Set sniffing??

Macspower

Regular enough occurrance.... How do you sniff out a set?? whats reads do you use?? are we just playing off if they hit?

typical situation I've been coming across... I have a big pair say KK or AA in the blinds and someone raises 4 bb's and I RR to say 14 bb's... He calls...

flop comes rags 7 6 3 no fd.

I bet for about 2/3 of the pot and he raises....

I often end up getting it in there and then and they show an overpair to the board 88+ but quite often they have a set but the action looks the very same....

He's an example....

Button is in seat 10
Total number of players: 6

Seat 1: SB ($197,95)
Seat 3: Hero ($200,00)
Seat 5: UTG ($135,72)
Seat 6: UTG+1 ($212,40)
Seat 8: CO ($211,00)
Seat 10: BTN ($558,49)

SB posts small blind of $1,00
Hero posts big blind of $2,00

Hero is dealt Kd,Kc

UTG folds
UTG+1 raises to $8,00
CO folds
BTN folds
SB folds
Hero raises to $25,00
UTG+1 calls $17,00


Dealing flop 8c,3d,5s
Pot is: $53,00

Hero bets $40,00
UTG+1 raises to $80,00
Hero raises to $175,00
UTG+1 calls $95,00


Dealing turn 9h
Pot is: $443,00



Dealing river 4s
Pot is: $443,00

Is this a set or a pair bigger than 8's?

Any reasoning you use to determine appreciated....

Captain Tom

reads on the player are pretty important.

Ace2007

I think its a set, if a player raises pre flop and then calls a reraise, i'd put him on a strong Ace or middle pair(unless i know him), 77-99. therfore strong possibilty he has hit his set of 8's on the flop, doubt he'd play 77 like that.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Macspower

Ace2007 wrote:

I think its a set, if a player raises pre flop and then calls a reraise, i'd put him on a strong Ace or middle pair(unless i know him), 77-99. therfore strong possibilty he has hit his set of 8's on the flop, doubt he'd play 77 like that.

So how do you play it from the flop?? thats what I'm trying to figure out

Macspower

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Mac - I'm pretty certain you are asking the impossible if you are looking for some type of standarised formula for figuring when you have been kicked in the balls by the deck.

Stats, reads, player tendencies, table flow are your best friends here. And just go broke a lot with 100 BBs or less.

yeah suppose I am really...lol....asking the impossible and going broke....

Theresalwaysone

Problem for me also and have been giving it much thought. I tend to drastically overplay my premium starting pairs.

I think all you can do, is try and spot how he played a set before. The problem though, which you have mentioned, is that the action of a set and an overpair to a trashy board is very similar.

1. You need to know your player: is he good or bad?
Good players tend to NOT overplay middling "overpairs" i.e 77, 88, 99, to 623 boards. They typically tend to realise there overpair may not be good and on a non-drawy board will try to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible. This could be the read you need, More calling than raising and/or pushing.

Bad players will generally stack off, I find it very difficult to differentiate between the action of a middling overpair and a set on the board you described. Again, watching and concentrating is all you can do. I think finding out how he previously played a set and an overpair is vital. I know it may only be a subtle difference but information is information and you need it to make good decisions.

2. Sets are often played more "tricky" i.e he will try to do something that confuses you so to help you make the biggest mistake. This is always a tell tale sign for me. i.e generally I find unusual play to be a BIG hand. As players with a big hand want a call and will try and confuse you into it, players with a weak hand know ( or should know ) that confusion=unpredictability and thats not what you want when running a bluff.

3. Time-delay, I know this is a contentious issue but people with a big hand generally seem to think a bit longer, this is to convey weakness but also to help them figure out just how much value they can get out of this hand.

Again, Im having the same problems so don't take anything i said as solid, its just what I use to help me.

valor

never fold KK or AA on a low board in a re raised pot for 100bb

Macspower

Theresalwaysone wrote:

Problem for me also and have been giving it much thought. I tend to drastically overplay my premium starting pairs.

