TP on the flop with low effective stacks

Brayruit

Live event (SE), tables recently been reorganised, so neither player has seen much of the other's play.

Blinds 400/800
15 players remain, average stack about 15k

Villain (hate that term, but anyway) recently lost a fairly big pot that set him back to about 8k when he pushed with AK and was called by and lost to a smaller stack.

I have been very TAG as usual (emphasis on the T ) and have about 13k.

Everyone folds except villain in MP who calls the BB of 800.
I'm in BB with J6o and I check.

Pot is now 2k.

Flop comes J94r

I check, Villain bets 2,200

What do I assume is villain's range here?
What do I think he thinks is my range (EDIT: if I call / if I shove)? Is that question relevant against a player I don't know in an Aquarium tournament?
Where to from here?

Chucky the tree

Your range is anything so is his. When you check to him he probaly betting with anything.

I would of lead the flop, why did you check it?

I dont play donkaments cos i am useless at them but i'd just go over the top and put him all in now.

phantom_lord

I'd call and call his turn shove. he could have air, worse pair, anything. I'd probably just shove pf tho.

Brayruit

Chucky the tree wrote:

Your range is anything...

Sorry of course it is... What I meant is (a) what range he will put me on if I call (b) what range he will put me on if I shove

Brayruit

Chucky the tree wrote:

I would of lead the flop, why did you check it?

I was pretty confident he would bet if I checked...

Captain Tom

phantom_lord wrote:

I'd probably just shove pf tho.

i dont think thats a good idea. a player who's bad enough to limp in the c/o with around 10'bbs will call off when you shove in this spot with a rather wide range of hands. lollivedonkaments.

as regards the hand, i think shoving flop is ok this shallow as is call/call turn. just dont fold.

m83

Brayruit wrote:

What do I assume is villain's range here?

Pretty much anything after you checked and he has position over you.

Brayruit wrote:

What do I think he thinks is my range (EDIT: if I call / if I shove)?

Well you only completed the BB so you could have any of the flop when you call. A shove might give you credit for the Jack and see him fold. I'd call and check-call a shove on the turn.

Brayruit wrote:

Is that question relevant against a player I don't know in an Aquarium tournament?

Stop asking questions and ship it already!

Brayruit wrote:

Where to from here?

Errr.. move up levels ?!?

phantom_lord

Captain Tom wrote:

i dont think thats a good idea. a player who's bad enough to limp in the c/o with around 10'bbs will call off when you shove in this spot with a rather wide range of hands. lollivedonkaments.

yeah true, oops, for some reason i thought he was the sb anyway. nevermind.



although unlimited hold them does reward bold, aggressive play, you want to put an opponent to a decision for all his chips and his tounament life!

Brayruit

If I raise / shove at this stage - why am I doing it? Can I expect to be called by a worse hand often enough?

Chucky the tree

Brayruit wrote:

If I raise / shove at this stage - why am I doing it? Can I expect to be called by a worse hand often enough?

Because your getting the chips in anyway you might as well do it now. He'calling with any Jack, 9 or 4 and straight draw.

He's got 6BB's left, there really is very little he's going too fold here.

Brayruit

Chucky the tree wrote:

...there really is very little he's going too fold here.

Isn't that a good reason to call rather than raise? Then I can potentially reconsider on the EDIT flop turn. I don't think he's on a straight draw.

Brayruit

bump...

just one bump to see if I can get a bit more on this one.... thx

BigCityBanker

raise preflop.

Im not a lover of shoving this as your really not gonna get called by worse. He has bet this pretty strongly (an overbet) and this to me stinks of something wrotten. I think small pp's are a large part of his range as are overcards. He may be drawing to 2 outs so i probably slow down here and check call the turn also as it will ensure you will extract maximum valoo from your hand. It will be squeaky bum time for you though if the next two streets come with overcards. Of course this is all elementry if he is already ahead.

anyway - you shouldnt be in this position as you should be raising preflop here alot of the time (exception being if you think Villian has limped a big pair looking for action).

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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Wombatman

Wonder what long term EV of raising pf in this spot is? Would depend on your image and table of course. Difference between pf push and pf raise me thinks.

Me calling down here.

cardshark202

If you are raising here, anything other than shoving would be terrible. I would call down here.

Chucky the tree

Brayruit wrote:

Isn't that a good reason to call rather than raise? Then I can potentially reconsider on the flop. I don't think he's on a straight draw.

