something I don't? Horgan & O'Driscoll are out for both Georgia & Namibia, right?

jameshayes

There back for Georgia i think?

Linford

komodosp wrote:

If you bet on the top try-scorer, but there are multiple top try-scorers with the same number of tries, can you still win the bet?

If this happens your bet will more than likely be treated the same as a dead-heat in horse racing... If there are two top try scorers and one is yours you will get back about half what you would had he been top try scorer outright (it should be set out in the rules)

wixfjord

Ive Habana at 14/1 ew for top try scorer, Carter at 6/4 for top points scorer (hopefully henry will play him against portugal) and france to win at 5/1. Thinking bout backing rog for top irish try scorer too nice odds.

laserryan

Ireland are out to 36.0 on Betfair right now which just seems plain crazy to me. Granted there has been quite aserious plunge on the French and given that they are in our group in would make sense that both our price and that of Arg should lengthen but cmon....35-1??

Seems a bit dismissive if u ask me. I'll be taking some of that.

Re the Top Try Scorere, it's hard to look beyound NZ wingers given how much possesion they are likely to have in the Pool stages. 5-1 Roko could look very big in a few weeks!

jackbhoy

Snickers Man wrote:

My mistake. Still don't think he's going to score as many as even the slowest New Zealander when they come up against Portugal or Romania.

Snickers how can you be from D4 and not know who Disco is?

As I said I'm taking a chance that NZ will rest players and rotate as they have done previously and anyway theres no value in backing NZ players they are all very short prices, Hickie is good value at 40/1 as he should play in every game, may well score 3/4 each in first 2 games and from there who knows!!

nesf

laserryan wrote:

Ireland are out to 36.0 on Betfair right now which just seems plain crazy to me. Granted there has been quite aserious plunge on the French and given that they are in our group in would make sense that both our price and that of Arg should lengthen but cmon....35-1??

South Africa at 10-1 is more tempting tbh. Someone got 19-1 on them apparently. Lucky so and so..

komodosp

france to win at 5/1

5/1? I got them at 10/1 about a week ago! Betfair...

londonmunster

I have been looking at some of the spread markets as a lot of the fixed odds prices don't appeal to me much.. Sporting Index have Ireland priced up at 27 - 30 on their outright index, which pays 100 for winning etc.. down to 50 for reaching a semi, and 35 for reaching a quarter. seems they are pricing it like the rest of us see it, we finish second to France and go out at the hands of NZ.. on the other hand, if we do beat the French and Argies and avoid the All-Blacks, or even beat them as one super-optimist predicts above, then a buy at 30 will net you 20 points profit at least..

Another market they have which I am fascinated by is their 'kicking metres' bet, its how many metres will all of Irelands converted kicks at goal come to.. I am doing my research, but it looks attractive to buy to me at 895metres.. welcome your thoughts...

patmac

Chucky the tree wrote:

England are a fantastic price.

Wilko's in trouble so no value there(anyway I wouldn't back them if they were a 1000/1). I think the Argies @ 66/1 represent good value seriously underated team with one of the bestpacks in the world. Early match betting (Ladbrokes):
France -11 10/11
Argentina +11 10/11
Tie 16/1

New Zealand -40 10/11
Italy +40 10/11
Tie 16/1

Australia -55 10/11
Japan +55 10/11
Tie 16/1

England -52 10/11
USA +52 10/11
Tie 16/1

Wales -32 evens
Canada +32 4/5
Tie 16/1

South Africa -35 10/11
Samoa +35 10/11
Tie 16/1

Scotland -60 10/11
Portugal +60 10/11
Tie 16/1

Ireland -60 10/11
Namibia +60 10/11
Tie 16/1
Argentina+11, New Zealand-40, USA+52
6/1 treble?

londonmunster

Georgia +44.5 are a decent bet tonight, can see them scoring about 10-11 points, and the argies wont score 50-60.. can see them winning by less than 40.. selling their supremacy with Sporting is also a decent bet, but maybe one to trade out of in running when there is only 10 points in it at half time!!

someone mentioned above Habana at 14/1 top try scorer.. thats looking a very nice bet indeed right now..

maxi-twist

Any team other than NZ at 6-4 isnt too bad value is it?Although no team have really looked like beating them so far.

Leon11

no point in backing NZ whatsoever, you'll get the same odds on them to win the final as you would on getting them to win the world cup now.

nesf

maxi-twist wrote:

Any team other than NZ at 6-4 isnt too bad value is it?

It's actually not bad at all. Considering how many games are left and the large number of hurdles for the All-Blacks to get over.

maxi-twist

There in the harder side of the draw aswell.

QF- ireland or france or argentina (i could see us or france winning this one not the argies tho)

SF- probably australia

F- probably south africa

Each one of those matches could be lost (depending what team turns up)

thought it was worth 20 euro at 6-4.

nesf

Personally I think a treble on Aus, SA, NZ winning their pools is worth taking. Very short odds but tbh it's almost a foregone conclusion really.

londonmunster

well done Georgia, great performance! nice 12 point profit on the spreads, plus the 4/5 on them losing by less than 44pts..

a buy of the time of the USA's first try at 45 is my bet for today, I can't actually see them scoring many tries if any.. Tonga playing their first game will be fired up, and USA tired after their hammering of England...

londonmunster

another 2 pts profit.. a profit is a profit as they say!