Downswings: A "how to handle" Thread.

Theresalwaysone

Well lads,
I am currently smack in the centre of a relentless downswing. I knew it was coming as I had been running very hot previous to this so I was prepared, to an extent, for variance to kick me in the teeth. I must admit however I have been very overwhelmed by the ferocity and tenacity of the downswing.

I have learned a lot from this current downswing, more so than any other one and I thought I'd post a thread and outline how I dealt and am dealing with it. Hopefully it might help some of you who find yourselves frequently punching your computer screens or wrongly abusing fish at a live table.

First off: What is a downswing? My own definition of it is: A downswing is when your (genuinely) losing more than your fair share of races, flips and getting sucked out on at a tremendous pace. It happens to all of us.

How do you identify a "downswing": You will know....... trust me.

PMA: As cheesy as this sounds you need a certain level of "positive mental attitude" to come through all downswings. Thinking negatively never got anyone anywhere and TBH it annoys people too. There is nothing worse than the " I run so bad" brigade. I am a very active member in this worldwide club but I am trying to cut down on my whinging as I don't feel it helps. Thinking negatively only serves to worsen the downswing and dilute your passion for the game. Which brings me on to my next point.

Passion: All the top players have an inextinguishable passion for this game. The only difference between their bad variance and ours is that they are playing for a living and so it is much more crucial for them to have this passion. If you don't have a serious level of passion for the game well then you probably don't know what a downswing is and probably don't care. You need passion to overcome the monster that is variance.

Take a break: Now obviously the make up of bad variance means that stopping playing will do nothing at all to help you overcome it but I believe, and I am currently employing this passion fueling technique, that not playing and reading up, reviewing old books, being the scourge of 2+2. If find your passion for the game waning because of a downswing organize some home games for FUN. I for one find reading about poker serves only to heighten my desire to "get back on the camel" and give it another shot and it galvanizes my determination to outswing this downswing. If taking a small break for a few days and reading up does nothing else but increase you overall understanding of the game then you have had a success as such and will be in a better frame of mind to tackle the rest of the beats.

Play tighter: I have a feeling this could be a controversial point. Personally I find playing tighter and avoiding the marginally +EV situations and the grey area's helps me stick through a downswing. I try to avoid races as I find the loss of a race much more destructive to my overall poker psyche while in a downswing than an individual race win which will be forgotten once we lose the next one. Its human nature to remember the bad things and bad things+more bad things= no passion or PMA and a sever bout of tilt, monster under the bed syndrome and spew city central. This point I feel may be argued by the more mathematical minded players and I feel that they may be right in saying passing up a +EV situation whether swinging high or low is wrong. It most certainly is although I think the psychological implications of losing another marginal +EV situation seriously maim a persons game. Obviously playing tighter means bluffing less....... keep that in mind.

Drop levels: Again this may be a controversial point as dropping levels means minimising profits but also losses. I think if you decide to drop levels you need to be sure you are experiencing negative variance as dropping when you aren't sure and you are beating a higher level will just cost you money. By all means drop a level if your bankroll takes a serious hit ( this is basic money management ) but I am talking about dropping BEFORE it takes a hit. The problem here though is identifying the downswing and being sure about it. Personally after a prolonged session of running hot I am always aware that I am due my " bad luck ". So if I sense things are turning I mite drop levels for a short time ( maybe a day or 2 ) just to be sure. So begins the cat and mouse chase of " is it a downswing or not". This attitude towards it, I think, at least makes you aware and cautious towards a possible downswing. It will happen to you, sooner or later.

Thats all I can write at the moment. Will add more later as I get my thoughts together.

Also interested to see how other players deal with downswings? Do you think identifying it is the first step and how can you be sure you are on a downswing? Would you advocate dropping levels for the duration of a downswing to minimise losses ( i know the flip side is minimise profits) ?

Edit to Add:http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=7194553&fpart=&PHPSESSID=

NickyOD

At some point in every player's life he/she will run worse than they ever thought possible and then some.

Once you accept this unavoidable truth then dealing with it becomes much easier. I don't believe in taking breaks if I'm playing well but running bad. The important thing is that you recognise when you are running bad because you're making mistakes. Then it's definitely time for a break.

The best thing to do is just try to plough through it, don't try to force things and believe that things will turn around soon, because if you know you are a winning player, then they definitely will.

By the way it's also very important that while you may be a winning player you may be losing because you are playing on table that are too difficult to beat in the short term.

