tourney odds question

coillcam

he raised a couple os other hands before this taking the blinds only. hes limp called a raise or two and as a result is short. not seen him showdown yet.


my equity is quite good vs all but AA,KK,JJ,AQ,1010,

if the best worst case scenariois 88,99,QQ,AJ,A10,A7

can i call this as a result?

Table 79099739 (Tournament: $6,500 Guaranteed Buy-In: $10+$1)
Seat 1: BaLaGaNoFf ($720.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 2: longchap ($1,360.00 in chips)
Seat 3: coillcam ($2,940.00 in chips)
Seat 4: bulldogge1 ($1,080.00 in chips)
Seat 5: samourai ($780.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Shorty75 ($1,620.00 in chips)
Seat 7: gaelgeoir ($2,795.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Bull15 ($2,165.00 in chips)
Seat 9: Nibz32 ($1,915.00 in chips)
Seat 10: fuglaespen ($1,545.00 in chips)
longchap: Post SB $30.00
coillcam: Post BB $60.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bulldogge1
Dealt to coillcam [KhQc]
bulldogge1: Raise $240.00
samourai: Fold
Shorty75: Fold
gaelgeoir: Fold
Bull15: Fold
Nibz32: Call $240.00
fuglaespen: Fold
BaLaGaNoFf: Fold
longchap: Fold
coillcam: Call $180.00
*** FLOP *** [HJ H7 D10] pot 750
coillcam: Check
bulldogge1: Allin $840.00
Nibz32: Fold

pot 1390, 840 to call. 1.6547619-1 pot odds. so i need 39.56835% equity
coillcam ????

Board: Jh 7h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.028% 38.83% 00.20% 34215 172.50 { KhQc }
Hand 1: 60.972% 60.78% 00.20% 53550 172.50 { 88+, A7s+, ATo+ }

this obviously slighlty -EV.

i had a feeling it was a dead heat before i checked the odds.

so my question is should you ever accept a neutral EV situation and / or if you are short stacked/covering villain signifigantly?

Flushdraw

Fold this hand to a raise OOP. Its not worth it. Take villians hand out of the OP

coillcam

cheers forgot to remove that.

i know its a weak hand oop to raiser, gettin jus over 3-1, he seems spewy thus far, thats my "enlightened" reasoning as to calling, blah etc.

any opinions on the rest appreciated flushdraw.

BuChan

just fold, you're priced out and if he has a flush draw you're up the creek.

BobSloane

If i'm going calling here anyway I would move all-in on him on that flop instead. He might have raised with 99 or Ace-something and find a fold.

As played you might have live overcards too if he has AJ or AT and you won't be crippled if you lose so...? depends on the mood really. live overcards makes you a slight favourite i think as long as he hasn't flopped a set 2 pair. hopefully he hasn't a flushdraw!

Flushdraw

If i call and hit this flop, i'm going to lead it. This gives you 2 chances of winning the pot. He will fold weak hands that have you beat and if he calls you have outs. I wouldnt be mad about the check call here. Leading is defo the best option