go broke here? 2/4 AK spot

El Stuntman

2/4 6-max

I'm playing 700, villain covers after winning a buy-in in the previous orbit (off me) in a set over set situation. Villain is solid, something like 19/12. Hasn't shown down anything funky in the 100 hands or so I've played with him.

I'm dealt AKo in the CO and make it 14 to play

Villain calls. Everyone else folds.
Pot = 34.

Flop is K95 rainbow
I bet 30, villain calls.
Pot = 94.

Turn is A, completing the rainbow.
I bet 90, villain calls.
Pot = 274

river is a 2.

what's my line?
A tight villain, cold-calling two PSBs on that board, has set off my MUTB-ometer. Who goes broke here?

comments on bet sizing on flop and turn are also appreciated.

Van Dice

How did he/you play the previous sets?!
Wouldn't be so sure he has a set here, most people raise the turn with 55 or 99.
Think I bet/fold river, doubt he raises A9. I probably bet less on the flop and turn but that's cos I always do, the bet sizing is individual and depends what % pot you usually bet.

BigCityBanker

im jamming and getting looked up by worse aces.

El Stuntman

Van Dice wrote:

How did he/you play the previous sets?!

he cold-called a PSB PF and then we went nuts on a JTx flop (he had JJ, I had TT)

pot, pot, pot,all-in, call, ouch was the general gist of it

El Stuntman

BigCityBanker wrote:

im jamming

you just don't have the hair to make such a remark

DeadParrot

BigCityBanker wrote:

im jamming and getting looked up by worse aces.

I gotta say this would probably be my line too.

Van Dice

BigCityBanker wrote:

im jamming and getting looked up by worse aces.

560 behind with 274 in the pot first to act? Assuming we just bet the river I really don't think villain would raise AQ

LuckyLloyd

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Van Dice

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Raise folding is always a bad line IMO. If you aren't sure that a bet from you is 1005 for value then don't bet.

As a general statement I really disagree with that. I'm not looking for spots to bet/fold the whole time, but there are situations where a villain will check behind with lots of hands you beat and would have called a bet, and will bet all the hands that beat you where he would have raised anyway.

(Bet/folding rather than raise/folding, just assuming was typo )

BigCityBanker

LuckyLloyd wrote:

check, call. And by call, I mean call anything. Raise / Bet folding is always a bad line IMO. If you aren't sure that a bet from you is 100% for value then don't bet.

are we not potentially losing value from AQ, AJ etc by checking this river?

El Stuntman

BigCityBanker wrote:

are we not potentially losing value from AQ, AJ etc by checking this river?

I really can't see this villain showing up with either of these after flop action

Hectorjelly

LuckyLloyd wrote:

check, call. And by call, I mean call anything. Raise / Bet folding is always a bad line IMO. If you aren't sure that a bet from you is 100% for value then don't bet.

this is 100% wrong

anyway, in this hand you could bet something like 200 and fold to a raise. You will be getting sick odds but the opponent will never be bluffing or pushing a worse hand. The alternative is to check fold (unless he bets quite small) if you think he is unlikely to call 200 with anything you beat.

Check calling a big bet here is bad play. A vtight guy calls a bet on a K95 board. Ok his range here is something like, AK, a few other kings, 55, and 99 and an mathamatically unlikely KK (very likely given his play though!). There is nothing else for him to have. On the turn he calls a bet despite an ace appearing. So this gets rid of a lot of kings unless he is really stubborn. AK 55 and 99 call. There is a small chance he called a bet on the flop with something like AQ, or A9s.

On the river if you check he is going to bet AK, or a set. He wont bet AQ for value, or any other one pair hand; because the pot is too big and he will worry about being beaten. This isnt a spot where anyone bluffs.

LuckyLloyd

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AmarilloFats

you bet river to get better/equal hands to fold or worse hands to call.

I don't think you can get AK to fold here with a PSb. Obv. sets ain't folding.
worse hands that call - does he show up with KQ,KJ - A9 here???

Would he have called your turn bet with one pair thinking you are just betting the scare card??

jimmii

What numbers are you running at? Makes a big difference if you are 30/25 or 20/15.

Bet sizing is fine and due to the villian calling these size bets I would be a bit apprehensive about betting again. Its really hard to tell what he has here. You might be about to get a call for about $120 by something you beat but probably not much more. Has he tried to trap much? He might have gone crazy with top set as he had the nuts and might now have played bottom set a little slower knowing you are going to bet out a lot I wouldn't be surprised to see 55 here and you get raised if you bet the river.

I don't think a 19/12 often plays A9 or KJ even from the button.

