Yuck Yucky Yucky tournament scenario.

NickyOD

Small 50 Euro live tournament. 14 players left. Top 3 or 4 get paid, I'm not sure but it was €500 for first place.

Blinds 400/800 going up to 600/1200 in about 4 minutes. After 2 limpers I limp from the SB with Ad4d. BB checks.

Flop is Kd-3d-2h. I lead for 2000. BB folds, UTG goes all in for 8,800, probably with top pair, then here's my dilemma, an ultra conservative but not a bad player cold calls. He has me covered and I have 12,500 more. I'm convinced he has 33 or 22 so much so that if I had 22 I would fold.

What do I do with my hand?

Chucky the tree

Shove it.

kryogen

its a tough spot to be in, do you want to play for your stack when your almost sure your so far behind??? with the size of the pot though if you pushed maybe its worth the gamble? i would normally fold this i think. especially if your read on this guy is pretty solid,why do you think he has a set? and if you would fold bottom set yourself here then do you really consider calling a flush draw???? yes im aware you could hit a 5 for the straight also.... i dont go broke here alot but if i was fairly confident that i would put myself in a great position to win with the chips i would gain from the pot i might do it as its only a 50freezeout!!

RoadSweeper

if your going for 1st i shove tbh.

Although the 5d turn is good, the king on the river is sick!

insafehands

I don't really understand this, Nicky.

Even if Villain 1 has one-pair, you're behind, so I don't see how a second player calling should affect the situation, even if he has a set, given your holding.

A second player calling makes this an easy call for me.

Edit: Running this through card player, guessing the opposition's holdings:

Hero: A4d 33%
A: AKo 5%
B: 33 60%

Hero: A4 36%
A: 22 4.5%
B: 33 60%

So according to that, the worst you'll be is 33%, giving you neutral odds to call.

Edit again:

If one of the Villains is on a diamond draw too, you're 28.5%.

mrflash

shove it, you gotta go for it

BobSloane

I get it all-in here I think. Your draw is too good. If you just had the bare flush draw yeah i'd prob let it go. In 4 mins you will have either 10bbs or a dominating stack of ~40k. I'd take the gamble here rather than be pushing with marginal holdings(and getting called if this is in limerick) in four minutes time. You even have the golden 5d out to re-draw against the full house!

edit : sorry thought it was 2d3d on flop. Stupid blurred vision. i still get it in though

phantom_lord

gamble gamble.

Moneymaker

Depends on what you want. If you want 1st, I think you have to go for it with a draw that big. Early on, i'd fold and wait for a better spot, but at this point, you have to gamble if you want to win. Ship it in.

Jesus Wept

You are better off going againest them both imo, if you are going to put your chips in, even more so if you think the cold caller has a set.

I'm not saying you should go for it, but if you are, with your hand, it's probably best to go againest both of them, you have the nut flushdraw, the gutshot most likely gives you the best hand, perhaps your ace is live.

Hectorjelly

I dont really like the advice so far, you definitely do not want to be up against a set, for a few reasons.. The problem is the guy with a set has more money which is still left to go in, and you lose equity on all of it. Its probably really close, my advice would be to push because its probably only slightly -ev or neutral against a pair and a set, but you read wont always be right. (do you think he would play Kd Qd any differently?)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2864848
pokenum -h ad 4d - kc qs - 2c 2s -- kd 3d 2h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Kd 3d 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad 4d 316 34.99 587 65.01 0 0.00 0.350
Qs Kc 19 2.10 884 97.90 0 0.00 0.021
2s 2c 568 62.90 335 37.10 0 0.00 0.629

NickyOD

Yeah, brutal spot to be priced in against the set here. The guy who was UTG basically screwed me over. I don't think he had anything. I could be wrong but as far as I remember he mucked his hand. If I'm heads up with the other guy I'm pretty sure I only lose the 2K here.

I told him immediately he had 33 and was sucking me in. I was ready to fold but once I saw what the pot was laying me I just groaned and stuck it in. Horrible position to be in really especially when I know I would have been capable of folding bottom set here.

Sick Flop.

HJ the Kd is on the flop and I'm certain he can't have KQ. This guy is ultra conservative and would probably fold it here with me behind him and I know I didn't say it in the OP but he basically called UTGs RRAI quite quickly so it's defintely a set. I had no doubt about it.

If UTg has TP I'm 34% to win the hand and I'm getting much better odds than that so I have to gamble here.

fuzzbox

NickyOD wrote:

If UTg has TP I'm 34% to win the hand and I'm getting much better odds than that so I have to gamble here.

If UTG has TP then you are much closer to 50% to win the hand with nut flush draw and gutshot and overcard.