RoundTower

Taking a break is good. Even if you think you are playing really well but running really badly, it's probably a bit of both and it's hard to make an objective decision.

kincsem

A downswing will only be a worry if it affects your finances. I play poker as a hobby, and am currently in a downswing. It might be a downswing, but I accept I am playing poorly and getting the results my play deserves, so I wouldn't call it a downswing. Calling bad results a downswing is blaming bad luck instead of recognising bad play. I have been cushioned by good results from betting on horseracing, golf, and soccer that leave me an overall profit.

It is decisions that decide results. Getting bad cards is part of poker. Also getting good cards and running into people with better cards is part of the game. When I remember from the hands I played that cost me chips is my misreading of my opponents betting. A good player maximises the chips in and minimises the chips out.

I no longer keep records, but when I did I noticed that I cashed 4th, 1st, 4th on successive nights. At other times I went weeks without cashing (I was playing about twenty nights a month). I think winning comes from putting in effort all the way through a tournament, and in each of the four betting rounds of each Hold 'Em hand.

opr

I am not too sure how many other people have this problem. When i run bad i reach a certain point when how much i lose no longer matters and the last thing i am thinking about is my bankroll or how i am playing at that time as i have passed the point of no return in terms of caring about losing.

Mike Caro's theory of the threshold of misery benifited me alot after i seen the concept written in black and white it helped my brain to start rationalising my thoughts when losing or in a downswing.

Once i was able to see this point happening and understand what was going on it helped me to stop it.

Mike Caro's wrote:

Players react differently when they're behind. It's practically a universal trait - this single tendency is responsible for more bankroll failure among capable players than any other fault. We've all done it - gotten punished, sucked out on by horrible hands and lost a nice chunk of money. Beyond a comfortable loss. From that point on, adding to the loss doesn't seem like the same thing, dollar for dollar. In fact, since the sorrow of losing is already heavily felt, additional losing doesn't register at all.

Bit more detail on it.

"When you're playing poker, in the long run, every dollar you win (or every dollar you save) is the same. It doesn't matter whether the dollar came at the end of an otherwise losing session, or at the beginning of a winning session. So, it always matters that you play your best. However, when you're having a terrible session, whether due to bad luck or bad playing, the misery you feel from your loss can become so great that you've reached your threshold. That is, even if you lose thousands more from this point forward, your misery will not increase. People who have reached their threshold and continue to play are HIGHLY likely to lose every dollar they have on them or can obtain. They will often play like total maniacs or some other very bad player-type, in their attempt to win back enough money to reduce their misery.

His point was simply to be aware of this phenomenon so that you can avoid living it out. If you reach your threshold, and don't recognize it, it will likely have a severe negative impact on your bankroll."

Opr

Theresalwaysone

I think it is a problem for most players. I think you would have to be extremely tough mentally to not get affected by 1. Bad luck, negative Variance, downswings whatever you call it and 2. Losing a substantial amount of money.

RedJoker

NickyOD wrote:

At some point in every player's life he/she will run worse than they ever thought possible and then some.

I never thought I could run as bad as I am at the moment, dropped 17 buy-ins at 100nl, moved down and immediately dropped another 5 at 50nl. This was after crushing the games and turning 1K into 3.5K in about 10K hands. Obviously I knew my winrates were unsustainable at the time but I didn't think it would turn around this sharply. Back at 1.5K and trying to rebuild.

Theresalwaysone,

I'd add play less tables at a time to your list. Playing less tables gives you more time to think about decisions and helps to get better reads on your opponents and follow the flow of the game. This is provided you're patient and don't get bored easily.

robinlacey

few things i've learnt from downswings:

-no matter how good you are at poker,you're not quite as good as you think you are.any that's when you're playing well.when you're playing badly,you're ****e.

-taking breaks is all well and good,but if you're playing for a living there's only so many weeks off you can take.instead of taking breaks,i would suggest just stopping playing if a session doesn't start of well.i've thought a lot about sessions where you start off on the back foot,and its very hard to overcome it.if you've been running/playing badly and a session doesn't start off well,just stop playing,go and have a cup of tea and watch the simpsons,then start up again in half an hour. i've known this for a while,and if i'd followed it all the times i should have i'd be a happy man.

-dropping down for a while is a great idea.first of all,it should restore your confidence.secondly,if you're not running/playing well,at least your losing less.
also,if you aren't sure how good you are,you should make sure that you can absolutely destroy the games below whatever game you're hoping to play.its easy to think of all the bad players you've seen at each level and think there isn't a big difference between the levels,but there really is. i've been grinding lower stakes than i'm used to recently and i'm amazed at how much easier the games are.if you drop down and this isn't the case,stay down,because you're not going to be able to beat the higher levels.