El Stuntman

jimmii wrote:

What numbers are you running at? Makes a big difference if you are 30/25 or 20/15.

more like the latter but I have been very active on this table so villain may have an unduly LAGGish perception of me

jimmii wrote:

I don't think a 19/12 often plays A9 or KJ even from the button.

me either

jimmii

I really don't see him turning up with a worse hand here very often. 55 makes the most sense to me. He's tight, doesn't have the nuts and thinks you are aggressive enough to bet on your own and is more than happy to call. I run around the same as him and against a player I viewed as lag and on a relatively safe board I would play it similar.

El Stuntman

me and LL obviously think alike (which is disturbing on so many levels)

I checked the river

he bet 175

gah, action?

bops

it really looks like KK ...but i'd call coz i'm a station - whatever he has he's played it strange imo

Macspower

LuckyLloyd wrote:

check, call. And by call, I mean call anything. Raise / Bet folding is always a bad line IMO. If you aren't sure that a bet from you is 100% for value then don't bet.

Not often I disagree with you Lloyd but I don't agree with this... There is very often spots where you bet for value and fold to a push....

This is one of them.

As played I call...

BigCityBanker

Ìm not good enough to fold here. ever. pay the man.

RasTa

Would a nit smooth call with a set twice? As played I call the river and expect to see the same hand.

Ste05

I'd pay him off because it's just cheap enough, it's actually a nice little figure for a bet.

I would be scared sh1tless after he called the 2 PSB's; and the turn in particular, the A didn't really help us that much, in fact just made it harder to fold, if we were ahead on the flop we didn't need the A to improve, unless he had K9 (unlikely), it also completes more of our possible range and hardly ever helps him so it's unlikely he'll continue with a float move, and yet he still calls the bet, scary stuff, I think there's a huge chance you are beaten, but I'd still call the River, because the price is just about right for me. But this is about the max I'd be willing to pay.

There's no real draws he can have on the flop, and I actually think this is probably a check fold now, but for 175 I'd have to call just because I'm a station and don't like to fold top 2 for less than a PSB.

jimmii

I'm happily folding here against this guy. He would have checked anything that you beat unless he always intended to float it.

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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valor

I def def def bet this river, $220 or so. I think you can fold to a shove aswell

LuckyLloyd

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kryogen

i am more inclined to agree with llyods thinking on check calling the river seeing that your opponent is probably more likely to bet then to call a bet with a worse hand after you have shown such strength all through the hand, pre flop, post flop etc.... you get a cheap river if your losing and im not sure if you can fold here considering how the last set played out, he raised and re raised on the flop with a set, do you think he smooth calls twice with a set on an AK board? i would have assumed he would raise the turn once the A hit and hoped you had a big one!

put simply i pay the man here, you may be splitting, you may be winning, your probably beat lol...but pay the man!

Van Dice

LuckyLloyd wrote:

No, it really isn't. Because we can't logically put stuff in his range that we beat and that can pay us off on the end. His range is soooo tight that bet folding just seems like a horrendous spew to me.

Bear in mind that this guy won a buy - in off us previously in a set over set situation. Therefore, he probably won't perceive us as a loose cannon - and will be asking himself whether he can pay us off for three streets of value with less than a set if you bet. Now, he may fold AK sometimes I guess - but turing top two into a bluff on a dey board is a little spicy for my tastes.

We checked. He made a made a bet that falls in line with our thinking on the hand. I think calling the 175 is negative EV. But we do split sometimes; people do bluff sometimes in odd spots; and we have top two pair. Crying call.

Ok I agree with the last paragraph. Apart from that I really don't see how anything other than bet/folding is good. In order of dreadfulness
shoving obv
bet/calling
check/folding
check/calling
bet/folding
The set over set is irrelevant as to how he perceives us, as everybody goes broke with a set so that doesn't change anything.

The only possible hand (other than total air, but I think that's incredibly unlikely) that the villain can have where check-calling > bet-folding, is AK.

Van Dice

Also sets are a large part of his range but villain is 19/12, not 2/1 ffs!
Does nobody in villain's shoes ever get to river with a hand less than AK?!

valor

He will have K10/J/Q/9 or A9/5 enough to pay us off on the river imo. People love to call, the turn card was a good one for a second barrel, the range of hands we are representing betting for value is quite thin so he can convince himself we are bluffing etc.

Also we dont really know anything about the guy, 19/12 over 100 hands doesnt mean much but it does mean he likes to call at least a bit, and the set hand teaches us nothing. in general just assume people suck and will pay you off

El Stuntman

valor wrote:

in general just assume people suck and will pay you off

a disturbing lifeview

surely the words 'at poker' should be in there somewhere

connie147

I'm not much of a cash game player and I'd find it hard to fold here.If im behind i'd almost expect to see AA by him as played.But I call the 175.

El Stuntman

RESULTS: I called and lost

Mr.Plough

valor wrote:

in general just assume people suck and will pay you off

love that line

BigCityBanker

El Stuntman wrote:

RESULTS: I called and lost

what did he show?