NickyOD

fuzzbox wrote:

If UTG has TP then you are much closer to 50% to win the hand with nut flush draw and gutshot and overcard.

Did you read all of the post. I'm up against a set also.

CaptainNemo

Great spot to stick it in and try to triple up and go for 1st. Also a great spot to fold and wait for a chance to get your money in good. A matter of taste probably. In a small money tournament I'll stick it in here every time.

ozpoker

This is a very interesting decision and one that is worthy of some structured analysis. Before doing the analysis, my initial judgment would be to call on the flop and call a bet on the turn if the draw is missed. Also, I suspect jamming the flop is a bad play. Here's my shot at an EV analysis:

Assumptions:
1) Hero is against a set 100% of the time
2) All in villain has top pair, random kicker
3) Hero has no folding equity on flop or turn if he jams
4) Set villain will jam all turn cards
5) Hero folds if turn pairs board

Possible lines for the hero are:
A) Fold flop
Jam flop
C) Call flop, reassess on turn

If hero folds on the flop he has his remaining stack, so:
EV(fold) = 12500

The reason jamming is potentially bad is because we have no folding equity and we lose equity on every chip that goes into the pot on the flop. Even so, it dominates folding:

EV(jam) = p(win)(pot) = .35(45,800) = 16730

Calling the flop makes things really interesting. One of 3 things happens:

1) the board pairs and hero folds
2) the draw hits and hero calls
3) the draw misses and the board doesn’t pair and
3F) hero folds
3C) hero calls

Let's look at case 3 first. This is another decision, so we need to know what we will do in this case.

EV(3F) is just the hero’s stack after calling the flop and folding, or 5700.

EV(3C) = p(river win)EV(river win) + p(river lose)EV(river lose) = ((11/43)*47800) + 0 = 12228

Since 12228 is greater than 5700, calling dominates folding, so EV(3) = EV(3C) = 12228

Similarly, EV(1) is the stack after calling the flop, 5700

EV(2) = p(river win)EV(river win) + p(river lose)EV(river lose) = ((34/43) * 47800) + 0 = 37795

Therefore:

EV(call) = p(1)EV(1) + p(2)EV(2) + p(3)EV(3)= ((6/44) * 5700) + ((11/44) * 37795) + ((27/44) * 12228) = 17730

This shows a small (but noticeable) 6% EV gain from calling over jamming (which isn't as big as I initially thought it would be), given our assumptions.

-Oz-

ocallagh

I prefer to c/raise all in on that flop given the stacks. On the flop if the action goes bet/raise then I might fold. As played I probably call

BobSloane

How did this one turn out Nicky?

NickyOD

BobSloane wrote:

How did this one turn out Nicky?

I missed.

BobSloane

ul. what will u do next time?

phantom_lord

no one ever posts these hands when they hit!

BobSloane

phantom_lord wrote:

no one ever posts these hands when they hit!

lol i know. The whole forum is a thinly veiled bad beat/cooler sticky

NickyOD

phantom_lord wrote:

no one ever posts these hands when they hit!

I don't think that's true at all.

RoundTower

Nicky do you ever post hands where you don't know exactly what all the other players have? With your read shoving can never be right, you can just add up the numbers to see if you should call or fold so the hand isn't interesting. If I didn't have this strange read I would go all in.

dacman

BobSloane wrote:

lol i know. The whole forum is a thinly veiled bad beat/cooler sticky

Yeah I wish people would talk more about Value betting, Button aggression re raising the serial raiser playing crap hands when in position etc etc. every post i read is the same these days...Ok rant over:D

NickyOD

RoundTower wrote:

Nicky do you ever post hands where you don't know exactly what all the other players have? With your read shoving can never be right, you can just add up the numbers to see if you should call or fold so the hand isn't interesting. If I didn't have this strange read I would go all in.

This guy had played 2 hands in the whole tournament up tot hat point. One that I'd seen was KQ where he limped in from mid position and bet..3 bet a KQ8 flop and turned over KQ. The other was where he flopped a set of 7s on a 789 flop and lead into me when I had raised preflop with AT. I folded on the flop and he showed. He is ultra conservative and I expect him to fold TP or a draw to a reraise so when he instacalls he can only have 22 or 33 on this flop, and I do post hand where I don't know what the guy has or where I fold and never know so get off my case. I was wrong about UTG in this hand. He had nothing.

BobSloane

I found this hand interesting. It was a very 50/50 situation as to what to do due to the blinds and stack sizes etc. That was a genuine question earlier nicky. What would you do next time given the same scenario with blinds about to go up plus your read?

