$50 NL ATo OTB vs SB,BB Flop: A T Kr

coillcam

Villain in BB I have no history with, his stats are 28/18/2.3 over 100.

Paddy Power 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button coillcam ($65.65) A T
SB malo71 ($65.21)
BB ShipItDonkey ($51.70)
UTG angifromberlin ($52.00)
UTG+1 nowonda ($53.71)
CO zhuk33 ($70.00)

Preflop: , 3 folds, coillcam raises to 2.00, malo71 calls 1.75, ShipItDonkey calls 1.50.

Flop (6.00) A T K
malo71 checks, ShipItDonkey bets 5.00, coillcam calls 5.00, malo71 calls 5.00.

Turn (21.00) 5
malo71 checks, ShipItDonkey bets 21.00, I ?????

Flop call/raise? good/bad.

Turn. Ship/fold ?

coillcam

*Bumped*

Come on guys, any advice really appreciated here.

RoundTower

you have underrepresented your hand on the flop, and all the hands that beat you like to reraise preflop. So you can't really fold here, and the pot is big enough that you should just ship it in and hope to get called by a worse ace or worse 2 pair.

valor

so far so good.

I actually really want to fold here, he is showing extreme strength pretty much committing himself vs 2 opponents on a very dangerous board, with no draws. I think he will have JQ here alot. However, I think given its $50NL and K10/other aces are probably in his range I would shove now

RedJoker

Any stats on malo71?

What are your stats and how often do you steal? Have you been stealing much on this table so far?

I'd expect a 28/18 to be 3 betting AA/KK/AK and probably 1010 preflop.

He could have QJ or A10 but the fact that he donk bet here would usually suggest he doesn't have a monster.

Unless you have some notes that he donk bets monsters I'm probably getting it all in on the turn here. However, I might play it differently depending on malo71's stats, if he's unknown then I ship it in.

Hitman Actual

Just get the money in, Ritchie. All you're worried about is QJ, as I'm sure he raises TT, KK, AA, AK preflop. And if you're unlucky to run into QJ, you still have some equity in the pot.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

dvdfan

I dunno, this is a very strong line, when i see someone lead a 3way pot with relatively ok stats enough to know hes not a complete donk then you can be pretty sure he has 2 pair+ here, but i also cant see him playing the nuts this hard with 2 flop callers i would expect him to try and keep in smaller aces and it just seems like hes protecting a hand but maybe hes afraid of the FD.

Saying that im struggling to put him on a hand, A5 is a bit unlikely, maybe A5s, Ak unlikely, QJ unlikely so AT and 55 look the most likely here, i really dont see you being ahead enough here the way it was played simply because i think at 50nl against this type of player the line hes taken is very very strong and we can fold now before getting pot committed.

coillcam

Disclaimer:

Just back from the pub.

dvdfan wrote:

I dunno, this is a very strong line, when i see someone lead a 3way pot with relatively ok stats enough to know hes not a complete donk then you can be pretty sure he has 2 pair+ here, but i also cant see him playing the nuts this hard with 2 flop callers i would expect him to try and keep in smaller aces and it just seems like hes protecting a hand but maybe hes afraid of the FD.

Saying that im struggling to put him on a hand, A5 is a bit unlikely, maybe A5s, Ak unlikely, QJ unlikely so AT and 55 look the most likely here, i really dont see you being ahead enough here the way it was played simply because i think at 50nl against this type of player the line hes taken is very very strong and we can fold now before getting pot committed.

OK dvdfan your line of thinking was what was kinda going through my mind at the time.

(Not saying your line of thinking is flawed) I agree with it for the most part TBH, his stats do propose semi-intelligent bordering on intelligent play in the given hand.

But TBH I feel my line of thinking was flawed as I am experiencing my first "downswing" - A combo of 50/50 bad luck(varince)/bad luck(variance) induced and maladjusted bad play.

For the hand I folded on the turn. I just had predetermined before the flop was layed that AK / big PP/QJo/QJs was there( based on the previous $hite that happened 2 me @ this level :rolleyes: ) I felt IMHO at the time this was a fold.

I have since zen'd out/meditated/found my happy place/whatever and realized that this is definitely a +EV to shove as AQ/AJ and A9 down will show up enough here along with KT to see a profit.

If you look at the hand in essence AT for me means AA/TT are unlikey never mind a RR on me PF, AK and KK more than likely PF would have RR ( based on his aggro-ish stats) also which leaves AQ, AJ, KT, QJ and lesser connecting AX so I win more often than not(In theory).

This was an excellent hand for me to analyze on so many levels, cheers guys for your responses.

I not for the first time have found a huge eureka moment for my game progression, in reading this and other threads. Boards is the shiznit.

Cheers,
Richie.