On the turn you mean? If you call no matter what comes on the turn there is a strong chance he is shoving no matter what the card is. If the turn comes an Ace, K or Q we are left with a harder decision to make.

BigCityBanker wrote:

raise preflop.

Im not a lover of shoving this as your really not gonna get called by worse. He has bet this pretty strongly (an overbet) and this to me stinks of something wrotten. I think small pp's are a large part of his range as are overcards. He may be drawing to 2 outs so i probably slow down here and check call the turn also as it will ensure you will extract maximum valoo from your hand. It will be squeaky bum time for you though if the next two streets come with overcards. Of course this is all elementry if he is already ahead.

I dont think the over-bet looks strong, looks the opposite to me. If i flopped a strong hand here the last i want too do is over bet the pot and scare my opponent away, i want him to call me down to the river.

If we flat call flop there is 6.4k in the pot with villan having 5k left, we aint gonna get the chance to check/call till showdown.

LuckyLloyd wrote:

No it isn't. He is not limping ATC. His range might be huge, but we don't have the info to know that.

All we know is that he pushed pre - flop with AK. How we can deduce from that anything regarding his hand - ranges or his abillty to bet this flop with air is beyond me.

Our hand is really bad and should be behind any range that players voluntarily decide to put money in the pot with.

I think our hand could easily be ahead here. Hands we are behind most would expect to be foleded or shoved pre-flop.

Brayruit

Chucky the tree wrote:

On the turn you mean?

No I mean on the flop... I think I'm folding if an A or K comes on the turn.

cardshark202 wrote:

If you are raising here, anything other than shoving would be terrible.

I agree

I'm surprised at the suggestion of raising or even shoving preflop... I did not consider it and would not. My guess is that the EV would be negative assuming there is a fairly large proportion of the villain's limping range that would see him calling a raise / all in with such a low stack.

LuckyLloyd wrote:

At the start of this hand you should just have an "I surrender" mentallity unless you flop two pair or better. IMO of course.

I think that that is the right attitude in the big blind with garbage... even against a strange looking limp.

So, my conclusion based on sifting through the comments is that my best guess at his range is something like A9 or less, 77 or less, K7+, Q8+, J9+. Surely he raises bigger hands than this.

Before he bets I am ahead of everything except a J with 9-K. After he bets, the hands that I am behind are a bit more likely. I'm going to make a stab that I am ahead 67% of the time.

If he calls a shove, I think I am ahead only 25% of the time. (I appreciate that these are just guessy numbers, but I don't have access to pokerstove or similar right now)

So that means that he is calling a shove 50% of the time, and winning 37.5% (assuming equal and opposite suck out possibilities)

The EV can be worked out as:
50% x I take it down for +4,200
37.5% x I drop -7k
12.5% x I win 10k
= 725
(remembering that I made up some of the probabilities... but there will always be some guesswork anyway)

which is not huge....

Calling the flop bet and reassessing seems better. Surrendering is probably best.

Chucky the tree

Brayruit wrote:

No I mean on the flop... I think I'm folding if an A or K comes on the turn.

Call the flop bet instead of raising so you can reconsider on the flop?

Brayruit

Chucky the tree wrote:

Call the flop bet instead of raising so you can reconsider on the flop?

!sorry! !sorry! I misunderstood that I had said it wrong in the first place...

Brayruit

conclusion fwiw... (as in most cases what actually happened is not really relevant to the analysis)

I pushed.

He called and turned over JK which held up.

Thx for feedback.... I think I should have called and reassessed but I would have ended up all in anyway.

I am very interested in the suggestion that I should have raised pf (even that shallow!) and can see that it would certainly have been optimal in this case.

sikes

pushing for 13k preflop is prob -EV, but when the pot is 1/5 of your stack, pushing over limpers with ATC is generally not bad, especially when there are multiple limpers. when theres just the one it becomes a little tricker, but usually still profitable, unless his is some sort of sheriff thing, if thats what they call them. You dont want to do it very often either.

i dont think raising a normal amount is ever a good idea here, your hand is too weak and you are too shallow. You wont take it down enough preflop, so the cbet on the flop is going to set you in, and when called you will be drawing pretty thin.

EDIT: just seen we have 8k effective stacks, not 13k, he needs to fold about 65% of the time for it to be +ev but he could be on tilt.