Call or fold

Hectorjelly

12nl on small site. Villain has $320 and I have $175. Its a very loose table and most of the players are loose and bad. However the villain is a good player and has been doing well on multiple tables. His stats are 24/14 over 1k hands. Total Af of 1.6. We dont have much history as Ive been avoiding him. (Other players are terrible lol)

Utg limps, I make it $8 with KK. I get 4 callers, including the villain on button.

The flop is 952 with 2 diamonds. I bet $26. Folded to villain who makes it $119 to go. (this is exactly a pot raise, theres a pot button so dont read a whole lot into the amount). I have $167 left to go in before I do anything

a) whats his range
b) call (well all in actually) or fold

Mr.Plough

nvm doesnt matter

eoghan104

I call here very fast. His range is 55+ and AJs+ it looks like hes trying to snap off your continuation bet. Stacks are too shallow to ever fold here. I have a feeling your the villain here though as you only have 175.

kebabfest

A) AdJd \AdQd 99 55 22 A9 (if he is cruddy) 95 .
This is what i reckon on the way it is played out.
Fold , but I rarely find a fold here.

sikes

Range is all nut flush draws, sets and perhaps TT, JJ. QQ+ raises pre.

Fold, well I guess TT,JJ and weaker FDs will play like this too enough so I prob lash it in.

BigCityBanker

eoghan104 wrote:

I have a feeling your the villain here though as you only have 175.

lol - i thought exactly the same. then i thought he might be multitabling and not had a chance to top up! Anyway im allinski. I do not possess the ability to fold KK on this board when im playing less than 90bbs. Is it ever correct to fold KK on this flop when were sub 100 BB's?

AmarilloFats

99 55 22 - Fold.
he could have 6d7d....

If it was any of the other players.. get it all in.

sikes

Sorry just waking up but those calcs cant be right Mr P. You should have far less than 60% against nut fds and sets. You should have something like 40-45. But he will sometimes have TT/JJ/weaker FD so I think throwing it in is ok.

Try putting in a range of

AdQd,AdJd,..... all the way down

Mr.Plough

yeah i thought that aswell but when i type in Adxd or each hand one by one like ad2d ad3d etc it just wipes them.

NickyOD

Has to be a fold. He has a set or a big draw and given the preflop action more likely to be a set. You're either drawing to 2 outs or racing. Given your table image and your description of him I don't think it could ever be TT-QQ here.

Mr.Plough

yeah sikes you were right, entered them in wrong. was putting spaces between each hand so they got wiped

Hand 0: 68.796% 68.80% 00.00% 73557 0.00 { 99, 55, 22, AdJd, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, 8d7d, 4d3d }
Hand 1: 31.204% 31.20% 00.00% 33363 0.00 { KK }

Hectorjelly

Correctly guessed eoghan, I was the villain. Just a few points, when the guy bet out for $26 i was almost certain he had an good overpair. I personally would never turn up with any one pair hand here, im not flat calling preflop with AA (obv) or KK, and if i call with QQ JJ TT etc its not to go mental on a ragged board. Against the range of hands I could have, which is all good draws (at worst NFD) and sets its a pretty bad call.

I found this spot annoying, (I had 9d Td) as I knew he wasnt going to fold. Pushing is still best though I think just on the off chance he decides to fold TT or something like that.

The rest of your post is LOL though eoghan, only an idiot would cb into 5 loose idiots with nothing, and no-one in their right mind is going to try and take someone off their obvious overpair on the off chance they have gone temporarily mad.

Strangely the river diamond didnt stop this hand from annoying me.

sikes

You have 50% with 9T against his range.

Hectorjelly

sikes wrote:

You should raise more preflop, bet more on the flop.

If there is 102 in the middle and you have 141 left. You only need 36% to win the hand. Once you add into the chance that he will sometimes wake up with TT/JJ or a weaker draw lashing it in is fine. I would guess you will have at least 40% in this situation.

I think its 37%, but its closer than I thought. Also I personally will never turn up with TT or JJ. Not sure about a weaker draw; maybe a gutshot and flush draw.

With full stacks its probably a more clear fold.

Hectorjelly

sikes wrote:

You have 50% with 9T against his range.

I know! Theres money in the pot though, and a slim chance he misclicks!

Hectorjelly

Just realised that maybe you meant I shouldnt care if he calls or not. Well all the money that goes in postflop gets chopped up equity wise, but if I get him to fold KK I get the full equity of the dead money .

Hawk Eye

Hectorjelly wrote:

However the villain is a good player and has been doing well on multiple tables. His stats are 24/14 over 1k hands. Total Af of 1.6.

Hectorjelly wrote:

I was the villain

I lawled.

But yeah Mr Plough's range looks right for hero also include pair+fd. I would never expect a 1/2 hero to fold QQ+ though even if heros hand is basically face up when you lead into that amount of players and then you get repoped big.

Hawk Eye

Oh and using the pot button like that makes it look more like a big draw (to the observant opponent) that your committing to rather than a set which probably lessens your fold equity, just something to think about.

eoghan104

Yeh i can understand what your saying about not continuation betting but its just never a fold for me with the KK and less than 80bbs. If we were both really deep I might feel different. I dont think its a bad call by him really.

Mr.Plough

quick question.

Your the villain with KK in this hand. You can assign a range fairly quickly to HJ, but is there a quick way to calculate a rough estimate of your equity without the aid of pokerstove, pen & paper etc. Or is it just a case of with time and experience you'll know roughly different equities against different ranges?