-i am convinced that there have been times when i've been playing games where i am technically much better at poker than anyone else at the table,but i still haven't had an edge.the edge you have over bad players isn't as big as you think.(im talking about generic bad players,ones who make fundamental mistakes on most hands,but not the total maniacs)
if your judgement is slightly off,if you're a little bit tilty,or if they get the upper hand early on then i honestly think you could be wasting your time,even if you are better than all of them.

-one thing i will occassionally do if i'm not certain that i've been playing well,if i'm trying to stabilise after a bad run,or even if i'm trying to get back into playing after a break,is buyin for 50bbs instead of 100 at the start of a session.this goes completely against how i normally feel about buyins,however when i'm running badly i don't mind sacrificing some ev to get things back on track.basically the reason i do this is so that at the start of the session,the decisions i will be faced with will be much easier,and then by the time i have a full stack i will have been playing solid,focused poker and i will be in a better frame of mind.starting sessions like this make it harder to get into bad habits from the getgo.if i'm happy that i've played well for an hour or so i will usually just top up to the full buyin on any tables i haven't doubled up on,but i think i can be no harm to start off in a less stressful situation than usual if your judgement might be off.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

Brian Townsends Blog shows how he handles a 3 million downswing, i know he is on a different planet but it is a good read and he touches on how he deals with his downswings.

nicnicnic

Kairo Immense Vet wrote:

Brian Townsends Blog shows how he handles a 3 million downswing, i know he is on a different planet but it is a good read and he touches on how he deals with his downswings.

yeh he drops down to 25/50 50/100 poor brian

jbravado

Im experiencing what I realise has been my first extended downswing-it really feels like its never ending or going to end totally demoralising and I havent been able to deal with it at all.Hopefully this thread will help.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

nicnicnic wrote:

yeh he drops down to 25/50 50/100 poor brian

LOL

nicnicnic

some good stuff on var here


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8449205&an=0&page=0#Post8449205


this relates to stts but some good stuff towards the end of first post

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/2302700/site_id/1#import

opr

A few other ones.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/204604/site_id/1#import

And below one of my favourite poker posts : Gigabet's Success and Failure thread.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1825403&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=

Opr

nicnicnic

opr wrote:

And below one of my favourite poker posts : Gigabet's Success and Failure thread.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1825403&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=

Opr

lol spent 90 minutes looking for that one came up with the other two

DEmeant0r

I also am experiencing my first real extended downfall, I've been on this downfall for a few weeks, dropped 10-12BI in 100NL, I've had a mini break from poker for the last week apart from the 150 Red Cow game. Usually when I play poker (online or live) nearly everyday it starts to take it's toll on my mental health and that really affects my ability to think/make good decisions.

I think the first thing you should do if you think you are experiencing a downfall is to drop down a level, or play on same level but with less tables. Bankroll management is incredibly important when you're experiencing a downswing, this is the thing in poker which I'm seriously lacking, and I'm working on it. When you're experiencing a downswing it's also terribly important not to "chase losses", whether that is reloading while tilting or *moving up a level*(I've done that before, resulting in me tilting off a chunk of my BR).

I would love if this thread got the sticky.

BigCityBanker

running hotter than god = "Im playing very well"

"Variance is a bitch" = Your playing like sh1te son, how about some reality!

Ive been constructing a blog post on this over the past few days - im searching for an article i read on the topic lately to complete it before i add it to my blog.

BobSloane

I'm on a long breakeven/slight downswing stretch at the moment but I feel the big downswing is on the way because I'm not happy with the way i've played a lot of hands - winners and losers.
In any say 200 hand session I'll only have a 10 or 15 hands that have a 20+bb net difference to my stack. I try to review them and be honest. Most hands posted here are losing hands but we all have hands where you 3 barrelled your stack with no hand no draw when you shouldn't have but got away with it somehow - or called a psb bet on the river from a rock on a board where you could only beat a bluff but you were holding AA and miraculously it was one of the tiny % of times he was bluffing.

Anyway I would suggest that you review hand histories and look at them closely. What happened in the 10-15 hands after you got beat set over set or by a 3 outer? Sometimes I'll find a clump of hands where I lose 4-10bbs or a horror show bluff where my thinking must be " sure he saw me beat set over set he must think i'm getting the money in with something good." I had one of the most retarded hands recently oop with 33 on an A Q x board where somehow all the money went in on the flop. It was unexplainable - but it was soon after having a set busted by a double gutshot.

