Bubble play

DEmeant0r

So, you're a little less than avg stack with 40 to go in the bubble in a big MTT(Millions) which means there's only two or three orbits left til you're itm, you're in the BB and it's folded to the button who has been making regular raises/stealing, do you let him get away with it this time and do shove when he does that when you're itm or do you try and make a stand and shove(which essentially means putting him all in as well)?

Got knocked out with 40 to go the money last night and wondered if what I had done was alright, my read was right but I was also scared he'd call and i'd get knocked out:

PokerStars Game #11330333199: Tournament #56608926, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2007/08/05 - 20:09:00 (ET)
Table '56608926 361' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: IMFNTERRIBLE (66798 in chips)
Seat 2: sobrasada (60710 in chips)
Seat 3: tony_jj (190241 in chips)
Seat 4: de piggybank (46596 in chips)
Seat 5: Giiant (63780 in chips)
Seat 6: JBL_1970 (21192 in chips)
Seat 7: DEmeant0r (52149 in chips)
Seat 8: rembones (47404 in chips)
Seat 9: tigercrown (24313 in chips)
IMFNTERRIBLE: posts the ante 300
sobrasada: posts the ante 300
tony_jj: posts the ante 300
de piggybank: posts the ante 300
Giiant: posts the ante 300
JBL_1970: posts the ante 300
DEmeant0r: posts the ante 300
rembones: posts the ante 300
tigercrown: posts the ante 300
JBL_1970: posts small blind 1500
DEmeant0r: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DEmeant0r [Kh Th]
rembones: folds
tigercrown: folds
IMFNTERRIBLE: folds
sobrasada: folds
tony_jj: folds
de piggybank: folds
Giiant: raises 9000 to 12000
JBL_1970: folds
DEmeant0r: raises 39849 to 51849 and is all-in
Giiant: calls 39849
*** FLOP *** [Ah 9h 8c]
*** TURN *** [Ah 9h 8c] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [Ah 9h 8c Jd] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DEmeant0r: shows [Kh Th] (high card Ace)
Giiant: shows [Ac 6h] (a pair of Aces)
Giiant collected 107898 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 107898 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 9h 8c Jd 2s]
Seat 1: IMFNTERRIBLE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: sobrasada folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: tony_jj folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: de piggybank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Giiant (button) showed [Ac 6h] and won (107898) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: JBL_1970 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: DEmeant0r (big blind) showed [Kh Th] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 8: rembones folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: tigercrown folded before Flop (didn't bet)

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

DEmeant0r

Well it's not just the $50, you also get your buyin back so you can do it again next week

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

jimmii

In these big MTTs the first payouts are so small you should really not worry about them at all if you are it normally means the buy-ins are too big for your bankroll. This is a pretty good spot to push and he's pretty much putting his tourney on the line on the assumption you are playing back with nothing by calling with A6.

insafehands

LuckyLloyd wrote:

The first point about bubble play, and I'm not getting at you here, is that if getting your buy - in back would represent a positive achievment for you: you should not have entered the tournament in the first place. Deregister next week if this is the case.

Very unfair Lloyd. The importance of getting your money back is completely relative to the person involved and their goal in entering the tournament. Some do it for fun, others for pure profit. I don't know what the OP's intention was but to say he should unreg for the next tourney isn't right. Getting in the money is a positive achievement, not success though.

RoadSweeper

Tbh you should be going for the high score all the time. This means making the correct move. Pushing all in was the correct move and you lost, ul gg

DEmeant0r

insafehands wrote:

Very unfair Lloyd. The importance of getting your money back is completely relative to the person involved and their goal in entering the tournament. Some do it for fun, others for pure profit. I don't know what the OP's intention was but to say he should unreg for the next tourney isn't right. Getting in the money is a positive achievement, not success though.

I was playing for fun and to see what the standard is in that tourney, and yes I am not bankrolled for such a tourney and it was my first time playing such a tourney, I don't even plan on playing once in two months.

jimmii

In that case fold to the money. How did you find the skill level compared out of curiosity.

DEmeant0r

it was generally absolutely awful, though have played a good few hands with some skilled players, Victor Ramdin and Elky were playing, wish I could've been at their tables

DEmeant0r

LuckyLloyd wrote:

The first point about bubble play, and I'm not getting at you here, is that if getting your buy - in back would represent a positive achievment for you: you should not have entered the tournament in the first place. Deregister next week if this is the case.

One final point I'd like to make about bubble play is that getting your buy-in back for a tourney should be a positive achievement for anyone regardless if you're bank rolled or not/playing for fun or profit/playing to win or not, this is a positive achievement because you're atleast getting back something back for the time you have invested in the tourney. I hope this point of view is shared with some.

