AQ Flush Draw - 100NL

dvdfan

Noble Poker Bathurst (No DP) 0.50/1, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($120.95)
SB ($174.66)
BB Hero ($98.50)
UTG ($40.08)
UTG+1 ($77.40)
CO ($87.95)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with Q A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 4, CO calls 4, 2 folds, Hero calls 3.

Flop (12.50) 7 6 T
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets 10, Hero calls 10, 1 fold.

Turn (32.50) K
Hero checks, CO checks.

River (32.50) 6
Hero bets 22, CO raises to 73.95, Hero ???

Comments on all 3 streets, should i be getting involved with this hand at all. Villain has only a small sample playing 60/10/0.58 over like 15 hands so not really helpful at all over that small a sample. I didnt bet the turn when i hit because i taught he might fold a hand i beat and it might intice him to semi bluff representing the flush, bad good?

BobSloane

I'd prob let it go or re-raise pf. On the flop you call a near pot size bet oop with a Q high flush draw. Don't think this is very good. When you hit you on the turn you check it to him. No way he's betting here after your scary flop call without the A of clubs. Maybe he has the red Ts or red Ks and assumes you have A of clubs when you called on the flop. You bet on the river when you're not beating anything he can call with
I'd be reasonably confident he has a full house here

dvdfan

I'd prob let it go or re-raise pf

Id like a discussion on this, i agree calling with AJ-AQ & KQ OOP isnt great, were missing the flop 1/3 of the time and check/folding alot when we do miss and even when we do hit were possibly dominated leaving us in a situation where were winning small pots but possibly losing big pots because we cant control pot size so well OOP. As far as this villain stats go although there not a big enough sample hge raises 10% of hands and hes raising for EP so im in bad shape versus hes range so i agree calling here is probably bad.

On 3betting though is that a wise option. If we take a typical say maybe 14% PFR villain and narrow it down to 10% because hes in EP, ok this calculation should probably be tighter but for the sake of this say you come to the conclusion hes raising 10% of hands from this position and we hold AQ. Hes range would be

55+,A9s+,AJ+,KTs+,QJs+ & KQ

What hands in that range will he fold that beats us: Little or nothing
What hands in thar range will he call with that are ahead of us:
AK,99-AA
What hands in that range will he call that were ahead of giving hes reasonable tight i.e 20/14
AJ myabe QJs + KQs and less likely A9s-ATs

So were folding out alot of hands we beat and alot of hands that beat us are calling. Its true we take down the flop with a donk bet alot of the time but its also true that well hit a Q high flop and A high flop and lose a big pot to dominated hands aswell as the times we donk bet and he comes over the top and we have to fold.

So i think your correct in calling is bad but is 3betting also -EV, this is assuming the person has around a 10% raising range from that position, if hes range is tighter or looser it makes folding and 3betting respectively the best options but in this case whats your taughts?

On the flop you call a near pot size bet oop with a Q high flush draw. Don't think this is very good.

Yeah i think i overvalue these skinny 1 card draws especially when its not to the nuts, i overvalue hands like say J8 on a 567 board, i think i should be folding them more often because im really only winning small - medium and losing big pots when they hit.

When you hit you on the turn you check it to him. No way he's betting here after your scary flop call without the A of clubs.

Yeah true but in this scenario i dont think hes calling with many hands i beat either so i taught he migh try and rep the flush.

Maybe he has the red Ts or red Ks and assumes you have A of clubs when you called on the flop. I'd be reasonably confident he has a full house here

Whats a red T's a set of Ts i presume? Anyway you were spot on and he had T's full of 6's. No point being results orientated my play was still bad and he deserved to outdraw me.

You bet on the river when you're not beating anything he can call with

I figure AK, AA,QQ maybe JJ and lower flushes call here all day, but i should have folded to the All in, none of the above hands would push there so im beating nothing and like a muppet on acid i made the call:(

phantom_lord

betting the river is fine, but it's a super easy fold when he shoves. I'd reraise pf, and fold the flop tho.