KK on a Q high board, 200bb deep. $10/$20

BigCityBanker

ive lifted this from 2+2 as i think its a hell of an interesting spot.

FWIW I asked Rob who would fold, Flipper admits to being a station and calls and calls River shove also, I also fold. As I pointed out to Flipper at the time of posting this it had 330 views on 2+2 and only 3 responses - I think thats a decent indication of how tough a spot it is.

SomeRandomGuyon2+2 wrote:

Villain is 31/18(2 over 90 hands and we didn`t tangle till now

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $4158.50
UTG+1: $1967
CO: $1960
hero: $4168
SB: $4708
BB: $2067

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is Button with Kd Ks
UTG raises to $60, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, hero raises to $280, 2 folds, UTG calls, CO folds.

Flop: 4s 9s Qh ($650, 2 players)
UTG bets $200, hero calls.

Turn: 3d ($1050, 2 players)
UTG insta bets $1060.

There`s obviousl the option to raise flop, but i doubt i will get from any hand i beat( perhaps AQ).

I think folding is too weak, but what am i doing on a non A river and he shoves?

What are peoples thoughts on this?

Shortstack

The flop bet looks like a weak lead but he has a reasonably high VPIP so can we only put him on set here? If so we should fold to the bet on the flop. I think it needs a maths type to work out the EV vs his range.

Obv all sets in his range as well as JTs, AQs, AA. His range probably needs to be a lot wider to consider going further with the hand and for this we need a read or to interpret his stats to a range. 90 hands is not huge to work with.

How many other hands can we put in his range cos if we use the ones quoted above we should definately just be folding the flop.

Could we include TT, JJ, AK, KQs to his range? Does this make a difference to his decision if we do? Could we go wider to include any pair?

More questions but I am interested in this one as I have gone broke in this spot a lot before either raising the flop or getting it in on a blank turn like this.

Hectorjelly

How do we get 200 bbs deep each without a read? I doubt im folding here to a that guy with no other information.

I would think there are no replies because without a read, or being a regular in that game its impossible to give good advice. In some games that turn lead is nearly always AA or a set (probably QQQ) and is never a single pair, in others it will never be a set.

nicnicnic

call and call a non A non S river push. btw wtf is it with every one looking to fold high over pairs round here lately

THEIRISHMOB

Does he bet like this with a set? (don't think so)

push on the river if no Ace.

Hectorjelly

nicnicnic wrote:

call and call a non A non S river push. btw wtf is it with every one looking to fold high over pairs round here lately

because we're not playing tournaments?

Hectorjelly

THEIRISHMOB wrote:

Does he bet like this with a set? (don't think so)

lol

opr

One of the reasons that thread got so few replies is alot of the better posters on 2+2 ignore the OP (recallme). He posts huge volumes of threads which alot of repected posters have not liked as alot of his threads were border line retarded for a MSNL or HSNL player.

Their was a huge thread in MSNL asking to have him banned only a few weeks ago.

Opr

nicnicnic

Hectorjelly wrote:

because we're not playing tournaments?

maybe you should get out a play more of them, there's generally many bad players in them which could prove very profitable to such a venerated and masterful exponent of the game as yourself

cardshark202

nicnicnic wrote:

maybe you should get out a play more of them, there's generally many bad players in them which could prove very profitable to such a venerated and masterful exponent of the game as yourself

Not when you're playing them Nicky. No-one else has a chance.

ocallagh

we don't have much info to work with. hero's stats are important here.

phantom_lord

opr wrote:

One of the reasons that thread got so few replies is alot of the better posters on 2+2 ignore the OP (recallme). He posts huge volumes of threads which alot of repected posters have not liked as alot of his threads were border line retarded for a MSNL or HSNL player.

Their was a huge thread in MSNL asking to have him banned only a few weeks ago.

Opr

yeah and to top it off someone went and bumped all his pointless threads a week or two ago in msnl.

THEIRISHMOB wrote:

Does he bet like this with a set? (don't think so)

there's alot of $$$ to go in.



without a read i'd prob call or shove the turn. i don't really think it's an interesting spot, there's just no info.

looserock

Like someone said every game plays different, the low stakes game I'm playing in at the moment a lot of players would either have AA here or tptk with nut flush draw, cant rule out a set either of course.

I'd fold.

nicnicnic

cardshark202 wrote:

Not when you're playing them Nicky. No-one else has a chance.

shh Reggie you'll ruin my masterplan to add value to tournaments everywhere by filling them with cash donks

Hectorjelly

nicnicnic wrote:

maybe you should get out a play more of them, there's generally many bad players in them which could prove very profitable to such a venerated and masterful exponent of the game as yourself

I took a 2 hour round trip on saturday in order to play five hands of tournament poker. I dont think ill be doing that for a while!

nicnicnic

Hectorjelly wrote:

I took a 2 hour round trip on saturday in order to play five hands of tournament poker. I dont think ill be doing that for a while!