I think all you can do, is try and spot how he played a set before. The problem though, which you have mentioned, is that the action of a set and an overpair to a trashy board is very similar.

1. You need to know your player: is he good or bad?
Good players tend to NOT overplay middling "overpairs" i.e 77, 88, 99, to 623 boards. They typically tend to realise there overpair may not be good and on a non-drawy board will try to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible. This could be the read you need, More calling than raising and/or pushing.

Bad players will generally stack off, I find it very difficult to differentiate between the action of a middling overpair and a set on the board you described. Again, watching and concentrating is all you can do. I think finding out how he previously played a set and an overpair is vital. I know it may only be a subtle difference but information is information and you need it to make good decisions.

2. Sets are often played more "tricky" i.e he will try to do something that confuses you so to help you make the biggest mistake. This is always a tell tale sign for me. i.e generally I find unusual play to be a BIG hand. As players with a big hand want a call and will try and confuse you into it, players with a weak hand know ( or should know ) that confusion=unpredictability and thats not what you want when running a bluff.

3. Time-delay, I know this is a contentious issue but people with a big hand generally seem to think a bit longer, this is to convey weakness but also to help them figure out just how much value they can get out of this hand.

Again, Im having the same problems so don't take anything i said as solid, its just what I use to help me.

thanks for your thoughts..... some food for thought

Macspower

read on this player is stats only.... he's 28/12/1.7/126

Ace2007

Macspower wrote:

read on this player is stats only.... he's 28/12/1.7/126

that might as well be chineses to me - don't play online - so no idea what these mean...

Macspower

This is how this hand played out..... I really have a hard time folding KK in this spot because I think he might have a set...... it's often an overpair but also often a set..... tough one

Button is in seat 10
Total number of players: 6

Seat 1: SB ($197,95)
Seat 3: Hero ($200,00)
Seat 5: UTG ($135,72)
Seat 6: UTG+1 ($212,40)
Seat 8: CO ($211,00)
Seat 10: BTN ($558,49)

SB posts small blind of $1,00
Hero posts big blind of $2,00

Hero is dealt Kd,Kc

UTG folds
UTG+1 raises to $8,00
CO folds
BTN folds
SB folds
Hero raises to $25,00
UTG+1 calls $17,00


Dealing flop 8c,3d,3s
Pot is: $53,00

Hero bets $40,00
UTG+1 raises to $80,00
Hero raises to $175,00
UTG+1 calls $95,00


Dealing turn 9h
Pot is: $443,00



Dealing river 4s
Pot is: $443,00


Hero wins $398,00

Rake and uncalled bets: $45,00

Summary:
Seat 1: SB loses $1,00
Seat 3: Hero wins $156,00 with Kd,Kc
Seat 5: UTG stays even
Seat 6: UTG+1 loses $200,00 with Qd,Qc
Seat 8: CO stays even
Seat 10: BTN stays even

kakak1

Ace2007 wrote:

I think its a set, if a player raises pre flop and then calls a reraise, i'd put him on a strong Ace or middle pair(unless i know him), 77-99. therfore strong possibilty he has hit his set of 8's on the flop, doubt he'd play 77 like that.

first hand of rebuy tournament, €50 + €10 Reg + €25 (rebuy). No info on any of the other players. Starting stack 8,000.
Blinds 50/100, 3 limpers Button has AA & raises to 600, SB & BB fold as do all others except CO+1 who calls. Flop 10s 8c 3s. (Pot 1650).

CO+1 bets the flop 1,500, Button reraises to 3,000 & CO+1 goes all in.

What next

cardshark202

call quick

Ace2007

kakak1 wrote:

first hand of rebuy tournament, €50 + €10 Reg + €25 (rebuy). No info on any of the other players. Starting stack 8,000.
Blinds 50/100, 3 limpers Button has AA & raises to 600, SB & BB fold as do all others except CO+1 who calls. Flop 10s 8c 3s. (Pot 1650).

CO+1 bets the flop 1,500, Button reraises to 3,000 & CO+1 goes all in.