I also realise I should've folded to the money in view of the paragraph above, but that guy was doing my head in, he stole my last three blinds but I had to take a stand at some stage.

mrflash

well i have a different opinion about stars, i reckon that if you shoved with the a6 and he called with k10, he would have won anyways, honestly the more i play on stars the more im certain that there is some rigging there. i even sent them an email regarding this big stack outdraws small stack thing. i asked them if they could supply me with stats on the percentages of outdraws by bigger stacks against small stacks in the mid late and late parts of their mtt's, they told me it would be impossible to track. its amazing how they have so many stats but just not the one you are looking for.

my honest opinion is that you just sit there and get blinded out if you are intent on making the money, and you will make it. but if you want to go well in the tourney, you have to stay aggressive. and to each his own targets, if you are making a couple of grand a week, then fine go for it, but if you are a recreational player and you value the return of your entry fee, then by all means sit tight.

ozpoker

While I agree that folding into the money shouldn't be your overall strategy, we still need to be concerned with +EV or -EV play. The buyin is already a sunk cost, so any gain from this point is good, even if it's "just" a $50 profit.

I disagree with Lloyd that a jam here with KTs is "standard". While the play is defensible, it is possible the the button has a real hand, plus we are nowhere near desperation time. The fact that the hero got looked up with a weak Ace shows that the villain was expecting just this sort of play when he raised to begin with. I know that if I were the villain and if I had been pounding the BB, I wouldn't make the initial raise without mentally committing my stack. Sometimes the folding equity you think you have from these sort of resteal plays is illusory.

I think I can find a fold here and wait a little longer to make a move.

-Oz-

Hectorjelly

The time for making moves is not when you are in desperation stage.

Also can we add to the charter that anyone implying stars or any other site is rigged is liable to be banned.

cardshark202

No but this move here is fine. Your stack is only just large enough to resteal though.

ozpoker

Hectorjelly wrote:

The time for making moves is not when you are in desperation stage.

Well, there are degrees of desperation. And just because you aren't yet desperate doesn't mean you have carte blanche to make "moves" either.

Perhaps I should have been clearer. As you become more desperate, your range for most plays should start widening. My implication is that the hero's stack is plenty big enough to wait for higher percentage plays. His jam here really smells like a move, and therefore is a reason not to make it.

As I said, I think the move is somewhat defensible. Without being too results orinted, the fact that the hero got called pretty lightly shows that the target for this play was questionable. Someone who calls here with A6 is probably willing to call with a huge chunk of his raising range, meaning the folding equity from the resteal is pretty small. I'd only want to make a move like this with this stack size if I had positive evidence the move had a good chance to succeed; as it was the villain outplayed the hero.

-Oz-

ozpoker

DEmeant0r wrote:

I also realise I should've folded to the money in view of the paragraph above, but that guy was doing my head in, he stole my last three blinds but I had to take a stand at some stage.

Why?

I don't understand this attitude. Just pick up blinds from from the players on your left.

To paraphrase Mike Caro: it's not your blind. It's just money in the pot. Sever any attachment you have to it and make good decisions.

(Which isn't to say that your resteal play wasn't correct, but it was certainly a big gamble with your stack size at that point.)

-Oz-

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

gosplan

Ah 9h 8c Jd....

ach, so many outs.

Hitman Actual

If you think you're going to get looked up light, then you shouldn't be restealing against a big stack in a bubble situation. KTs is too weak here. You need something like TT+ or AK/Q, for a steal to be $EV profitable. Of course, if you think your opponent will fold a lot, then your cards don't matter, and you can nearly push any two.

I know it sucks having your blinds constantly robbed, but if you're going to get looked up light then just let it go.

Hitman Actual

mrflash wrote:

well i have a different opinion about stars, i reckon that if you shoved with the a6 and he called with k10, he would have won anyways, honestly the more i play on stars the more im certain that there is some rigging there. i even sent them an email regarding this big stack outdraws small stack thing. i asked them if they could supply me with stats on the percentages of outdraws by bigger stacks against small stacks in the mid late and late parts of their mtt's, they told me it would be impossible to track. its amazing how they have so many stats but just not the one you are looking for.

lol, wtf?

Hectorjelly

how does he know hes going to be looked up light before it happens!!!

Without knowing the table dynamics or history its simply impossible to know if it was good or not. You cant say just because the guy called with A6 that he was always going to call lightly, if ive been raising someones blind a lot in the past few hands then I will call them very lightly. And in fact if you are going to be called very lightly then it doesnt make it that less profitable as hes going to call with low pairs or other coinflip like scenaries which arent that bad at all. Sitting here waiting until you get TT+ or AQ is just awful play. You have to push here given the stacks sizes and freq of attack with any pair and any ace, other hands are somewhat marginal. Your opponent will often be opening with hands that cant stand any action whatsoever.