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

Strangely the river diamond didnt stop this hand from annoying me.

BS

Hectorjelly

Mr.Plough wrote:

quick question.

Your the villain with KK in this hand. You can assign a range fairly quickly to HJ, but is there a quick way to calculate a rough estimate of your equity without the aid of pokerstove, pen & paper etc. Or is it just a case of with time and experience you'll know roughly different equities against different ranges?

well in this case its easy as draws are mostly coinflips and sets really suck, so you know its going to be around 30-40%. You dont need to know exactly, just have a rough feel.

The_Daddy_H

Quick question: If you had a set why would you play it like that against an overpair, assuming you know its an overpair. Sure, theres a flush draw on board but thats no so important if your opponent has an overpair.

Hectorjelly

I dont expect an over pair to fold, so I should get the money in before the board gets scary. Also there are multiple other opponents in the hand who I cant allow to draw for cheap etc etc

The_Daddy_H

Sorry what I meant was if you were err you in the hand ( not the guy with KK ).

Hawk Eye

The_Daddy_H wrote:

Quick question: If you had a set why would you play it like that against an overpair, assuming you know its an overpair. Sure, theres a flush draw on board but thats no so important if your opponent has an overpair.

You play it for 2 reasons
-You don't want a flush card coming and ruining your action.
-He might put you on the draw by your raise and play for stacks.

Hectorjelly

The_Daddy_H wrote:

Sorry what I meant was if you were err you in the hand ( not the guy with KK ).

im confused

fuzzbox

fold

fuzzbox

eoghan104 wrote:

I call here very fast. His range is 55+ and AJs+ it looks like hes trying to snap off your continuation bet. Stacks are too shallow to ever fold here. I have a feeling your the villain here though as you only have 175.

Trying to snap off a big CB into 4 players?? ... hardly.

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

Correctly guessed eoghan, I was the villain. Just a few points, when the guy bet out for $26 i was almost certain he had an good overpair. I personally would never turn up with any one pair hand here, im not flat calling preflop with AA (obv) or KK, and if i call with QQ JJ TT etc its not to go mental on a ragged board. Against the range of hands I could have, which is all good draws (at worst NFD) and sets its a pretty bad call.

I found this spot annoying, (I had 9d Td) as I knew he wasnt going to fold. Pushing is still best though I think just on the off chance he decides to fold TT or something like that.

The rest of your post is LOL though eoghan, only an idiot would cb into 5 loose idiots with nothing, and no-one in their right mind is going to try and take someone off their obvious overpair on the off chance they have gone temporarily mad.

Strangely the river diamond didnt stop this hand from annoying me.

Why would it annoy you? You want his call, in the long run, from precisely this type of hand.

You, of course, will have these big draws and sets virtually always, so you make lots in the long run.

willietherock

Hectorjelly wrote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by sikes
You should raise more preflop, bet more on the flop.

If there is 102 in the middle and you have 141 left. You only need 36% to win the hand. Once you add into the chance that he will sometimes wake up with TT/JJ or a weaker draw lashing it in is fine. I would guess you will have at least 40% in this situation.





I think its 37%, but its closer than I thought. Also I personally will never turn up with TT or JJ. Not sure about a weaker draw; maybe a gutshot and flush draw.

With full stacks its probably a more clear fold.

Im lost, anyone explain where the 36/37% figure is coming from. I know it something to do with risking 141 to win 243 or something likewise but can't seem to come up up with the 36 % figure.

Thx.

fuzzbox

willietherock wrote:

Im lost, anyone explain where the 36/37% figure is coming from. I know it something to do with risking 141 to win 243 or something likewise but can't seem to come up up with the 36 % figure.

Thx.

Think of a number between 1 and 50,
Multilply it by 6
Add 4
Divide by 5
Add 67
Take away 40
Think of a country beginning with D, quickly now
Thing of an an animal beginning with E, .... quickly
Multiply by 7

And you should get 37%

sikes

fuzzbox wrote:

Think of a number between 1 and 50,
Multilply it by 6
Add 4
Divide by 5
Add 67
Take away 40
Think of a country beginning with D, quickly now
Thing of an an animal beginning with E, .... quickly
Multiply by 7

And you should get 37%

An alternative method that, admittedly, has much more variance is.

243/141 = 1.723

100/ (1.723+1) = 36.7%

opr

willietherock wrote:

Im lost, anyone explain where the 36/37% figure is coming from. I know it something to do with risking 141 to win 243 or something likewise but can't seem to come up up with the 36 % figure.

Thx.

243/141 pot odds are 1.74/1 this means to break even you will need to win at least 1 out of 2.74 times ~ 37%

You then compare the pot odds with your oppoents range against yours to see if a call is good or not.

See the point that Fuzz makes about sometimes we show up with a set here and sometimes we show up with a big draws so in the long run we make dollars ?

See here against non thinking bad players who will call here just cause the have an OP and are not thinking about our range just about thier hand. Do you think we should just fold hands like HJ's ? Surely is a high variance play that in the end has no real benefit.

Its kinda like the thread a while back where we take slightly -EV situations for our Metagame but that maybe in this case its better to play closer to optimal for that particular hand.

I do understand that in this hand its not -EV sitaution but hopefully you get the gist of what i am saying.

Opr

Hitman Actual

Where are people getting the 243 figure from? I can't get that from the OP. What am I missing?

Edit: I think it should be 233, but that's only a minor detail, forget about it.