What next

where is this rebuy tournament where u start with 8K???

the button raise of 3K looks weak, its a min raise, so the push all in by the CO was a good move, if you had of played the hand right(imo this does not mean you min raise) then u'd be in a better position and be able to guess what he has, but due to the fact its a rubuy tourney - i'd call. if it was a FO -i'd think about it for a while - and then probably fold

but seriously where is this tournament ??? and what u mean by €50 + €10 Reg + €25 - €25 to rebuy????r wat

pumpkinpints

the blinds start at 50-100 aswell, so as good as a 4K starting stack.

Slash/ED

It all depends on reads. Low pocket pairs especially are played drastically different between experienced players and non experienced players. For example, is he the kind of play who see's pocket 4's and raises way way above the standard opening raise as he has some bizzare notion that he needs to 'protect' his hand? Alot of bad players do this with low pocket pairs and low pocket pairs only. Or, is he the kind of person to limp-call UTG with low pairs and pretty much nothing else? Does he play for set value or over rate the starting hand? You'd be surprised how many live cash players do the latter. Getting to know his pre flop tendencies makes decisions later in the hand infinitely easier.

For example, playing 100bb stacks all round, a complete nit flat calls UTG. UTG+1 (Yourself with the rockets) raises to 5bbs, there's two more callers, back to the nit, he flat calls. He's shown a tendency to do this with hands like 89s and low pocket pairs before. Given the action we can pretty much rule out any premium starting hand as he'd have re-raised.

Flop comes 7 2 4 rainbow. He checks, you bet out 15bbs, fold, fold, and back to him who re-pops you to 60. I'd fold here, and disagree that you can never find a fold with a hand like aces in this spot with 100bbs or less. What else is he playing like this? Of course this is an extreme example where the player is a nit and we've a read on his pre flop tendencies.

In your above case, I'd re-raise by a little more pre flop, but I'd be getting all my money in with that action too. With deeper stacks I'd let him peel off a turn first but in this case I'd be shoving. Without a read you have to get it in here really.

smilingatyou

have to say i was think over pair. if he flat called the 40 on the flop pot would be 130, you and him would have 140 behind. easy to get in on two more streets if you pick up the set. min raise seems like a push off with overpair.
ps i know answer is posted but i did my reasoning before scrolling down

Moneymaker

Sets are usually very disguised and they're hard to sniff out, but i've done it before, but not lately as i'm running colder then an Eskimo's dick right now. Deepstack tournaments or if you're deep in a cash game are really the only spots you can get away from big pairs if you suspect a set, your normal 50 euro buy-in tourny i'm usually going broke to a set though.

Arthurdaly

Get a life and stop obsessing about the turn of a deck of cards.

Hitman Actual

Arthurdaly wrote:

Get a life and stop obsessing about the turn of a deck of cards.

LOL, our favourite troll is back. Never did work out who you are.

Arthurdaly

Find a more fruitfull and fullfilling obsession!
You pros should know better than to be encouraging and grooming young degenerate wanna bes.

bohsman

Paddy? Nah he wouldnt know how to turn a computer on.

Arthurdaly

All i'll all say is our Lord Jesus Christ is a forgiving man but you people are destined for a lifetime in hell being prodded up the ass with Lucifers fork! God bless your souls and gud nite t'yas!

Hitman Actual

Worst troll ever. You really need to be a bit more creative if you want to start handbags on this forum. In the words of another well-loved loser: "You're boring. Stop boring me."

bohsman

Hmm 32 year old that went to South America last year, I wont post a link to his PI thread but its easy enough to find, I cant figure out who it is but Im sure hes a regular around town.

Mr.Plough

im still fairly mouldy, but whats with the influx of trolls lately?

Hitman Actual

Mr.Plough wrote:

im still fairly mouldy, but whats with the influx of trolls lately?

That guy was here before about a year ago, going on about the evils of online poker and whatever. (I think he was actually multi-tabling 8 tables at the time!) I was fairly sure it was just a regular under a different user name acting the bollix. Going by his other posts, I'm not so sure now.