Hand from Drogheda Game

smurph

Drogheda game, and there is 4 players in the hand.

Pot is circa 2K.

flop comes down JJ8, checked all around. turn is J, checked all around, river is 8 Sb, checks BB bets 2.5K folded to you on the button,

your holding cards are lower pocket pair to board, so you are basically playing the board, do you call?

Lafortezza

Description of opponent(s)? Stacks?

BigCityBanker

im guessing your in for 500 here pre.

you need to risk 2500 to win 1000.

fold without much thought.

smurph

lafortezza wrote:

Description of opponent(s)? Stacks?

He would be a solid enough player, well capable of a move or 2 (he as circa 13K here)

Primewise

Probably fold, you’re getting only 1k profit if you are right, and -2.5k if you are wrong.

If it’s a split 3 times out of 4, then a call is profitable.


He could have 99 and 1010 for the win aswell, so consider his action in preflop betting…

smurph

Primewise wrote:

Probably fold, you’re getting only 1k profit if you are right, and -2.5k if you are wrong.

If it’s a split 3 times out of 4, then a call is profitable.


He could have 99 and 1010 for the win aswell, so consider his action in preflop betting…

He is in the BB with 2 limpers into the pot pre-flop, I reckon he would raise with 99 or above.......

BigCityBanker

Primewise wrote:

Probably fold, you’re getting only 1k profit if you are right, and -2.5k if you are wrong.

the effective change to our stack from the begining of the hand is +500.

I actually dont think this is even close to a call? Im very open to others rational for calling in this spot though.

sikes

BigCityBanker wrote:

the effective change to our stack from the begining of the hand is +500.

Our action preflop doesnt affect our decision here.

X% is the time that we need to split.

x(1000)+(1-x)(-2500)=0
1000x-2500+2500x=0
3500x=2500
x=5/7

So you need to be right 71% of the time to call for the spilt. If there was no SB i would call. With one player left to act it becomes a lot tricker, because you never CC with a J

Primewise

BigCityBanker wrote:

the effective change to our stack from the begining of the hand is +500.

its irrelevant what the change is from the beginning of the hand. you're being offered a proposition, and if you call it then the outcome is either -2.5k or +1k.


How about raising his bet??! could be much more profitable if you think he's full of sh1t. Obviously this only works if he has lots of $$ left behind him. (and no jack )

smurph

Thanks for the Replies, it was his bet that made me call.

If I had a J I would be looking for a call obviously so I would probably bet out 1.5K or even 1K, the fact that he bet 2.5k made me think he definitely didn't have a Jack,

So I called, he had a Jack,

good point about the pot BCB, I was thrown by the amount he bet into the pot, and at the end of the day im risking too much for at best a split pot.

meh, it's a constant education...

Primewise

smurph wrote:

Thanks for the Replies, it was his bet that made me call.

If I had a J I would be looking for a call obviously so I would probably bet out 1.5K or even 1K, the fact that he bet 2.5k made me think he definitely didn't have a Jack,

So I called, he had a Jack,

good point about the pot BCB, I was thrown by the amount he bet into the pot, and at the end of the day im risking too much for at best a split pot.

meh, it's a constant education...

The villain was obviously representing the bluff with an overbet, which is a great play if you wanna get paid

BigCityBanker

I have a rule in general about not calling to split a pot in a situation like this. Its long term -EV imo.

Bad players make this mistake constantly (smurph - im am not for a moment suggesting anything here about you - im making a general comment). Remember The Chiefs exit from the William Hill Gods of poker when he snap called with a straight on the board. Thats the sort of bad player making bad calls im talking about.

smurph

BigCityBanker wrote:

I have a rule in general about not calling to split a pot in a situation like this. Its long term -EV imo.

Bad players make this mistake constantly (smurph - im am not for a moment suggesting anything here about you - im making a general comment). Remember The Chiefs exit from the William Hill Gods of poker when he snap called with a straight on the board. Thats the sort of bad player making bad calls im talking about.

It was a bad call on my behalf, I thought he was at it, so to speak, but so what if he was. It was too much for me to risk for too little reward. Long term it is -EV, and this is not results based thinking here. I didn't think through the hand properly before calling......

smurph

Primewise wrote:

The villain was obviously representing the bluff with an overbet, which is a great play if you wanna get paid

Yeah it was a good bet from him, I should have thought it through more. Ah well.

sikes

Dont be so results orientated! He can have far more than just a J if he is a player capable of making moves.

BigCityBanker

thinking about it, id rather bet 2,500 hundred here and fold to a raise than call 2,500. I think it would have a higher EV?

NickyOD

smurph wrote:

He would be a solid enough player...

Did you miss the last hand before the break? He couldn't release 99 against the most conservative player at the table on a A-x-T-T-x boards after there was betting on every street. The other guy had Aces.