El Stuntman

BigCityBanker wrote:

what did he show?

sorry he had 55

would just like to say that HJ's post was excellent, one of the best I've read

LuckyLloyd

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phantom_lord

i haven't read any of the replies, but i'd bet 200-220 and grumble grumble fold to a shove.

AmarilloFats

Hectorjelly wrote:

A vtight guy calls a bet on a K95 board. Ok his range here is something like, AK, a few other kings, 55, and 99 and an mathamatically unlikely KK (very likely given his play though!). There is nothing else for him to have. On the turn he calls a bet despite an ace appearing. So this gets rid of a lot of kings unless he is really stubborn. AK 55 and 99 call. There is a small chance he called a bet on the flop with something like AQ, or A9s.

.

given the OP read on villain and the fact that hands like A9 are considered unlikely - isn't betting the turn a mistake
did the ace improve the relative strength of our hand?

sikes

not betting the turn would be a disaster cause we pretty much always bet it when we dont have it.

cardshark202

Im betting this river for sure, folding to a shove. Occasionally he will show up with bottom set, but this is a good board to triple barrell as its very hard for him to have a strong hand here. This could mean he will call light on the river. Checking isn't an option imo, as you have to rely on him to turn his semi-weak hands into a bluff or have the discipline to fold this river almost every time he bets. You would need to be 100% certain of your reads and have a very nitty image yourself to c/f this river.

AmarilloFats

sikes wrote:

not betting the turn would be a disaster cause we pretty much always bet it when we dont have it.

Sure, this should be a consideration . but i very much doubt this ever being exploited.. This good villain; this dry board, these 200bb stacks = it's possible to play for a long time without situation being replicated...
What's much more important imo is to play optimally in this hand

Hectorjelly

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Ok so, lets check then yes? If everything tells us that his range is mostly sets and AK, and hardly ever a complex bluff or a weaker Ace then why are we betting?

His range if he bets the river big (like 175) absolutely kills us. His range if we bet and he just calls is totally different. The only possible reason to check call would be to induce a bluff, and this is just totally the wrong situation. The best option when you have a marginal hand is often to check-call; but not here.

Also on bet folding, for 100bb cash games its absolutely essential. There are tonnes of times when you need to get value for a hand against a certain range. Ie you get to the river and a straight draw comes in. You should bet here with all of your strong hands, in or out of position; checking and then calling a set just because a straight is possible is retarded, and often a losing play. If the guy plays straightforwardly then you have created a negative freeroll for yourself. You check, and then he only bets when he has you beat. However if you bet yourself you give him the opportunity to call with worse hands, which he will be more than happy to do.

sikes

AmarilloFats wrote:

Sure, this should be a consideration . but i very much doubt this ever being exploited.. This good villain; this dry board, these 200bb stacks = it's possible to play for a long time without situation being replicated...
What's much more important imo is to play optimally in this hand

Well if we dont bet scare cards when we have them, betting them when we dont, which is generally very profitable, will become much less profitable. This scenario happens on numerous occasions in short sessions.

But if we think we are beat on the turn, then yeah check/fold but I doubt it

mrflash

The right move here is a small bet on the river, and see what happens, i would fold to a reraise as this guy is solid. its very hard to pin him down to any particular hand. he may have ak, aj, aq but its not worth going broke over, he could be slow playing a set. a small bet looking like a value bet is best here.

robinlacey

i would bet around 200 or so,and think anything else is folly.

i would like to know yours and his agression factor also though.

also,i think everyone in this thread is overestimating how tight 19/12 is,most 19/12 players are nitty because of how they play postflop,but an active 19/12 can be an absolute nightmare and much,much looser postflop than people think.that combined with the fact that he is on the button,and that we only have 100 hands on him,means i don't think its safe to assume he's as nitty as everyone seems to think.its easy to get too caught up in the numbers.

as for bet folding,there are loads of situations where you should bet/fold the river,especially with deepish stacks.

Macspower

Having another think on this hand this evening I ran into a similar typr of hand where I had top 2 with AQ and a similar decent enough TAG called my 1st and second barrels. We were both deep at about 250bb's and I bet/folded to a river push... I still think it's the right move in most situations....

In answer to your title.... no I'm not going broke but I'm betting the river

El Stuntman

Hectorjelly wrote:

His range if he bets the river big (like 175) absolutely kills us. His range if we bet and he just calls is totally different. The only possible reason to check call would be to induce a bluff, and this is just totally the wrong situation. The best option when you have a marginal hand is often to check-call; but not here.

good stuff here again and in retrospect I agree with all of it

I almost timed out on this one and eventually donkey-clicked the call button knowing I was going to see 55, 99 or (hopefully) AK. They were the only hands that made sense for this villain, in this situation

write the book HJ, I will buy it (seriously)

bet folding FTW!!