NickyOD

BobSloane wrote:

I found this hand interesting. It was a very 50/50 situation as to what to do due to the blinds and stack sizes etc. That was a genuine question earlier nicky. What would you do next time given the same scenario with blinds about to go up plus your read?

Sorry, yeah, I would still shove. I mean mathematically I'm bound to the shove regardless of my read. At the time I just wasn't sure what my % chance of winning the hand was. I was worried it might be under 30% but given the difference having a big stack would make in this kind of tournament I might even decide to take a slightly -EV gamble because winning it means going to the final table as a clear chip leader.

ozpoker

NickyOD wrote:

Sorry, yeah, I would still shove. I mean mathematically I'm bound to the shove regardless of my read. At the time I just wasn't sure what my % chance of winning the hand was. I was worried it might be under 30% but given the difference having a big stack would make in this kind of tournament I might even decide to take a slightly -EV gamble because winning it means going to the final table as a clear chip leader.

Why are you bound to shove "mathematically"? I thought my analysis showed a measurable improvement by calling the flop, given your read. The main potential benefit from jamming here is to pick up any folding equity you might have, but if your judgment is that you don't have any (and against a set, you don't), then calling is a better play in case the board pairs on the turn.

I don't mean to whine, but I put together a pretty good analysis of the situation and everyone just ignored it. If my assumptions or approach is bad, fine, let's discuss. But I think I made a fairly good case for calling.

See you all at the tables,

-Oz-

RoundTower

if you put him on a set why would you ever ever shove? You can call and safely fold a pair on the turn, while if you do hit a diamond or a straight he won't fold (or if he does fold that is even better for you).

edit: didn't see ozpoker said exactly this already but it should be obvious to anyone.

Chucky the tree

How can we call the flop then fold too a turn bet?!

That leaves us with a 5k stack and blinds 400/800, that seems like the worst opition of the lot.

ozpoker

Chucky the tree wrote:

How can we call the flop then fold too a turn bet?!

That leaves us with a 5k stack and blinds 400/800, that seems like the worst opition of the lot.

It's the +EV play when you're drawing dead. Remember, we're only going on the read of the OP as we weren't at the table. If there's any uncertainty in the read (and usually there will be), we will be harder pressed to fold on the turn. But we don't have to be drawing dead too often to still make folding correct on a paired board (when all we have is A high and a draw).

-Oz-

Chucky the tree

On the flop were 34% to win the hands, so getting all the chips in then has to be the correct move?

ozpoker

Chucky the tree wrote:

On the flop were 34% to win the hands, so getting all the chips in then has to be the correct move?

But you're only getting 34% of all chips that go into the pot above what the all in player has. Once he's stopped matching the set villain's chips, you are losing equity with every chip you put in. Is it not clear that your equity needs to be higher than 50% for additional chips that are going into the pot for raising to be the right play?

-Oz-

JoeB-

ozpoker wrote:

....
Let's look at case 3 first. This is another decision, so we need to know what we will do in this case.

EV(3F) is just the hero’s stack after calling the flop and folding, or 5700.

EV(3C) = p(river win)EV(river win) + p(river lose)EV(river lose) = ((11/43)*47800) + 0 = 12228

I loved this analysis.. I have a question though about this ((11/43)*47800 .

I understand where the 43 comes from, we know our 2 cards, Set Villian has two known cards, ALL IN villian has a K, board has 4 cards = 9 cards so 43 left in deck. It's the 11 I'm wondering about... there are nine flush cards for us to hit and four 5s, one of which is counted already in the flush cards.. so we have 12 outs instead of 11.

Am I wrong? (could easily be as the analysis is hard enough to understand!)

Cheers
Joe

ozpoker

JoeBallantine wrote:

I loved this analysis.. I have a question though about this ((11/43)*47800 .

I understand where the 43 comes from, we know our 2 cards, Set Villian has two known cards, ALL IN villian has a K, board has 4 cards = 9 cards so 43 left in deck. It's the 11 I'm wondering about... there are nine flush cards for us to hit and four 5s, one of which is counted already in the flush cards.. so we have 12 outs instead of 11.

One of the flush cards pairs the board and isn't an out for the hero.

JoeBallantine wrote:

Am I wrong? (could easily be as the analysis is hard enough to understand!)

It's always hard in these circumstances to walk th line between brevity and completeness. I could easily take up twice as much room explaining the derivation of every term, but then no one would read it instead of just 1.

-Oz-

JoeB-

Aha... I get you, very good.

I also thought of the situation where the 2d falls on the turn... although the board has paired and gives one guy Quads or a full house we'd also have a redraw to a straight flush!!!!

I know this would complicate things hugely... and possibly the 2d is already gone because there is only one 2 left..