Theres also meta considerations, I couldnt imagine a more ideal opponent than someone is going to sit back and wait for a superb hand until they play back at me, especially with an almost perfect stack size. If you are playing a guy who always plays like this then you can raise with impunity, and also fold any close decions.

DEmeant0r

lenny_leonard wrote:

If you think you're going to get looked up light, then you shouldn't be restealing against a big stack in a bubble situation. KTs is too weak here. You need something like TT+ or AK/Q, for a steal to be $EV profitable. Of course, if you think your opponent will fold a lot, then your cards don't matter, and you can nearly push any two.

I know it sucks having your blinds constantly robbed, but if you're going to get looked up light then just let it go.

He had a similar stack to me, so he was infact putting 85% of his stack on the assumption that I was playing back at him. He was a pretty weak player, I actually thought I could make him fold it, but how wrong was I... he was lucky in his assumption that time.

Hitman Actual

Hectorjelly wrote:

how does he know hes going to be looked up light before it happens!!!

Without knowing the table dynamics or history its simply impossible to know if it was good or not. You cant say just because the guy called with A6 that he was always going to call lightly, if ive been raising someones blind a lot in the past few hands then I will call them very lightly. And in fact if you are going to be called very lightly then it doesnt make it that less profitable as hes going to call with low pairs or other coinflip like scenaries which arent that bad at all. Sitting here waiting until you get TT+ or AQ is just awful play. You have to push here given the stacks sizes and freq of attack with any pair and any ace, other hands are somewhat marginal. Your opponent will often be opening with hands that cant stand any action whatsoever.

Theres also meta considerations, I couldnt imagine a more ideal opponent than someone is going to sit back and wait for a superb hand until they play back at me, especially with an almost perfect stack size. If you are playing a guy who always plays like this then you can raise with impunity, and also fold any close decions.

Okay, the range I'm giving is very tight, but this is a bubble situation. Just because it's +CEV to push with a lot of hands, it doesn't mean that it's $EV profitable. Stealing against big stacks on the bubble is not very profitable at all, except when you have a lot of FE.

cardshark202

Its not a steal if you push with TT+ AQ+.

DEmeant0r

lenny_leonard wrote:

Okay, the range I'm giving is very tight, but this is a bubble situation. Just because it's +CEV to push with a lot of hands, it doesn't mean that it's $EV profitable. Stealing against big stacks on the bubble is not very profitable at all, except when you have a lot of FE.

As stated, he was not a big stack, he had 3BB more than me.

Hitman Actual

Yikes, I think I got my point across incorrectly. On the bubble you have to avoid the other big stacks. When I say a big stack, I mean anything more than 20BBs or so, which is normal for a regular local tournament coming into the final stages. Doubling through a big stack gains you very little as regards dollar equity in a bubble situation. Always target the smaller stacks.

If you run through some bubble scenarios with ICM, then you'll see situations where, as a big stack, you need QQ+ to get involved. KT is a pile of sh!te here.

cardshark202

Lenny, you are normally on the ball here but I disagree with almost all of that post. Doubling through any stack, especially one similiar to yours is worth a lot in dollar equity imo, as it reduces the other stack's dollar equity too and will also put us in better shape to make bigger equity gains later on in the tourney. Plus most players play too tight around the bubble, even the big stacks as they don't want to risk what they've got. The tiny stacks are in one of 2 positions: A. desperate for a double up or B. desperate to make the money. Targetting the correct stacks is one of the most important factors when approaching the bubble.
Thats a little waffly but I think the gist of what I was trying to get across is there

Hitman Actual

cardshark202 wrote:

Lenny, you are normally on the ball here but I disagree with almost all of that post. Doubling through any stack, especially one similiar to yours is worth a lot in dollar equity imo, as it reduces the other stack's dollar equity too and will also put us in better shape to make bigger equity gains later on in the tourney. Plus most players play too tight around the bubble, even the big stacks as they don't want to risk what they've got. The tiny stacks are in one of 2 positions: A. desperate for a double up or B. desperate to make the money. Targetting the correct stacks is one of the most important factors when approaching the bubble.
Thats a little waffly but I think the gist of what I was trying to get across is there

In my defense, I've been beered up since Sunday, so I was over the legal limit for posting in any reply I made in this thread. I'm actually not even sure what my original point was meant to be. The range I gave of big pairs and big aces looks insanely tight in the cold light of day. And as HJ says, it's hard to know if you're going to get looked up light, but when you have any reason to believe that you will be looked up light, then KTs is at the bottom of your range for pushing, imo. It's very marginal, but the extra money from the antes makes it okay, I suppose. But when your opponent is folding a lot, then you can push nearly anything.