If you're happy with your play in the hand histories the bad run will wear itself out. If you are playing bad and running bad though....leave the poker alone for a while

cooker3

I have never had a bad downswing to speak off.
How depressing that this is all ahead of me!

ianmc38

I had my worst downsing ever last month -12 buyins at 2/4. The first 4 were variance. The next 8 I blamed on variance. Then I did a review of every hand Id played that month up to that point and found the worst spewy hands ive played since I started playing poker. Literally giving away money.

Then I wrote up two big A4 pages with instructions for myself such as no triple barreling, fold to 4 bets, no tilting etc and kept them on top of my keyboard until they had been drilled into my head. I've been on a +30 or so upswing since then and have felt much better about ym game.

Its very easy to blame a bad run on variance, but its important to be honest and review all your hands to make sure it actually is variance and not poor play thats causing the dowswing.

Mr.Plough

live poker downswings last forever

sumoward

Guys,

The majority of posters in this thread play at a far different level than I but I wanted to revisit one area the OP brings up as i think addressing it might be of use to some.

Positive Mental Attitude.

Now the following is not some Psychobabble, it’s not lay on the coach and tell me that your Mammy didn’t love you stuff.

There is a form of Psychiatric therapy that I believe can be applied to the both dealing with the impact of Downturns and Tilt. It is known as Cognitive Behavioral Therapy(CBT) and is used successfully in the treatment of depression.

I will use the Royal College of Psychiatrists description here rather than merely paraphrase it.

CBT a way of talking about:
 How you think about yourself, the world and other people
 How what you do affects your thoughts and feelings.

CBT can help you to change how you think ("Cognitive") and what you do ("Behaviour)". These changes can help you to feel better. Unlike some of the other talking treatments, it focuses on the "here and now" problems and difficulties. Instead of focussing on the causes of your distress or symptoms in the past, it looks for ways to improve your state of mind now.

It has been found to be helpful in:

 Anxiety
 Depression
 Panic
 Agoraphobia and other phobias
 Social phobia
 Bulimia
 Obsessive compulsive disorder
 Post traumatic stress disorder
 Schizophrenia

How does it work?

CBT can help you to make sense of overwhelming problems by breaking them down into smaller parts. This makes it easier to see how they are connected and how they affect you. These parts are:

 A Situation - a problem, event or difficult situation
From this can follow:
 Thoughts
 Emotions
 Physical feelings
 Actions

I believe the processes uses in CBT can be used to shore up your confidence during a downswing and also as a discipline to shorten the duration of Tilt.
An example

There are helpful and unhelpful ways of reacting to most situations; depending on how you think about them (Caveat: This is simplified to underline the point rather than me talking down to people.)

ituation: You've had a bad day/week, have lost more than your fair share of Buy-Ins
Unhelpful Thoughts: I am unlucky/unskilled. My hardwork up to now has been wasted
Feelings: Low, sad angry
Physical: Low energy, feel sick, distracted
Action: Go home and avoid play or go home and play in an undisciplined manner.

Situation: You've had a bad day/week, have lost more than your fair share of Buy-Ins
Helpful Thoughts: The game has swings, I am conscious of those swings
Feelings: Concerned for and conscious of the self
Physical: none
Action: Go out, watch a film. Read a book. Meet friends




The same situation has led to two very different results, depending on how you thought about the situation. How you think has affected how you felt and what you did.

This is a simplified way of looking at what happens. The whole sequence, and parts of it, can also feedback like this:



This "vicious circle" can make you feel worse. It can even create new situations that make you feel worse. You can start to believe quite unrealistic (and unpleasant) things about yourself. This happens because, when we are distressed, we are more likely to jump to conclusions and to interpret things in extreme and unhelpful ways.

CBT can help you to break this circle of altered thinking, feelings and behaviour. When you see the parts of the sequence clearly, you can change them - and so change the way you feel. CBT aims to get you to a point where you can "do it yourself", and work out your own ways of tackling these problems.
There are a number of different web resources for CBT. Just do a search on Google and have a read over what you find.
Useful CBT web links
British Association for Behavioural and Cognitive Psychotherapies www.babcp.com

Calipso website: www.calipso.co.uk

Beating the Blues: www.ultrasis.com/products/product.jsp?product_id=1

For further information on Cognitive Behavioural therapy (www.psychnet-uk.com/psychotherapy/psychotherapy_cognitive_behavioural_therapy.htm)

opr

This guys did this video to post on 2+2 to check if he was playing ok as he was in the middle of a big downswing.

Check out the video from 45 minutes on.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=8PAROQYQ

Opr