Horrible QQ Hand

ianmc38

Asked a few people about this hand. Still unsure about the river.

Guy is 24/18 from mined stats. Never played him before. He's not at the table long and this is his first 3 bet.

Green Joker Poker 2.00/4.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button Hero ($1046.80)
SB ($410.00)
BB BB ($407.80)
UTG ($420.00)
UTG+1 ($427.80)

Preflop: Hero is on the Button with Q Q
2 folds, Hero raises to 14.00, 1 fold, BB raises to 40.00, Hero calls 30.00.

Flop (90.00) 7 2 5
BB bets 70.00, Hero calls 70.00.

Turn (230.00) 9
BB checks, Hero checks.

River (230.00) 3
BB moves all-in for 293.80,

DEmeant0r

I go broke here a lot in lower levels, did you call?

rag2gar

Ahhhh, I hate tricky overpair decisions! I always get them wrong. A fold for me, could well be AA

valor

i call

dannydiamond

put him in on the turn and cringe when he calls with trip 9's:rolleyes:

Samba

I fcuking hate queens.

Fold for me.

opr

Defo this is a great spot to use that disconnect thingy.

Its a fold for me. Often the turn is stack a donk line.

Opr

Macspower

now it looks like a fold.... but in the heat of battle I often find the call button and call myself a donkey for the next 10 mins.....

Captain Tom

button v bb/your hand is somewhat underrepped/he might be valueshoving JJ/random bluffs. i call.

fuzzbox

I fold

cardshark202

Looks like a fold to me though his AF is important here.

ocallagh

Prob a fold, but the lack of action on the turn might have induced a desperate all-in after a 3-bet and cbet went wrong for him. I don't know what the chances of him bluffing are tho. You do have TT/JJ stuck on your forehead. I might call because of his stats, your position, the lack of action on the turn and the fact you have slightly under represented your hand. As Reggie says, his AF and CBet %'s are important stats here.

cooker3

I think I can find a call as you have played it so weak and the raise pf, bet flop, check turn. bet river seems so often to me to be a bluff. As already said, his af would be good to know.

ianmc38

I folded the river. Betting the turn would be the perfect way to get stack a donked. Still not sure about the fold, but I think KK/AA shows up there alot.

Bukman13

i'd raise 110$ on the turn after the bb checked

this then forces him to make the decision:

If he has nothing he will fold as he knows your already commited to the pot.

if he then raises all in it would only be 180$ to win 630$ around 4.5/1,

i think the most likely outcome is that he has TT, JJ, KK, or AA (i'll dismiss the possibility that he has QQ as its very unlikely)...but he could also have AK, AQ, AJ since your raise was on the button he's more likely to dismiss your hand as genuine.

lets say that he's 3 times more likely to have a pair rather than an A?..

that leaves:6 different outcomes for each TT, JJ, KK, AA thats (24 total)

and 16 outcomes for each of AK, AQ, AJ thats (48 total, divided by 3 leaves 16 total)

So he has a total of 40 different hand of which only 12 can beat you (KK, AA)

70% of the time your hands a big favorite and 30% its not....dont forget even if he has KK AA you can still hit a Q on the river (about 5% of the time)...

Anyway i would call this nearly every time...

Washout

Bukman13 wrote:

i'd raise 110$ on the turn after the bb checked

this then forces him to make the decision:

If he has nothing he will fold as he knows your already commited to the pot.

if he then raises all in it would only be 180$ to win 630$ around 4.5/1,

i think the most likely outcome is that he has TT, JJ, KK, or AA (i'll dismiss the possibility that he has QQ as its very unlikely)...but he could also have AK, AQ, AJ since your raise was on the button he's more likely to dismiss your hand as genuine.

lets say that he's 3 times more likely to have a pair rather than an A?..

that leaves:6 different outcomes for each TT, JJ, KK, AA thats (24 total)

and 16 outcomes for each of AK, AQ, AJ thats (48 total, divided by 3 leaves 16 total)

So he has a total of 40 different hand of which only 12 can beat you (KK, AA)

70% of the time your hands a big favorite and 30% its not....dont forget even if he has KK AA you can still hit a Q on the river (about 5% of the time)...

Anyway i would call this nearly every time...

betting the turn would be an awful awful play...a check on the turn from a standard TAG is there to induce a bet knowing that the ian is pot commiting himself if he bets the turn.

KK/AA here too many times for my liking I'd fold

ianmc38

Bukman13 wrote:

i'd raise 110$ on the turn after the bb checked

this then forces him to make the decision:

If he has nothing he will fold as he knows your already commited to the pot.

if he then raises all in it would only be 180$ to win 630$ around 4.5/1,

i think the most likely outcome is that he has TT, JJ, KK, or AA (i'll dismiss the possibility that he has QQ as its very unlikely)...but he could also have AK, AQ, AJ since your raise was on the button he's more likely to dismiss your hand as genuine.

lets say that he's 3 times more likely to have a pair rather than an A?..

that leaves:6 different outcomes for each TT, JJ, KK, AA thats (24 total)

and 16 outcomes for each of AK, AQ, AJ thats (48 total, divided by 3 leaves 16 total)

So he has a total of 40 different hand of which only 12 can beat you (KK, AA)

70% of the time your hands a big favorite and 30% its not....dont forget even if he has KK AA you can still hit a Q on the river (about 5% of the time)...

Anyway i would call this nearly every time...

Obvious gimmick account. I hope you're joking

phantom_lord

I'd fold.

ianmc38 wrote:

Obvious gimmick account. I hope you're joking

.