Great way to analyse the situation by the way, i'm well impressed.

I have Sklanskys Theory of Poker, is this method described in that book?

Cheers
Joe

ozpoker

JoeBallantine wrote:

Great way to analyse the situation by the way, i'm well impressed.

Thanks. I wish I could say I invented it, but I stand on the shoulders of giants.

JoeBallantine wrote:

I have Sklanskys Theory of Poker, is this method described in that book?

Not really. I've been hanging with poker nerds who've done this sort of thing for a while (some who've gone on to fame and fortune). The procedure was recently popularized by Harrington in Harrington On Hold'em.

And for those that don't think this sort of exercise has any value because you can't do it at the table: the real value of going through these analyses is to use your judgment to "guess" what the right answer to a situation should be. Then do the analysis and use it as a feedback mechanism to tune your poker "intuition". This is a fantastic way to ramp up your mad poker skillz.

in this particular case, I thought that calling the flop would be a clear correct choice. I was surprised that it was only a little better than jamming. That's what I learned from this exercise.

-Oz-

Chucky the tree

ozpoker wrote:

in this particular case, I thought that calling the flop would be a clear correct choice. I was surprised that it was only a little better than jamming. That's what I learned from this exercise.

-Oz-

I see you were right about losing equity once we call the 8.8k shov.

Butrom a pure a basic maths point of view calling is correct. But as poker players we shouldnt basic our decisions on just maths. The size of the blinds and our expectations from the tournament must play a big part in deciding what the correct play is.

As Nicky said taking a small -EV gamble in this situation could end up being a +ev in the long run, if that makes sense.

ozpoker

Chucky the tree wrote:

As Nicky said taking a small -EV gamble in this situation could end up being a +ev in the long run, if that makes sense.

Actually it doesn't, but to each his own.

-Oz-

NickyOD

Ozpoker and RoundTower. I think you have misunderstand the OP.

when I said I have 12,500 left I meant that is my total stack after my initial 2000 bet.

Surely neither of you are actually considering calling off another 6,800 and then folding on the turn?

JoeB-

Well, I have often wondered about those things...

If a particular play has +EV... it can still be a winning or a losing play in each individual situation, if it wins for you in small tournaments and loses for you when you've made the final table of the World Series then it's a losing play (in your experience) overall. The maths can't reflect this. But that doesn't devalue the maths, there is simply no way to account for luck in poker.

Luck is the most important factor in the short term, skill plays an important part when you consider your entire poker playing life.

It may also be possible to make losing plays in order to build an image, this may result in more profits overall...

In the EV analysis there must be some chance that the Set Villian would fold to an ALL IN bet by you if the flush card falls, I'm not sure if he'd be getting the pot odds to chase but even if he was there's no guarantee he'll call the bet... so maybe the true EV is slightly lower...

I am a big fan of Harringtons books, he's definitely a poker genius... I have read his first book and bought the second only three or four weeks ago, after a big tourney 2nd place just 3 days ago I have ordered his 1st book, his 2nd book definitely helped me get the second place so he deserves it!

Cheers
Joe

JoeB-

NickyOD wrote:

Ozpoker and RoundTower. I think you have misunderstand the OP.

when I said I have 12,500 left I meant that is my total stack after my initial 2000 bet.

Surely neither of you are actually considering calling off another 6,800 and then folding on the turn?

I think they are considering exactly that.. but only if one of 6 scare cards fall... to make the guy quads or a full house. After all if you are certain he has a set now what is the point in not folding if he hits his card?

Chucky the tree

NickyOD wrote:

Ozpoker and RoundTower. I think you have misunderstand the OP.

when I said I have 12,500 left I meant that is my total stack after my initial 2000 bet.

Surely neither of you are actually considering calling off another 6,800 and then folding on the turn?

Of course, the maths says its the right thing to do...

RoundTower

yes of course that is what I mean. If he has a set 100% you can fold the turn even for 1000 chips more if the board pairs. Throwing the 6000 chips away would be so wasteful. How is this not obvious to everyone else?

Chucky the tree

RoundTower wrote:

yes of course that is what I mean. If he has a set 100% you can fold the turn even for 1000 chips more if the board pairs. Throwing the 6000 chips away would be so wasteful. How is this not obvious to everyone else?

Well if the board pairs its fine. But what if Jc lands? Fold when he puts us all in?

NickyOD

Chucky the tree wrote:

Well if the board pairs its fine. But what if Jc lands? Fold when he puts us all in?

No you still call because you're priced in on turn, but Oz and RT are right. The reason calling and sticking the rest in on the turn is better is because you can fold on the turn when the board pairs and you're down to a one outer.