I do this most weeks except the trip is usually double your two hours, stick with it man it will make you stronger

bops

nicnicnic wrote:

...btw wtf is it with every one looking to fold high over pairs round here lately

because that's what a clever thinking poker player would do

...but in reality, all of them, without exception, would snap call

gosplan

This could be just me but is a fold here not a bit insane?

I mean what else do you want to happen with kings?

Obviously there's nuances that are beyond me but you flat called a flop bet and a brick fell on the turn - so he bets his AQ, no?

I'm assuming that QQ would 3-bet preflop to find out how good it is.
AA might not, but given the agression it wouldn't be too bad an idea.

So 44 or 99 or maybe AA beats us. What do you want, stone cold nuts?

opr

gosplan wrote:

I'm assuming that QQ would 3-bet preflop to find out how good it is.

You assume wrong.

Opr

Ace2007

gosplan wrote:

What do you want, stone cold nuts?

yes

gosplan

opr wrote:

You assume wrong.

Opr

Would that not be the correct move though?

I mean if UTG does have QQ then he got extremly lucky. If there was a low flop, then he would have had to fire two barrels or put in a large check raise to get the same information 3-betting would have determined.

or am I talking out my ar*e?

RoundTower

gosplan wrote:

This could be just me but is a fold here not a bit insane?

I mean what else do you want to happen with kings?

Obviously there's nuances that are beyond me but you flat called a flop bet and a brick fell on the turn - so he bets his AQ, no?

I'm assuming that QQ would 3-bet preflop to find out how good it is.
AA might not, but given the agression it wouldn't be too bad an idea.

So 44 or 99 or maybe AA beats us. What do you want, stone cold nuts?

this is pretty much what I would think too. Bet sizing by villain is pretty strange on flop and turn. I think raising flop is good since he bet so small, I think a draw is quite likely but if we are 3 bet we are almost definitely behind. But if you are in this spot you should have some better read on villain.

opr

RoundTower wrote:

this is pretty much what I would think too. Bet sizing by villain is pretty strange on flop and turn. I think raising flop is good since he bet so small, I think a draw is quite likely but if we are 3 bet we are almost definitely behind. But if you are in this spot you should have some better read on villain.

I don't agree that rasing the flop here is good. The fact his bet sizing is weird makes me more inclined not to raise the flop as it looks like a bet to induce a raise on the flop.
If you raise and get 3 bet are you going to fold ?

Opr

Goodluck2me

It is very strange all right that everyone wants to fold, it seems that noone is comfortable putting in 100BB+ into a pot with out Top two or better nowadays, is this not exploitable surely?
there has to be a certain amount of bluff% here too, although we need more info, i think against most random donks it may be a call.

also how does this play differently if we have AA?

opr

gosplan wrote:

Would that not be the correct move though?

I mean if UTG does have QQ then he got extremly lucky. If there was a low flop, then he would have had to fire two barrels or put in a large check raise to get the same information 3-betting would have determined.

or am I talking out my ar*e?

Well this has already been 3bet prelfop by us with KK. So if your saying QQ would have 4 bet to find out how strong we are thats a terrible way to think.

If he has QQ and 4 bets here he is going to be up against a range that crushes him completely i.e AA or KK so in effect the bet folds out all hands we beat and means we only play against hands that have us crushed.

Opr

RoundTower

opr wrote:

I don't agree that rasing the flop here is good. The fact his bet sizing is weird makes me more inclined not to raise the flop as it looks like a bet to induce a raise on the flop.
If you raise and get 3 bet are you going to fold ?

Opr

yes, it is never AQ (unless with the nfd maybe) and it is an awkward amount of money for him to put in with any draw.

opr

RoundTower wrote:

yes, it is never AQ (unless with the nfd maybe) and it is an awkward amount of money for him to put in with any draw.

Meh , He could just shove that makes it less awkward. By rasing he will fold stuff i don't want him too i will also have to fold to a 3 bet when i feel alot of the time we may be ahead of a draw. I think calling down in this hand to a non spade turn and river has a higher EV.

Anyway as everyone said i suppose its a bit redundant to talk about without reads.

Opr

BigCityBanker

Hero wrote:

I called river was a K and he checked- i shoved he call with KTo

there ya have it - i hope he buddy listed villian

phantom_lord

poker's pretty simple innit.