2 pair in the BB

sikes

SB is a really tight nit especially from the sb. he is 19/15/2.5 over a good sample but he rarely completes even in multiway pots like this. 56s is certainly in his range, but 56o is probablyunlikely. He would lead out with 2 pair 100% of the time, if he could have 74s, and i doubt he would ever check/raise with a lone J. The problem is that even though 56o could be there, he will double barrell the turn pretty much always according to my notes. Raising would be terrible as he will fold 56, but is folding ok or call and raise all in on the turn?

I have decided to post at least 2 hands a day for the next 9 days as I grind it out before i leave again as I have been playing pretty poorly.

100BB stacks.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with :Js :4d
UTG calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: :4c :Jh :7s ($4, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, UTG folds, CO calls, SB raises to $15, Hero ????

DemocAnarchis

Could be pocket 4s, not strong enough to lead on pf, but well good enough to raise you? I'd fold here if he is as tight as you say.

dvdfan

You seem to have a pretty solid read on him here so it looks like either the draw or a set of 4's or 7's, if you feel raising here will only result in you being called with a set or him folding the draw and also that hes going to double barrell then id just flat call and put him all in on a non 3 or 8 turn. Would he normally raise PP in the SB?

sikes

i have seen him set mine with 99 from the sb after calling a min raise from a lag tard. so 77 and 44 are certainly in his range. also i would have thought he would have led into the flop with 56 a lot of the time.

RedJoker

Given your read this is a fold.

ocallagh

how have you been playing? If he is a nit and you have played a lot with the villain it's important to know how he perceives your play.

I think I call but it's close. He has 56 and 74 just as often as 44/77/J7. He might have played AJ really weirdly too.

As for the rest of the hand, if I call the flop I more than likely go for broke on the turn.

sikes

most hands i have on him are mined, but im running at 20/15 this session over about 100 hands, i have played with him before and thats when i saw him double barrelling OOP with a FD in a limped pot.

not done anything of note against him or from the blinds. I have about 150, and he has ~100. I wouldnt lead here without a J and im sure he knows that. Theres no reason for either of us to be off our game.

I think if i call Im committed to the hand if a blank hits the turn. I dont see J7 being in his range, 47s is strechting it I would think. I guess AJ could be there, but he would usually raise that preflop.

Bandana boy

How have you been playing
I see alot of check raising from the sb against a BB with air of late
if he thought your where capable of laying down 1 pair and/or would lead with draws and middle pair

sikes

I would lead with 56 myself. Im not sure if he would know this, he is multitabling and im not sure how many hands he has on me. I dont think i have any notes relating to hands i played against him either.

Mr.Plough

id call the flop and get it in on the turn provided no draws hit.

would he really lead into 4 players with 56?

if hes as big a nit as you say from the sb he could easily have aj here.

Hand 0: 52.922% 52.75% 00.17% 311 24.00 { Js4d }
Hand 1: 47.078% 46.90% 00.17% 6501 24.00 { 77, 44, 65s, AJo }

ocallagh

Mr.Plough wrote:

id call the flop and get it in on the turn provided no draws hit.

would he really lead into 4 players with 56?

if hes as big a nit as you say from the sb he could easily have aj here.

Hand 0: 52.922% 52.75% 00.17% 311 24.00 { Js4d }
Hand 1: 47.078% 46.90% 00.17% 6501 24.00 { 77, 44, 65s, AJo }

I think that hand range is spot on and it looks like you have to go broke here sikes!

sikes

he checked riased me, I would think he could lead with 56, its a very good board to do it on. Its unliekly anyone has a draw or a K so its very difficult to see whats going to continue on that board. I would lead with 56 anyway.

EDIT: as soon as you remove AJ or even say give is a % of the time that he has AJ then it becomes a lot closer. I would include AJ in the like 10% of the time he is having a brain fart of some description as I except him to raise it preflop.

cardshark202

I think you should fold here if you're confident in your read

yahoo_moe

you seem fairly uncomfortable with his check-raise - i'd go with your read that he's strong and, given how close it is even with A-J included, fold

sikes

against the average player at this level I can profitably call knowing that a lone J makes up enough of their range and rarely a draw, and taking the hand to the turn in position is good. but with this guy being a very strong player for this level, i think calling knowing he is betting with his full range on the turn isnt great and im making a decision right now for my stack. I think im up against a set so much here that I folded.