slightly overbetting!!

bops

hiya all

i've been playing a lot on party 2/4 six max for the last month and this situation had popped up 10 times exactly in the last 3 days - i've played it the same way otr every time - just like to hear some opinions.

i would be viewed as uber unpredictable!?! (well i dunno - i don't do stats!)

folded to me in the SB (600) - i limp with AsAc
BB checks (400)

Flop: Ah Kh 3c (8)

I check, he bets 4, I call (16)

Turn: 2s

I check, he bets 8, I call (32)

River: Ad

I push covering his 400 or so behind!!

I would probably have a mental image - i could do this with anything?
would I do this with less that the nutleys?
What would you need in this spot to call me??

Please ignore how I've played the earlier streets - i'm well aware that they were not optimal, it's just once in a while I choose to try something different (if that's allowed!) - I am only interested in what ye think of the river

many thanks

bops

Ste05

In the last month you've limped a big PP in the SB v BB and C/C to the River then overbet shoved when you hit quads 10 times??? :eek: :eek:

How many hands did you play last month, like 200 million?? Or have you finally found a way to hack the code to deal yourself perfect cards, or maybe you just run better than God would if he played cards?

As for your question, I'd only ever call this bet with a house, especially as it's impossible for him to have trips. So thats KK, 22 and 33 for me. in which case you could have got the money in at any stage before the River by raising, or he might be an idiot and called with something like a mental straight. Certainly I'd beat AAA

bops

ok ok ok

what i mean is that i've really slow played hands that were the nuts on the river - where the pot was small and i've pushed for 100+ BB's - i've 4 tabled 2/4 for 40/60 hrs per wk for the last month

bops

Ste05 wrote:

...you just run better than God would if he played cards?

pfft - i'd kick his ass!

BrandonBlock

/me rubs bops for some good luck

bops

Ste05 wrote:

So thats KK, 22 and 33 for me. in which case you could have got the money in at any stage before the River by raising, or he might be an idiot and called with something like a mental straight. Certainly I'd beat AAA

how can 22 be good and 45 be mental?? 4th nuts vs 5th nuts ????

Ste05

bops wrote:

ok ok ok

what i mean is that i've really slow played hands that were the nuts on the river - where the pot was small and i've pushed for 100+ BB's - i've 4 tabled 2/4 for 40/60 hrs per wk for the last month

LOL, I know, I was just riding your nuts...

Someone like Sikes or Lenny or other better than me maths guy could work out the EV of the push. The way it's done is by working out what % of the time you think he'll call the big bet compared to the % of times you think he'll call a smaller bet and then work out which has a better expectation.

e.g. if the pot is 32 and you have 400 behind.

If you think he'll call a shove 5% of the time, then the EV of the push is 400 x 5% = 20

Or if you think he'll call a pot size bet, say 50% of the time the EV of that would be 32 x 50% = 19

And so on and so on.... Obviously he'll call a min bet 100% of the time so the EV of that is 4 x 100% = 4

Maybe call a half pot sized bet 75% of the time, so the EV of that would be 18 x 75% = 13.5.

As for working out these %'s it's just from what you subjectively think he'll do based on previous history. You could start looking at %'s where you could induce a River raise etc. but then it just get's mental...

[EDIT: I just plucked those figures out of the air as they are just for illustrative purposes]

Ste05

bops wrote:

how can 22 be good and 45 be mental?? 4th nuts vs 5th nuts ????

True but TBH I would also consider folding 22 or 33 there too. Not many people over-bet shove bluff the River there to win $32!! I'd say at least you have A2.

BobSloane

Yesterday I pushed 120 into a pot of 30 on the river with quad 8s and got called. My hand was 86o though. He called with AJ without having hit. I think its a good move but more depending on you opponent than on what they think of you. Some people will fold a small full house in your hand and some will call with a high card. If you pull the move alot against the right type of person they don't even have to call that often to be more profitable than value betting

bops

in the last 10 attempts i've been called 3 times

maybe i was just lucky for it to happen against retards - but then again i suppose 3/10 online players are very retarded!

it sure looks like a +EV to me - (the guy in the hand had 4h5h, but i have been called with way less)

bops

BrandonBlock wrote:

/me rubs bops for some good luck

is brandon block a DJ?? (i'm getting old so excuse me if im wrong!)

RoadSweeper

tbh your getting called here more often if you have a donk/overbetting image.

The worse your image the lighter your called imo.

I'd need a house to call this. But If the villian was doing it frequently i would consider lighter calling.

bops

i watch a lot of poker online as in the wpt ****e

anyway the button/sb always goes allin with lots of bb's with ****e like KJ and the BB calls for all his stack (say 40 BB's) with A3

what i'm trying to say is they always push with ****e, and get called with ****e (just a tad better ****e)

or look at what the likes of Hansen or deWolfe call big all-ins with - ****e!!

I know this is preflop, but if I ever get in that type of situation, I'll push 40 BB's PF with AA (and expect to be looked up by A2 KQ 33)

don't mind me - just a mental note to self!!

anyways push = strong and strong = weak if ya get me

bops

RoadSweeper wrote:

tbh your getting called here more often if you have a donk/overbetting image.

The worse your image the lighter your called imo.

I'd need a house to call this. But If the villian was doing it frequently i would consider lighter calling.

...i try my best!

RoadSweeper

lol!

Tbh at $20nl i used to over bet the river when i knew i had the hand won. Not always the nuts. I would bet $15 into $10 pot and i had a great frequency of calls.


I have tried since at $50nl the same tactic and it hasnt worked the same, meaning im losing out on value bets.

Ste05

bops wrote:

i watch a lot of poker online as in the wpt ****e

anyway the button/sb always goes allin with lots of bb's with ****e like KJ and the BB calls for all his stack (say 40 BB's) with A3

what i'm trying to say is they always push with ****e, and get called with ****e (just a tad better ****e)

or look at what the likes of Hansen or deWolfe call big all-ins with - ****e!!

I know this is preflop, but if I ever get in that type of situation, I'll push 40 BB's PF with AA (and expect to be looked up by A2 KQ 33)

don't mind me - just a mental note to self!!

anyways push = strong and strong = weak if ya get me

LOL those are tourney donks, once they get past the flop they don't know WTF they're doing...

[Paging Lloyd and the other tourney donks...]

White Knight

Ste05 wrote:

[Paging Lloyd tourney donk...]

He is probably off playing cash

bops

Ste05 wrote:

LOL those are tourney donks, once they get past the flop they don't know WTF they're doing...

[Paging Lloyd and the other tourney donks...]

that is, in all seriousness, an excellent point and such a pity

bops

...but is +EV ffs man!!!

mdwexford

Ste05 wrote:

In the last month you've limped a big PP in the SB v BB and C/C to the River then overbet shoved when you hit quads 10 times??? :eek: :eek:

How many hands did you play last month, like 200 million?? Or have you finally found a way to hack the code to deal yourself perfect cards, or maybe you just run better than God would if he played cards?

oh the hilarity, maybe its funnier when you come home loaded at 4.40 but i rolled around laughing at this reply.