Oil supplies 'face more pressure'

silverharp

it seems Peak oil could hit around 2010. When is the gov. going to pull it's finger out on this one. Can the average commuter driving into Dublin deal with 2-3Euros per ltr? what will the tourist industry do when the cheapest flight to Ireland 2 or 3 times the present cost?



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6283992.stm

Oil supplies 'face more pressure'


Demand for oil is unlikely to flag, says the IEA
World oil demand will rise faster than expected, while supplies will remain tight, the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report has warned.

The IEA predicted demand would rise by an average 2.2% a year between 2007 and 2012, up from previous estimates of 2%.

It added that geo-political tensions and a lack of spare capacity in Opec production would also limit supplies.

Brent crude rose 16 cents to an eleven-month high of $75.78 a barrel although US light crude fell slightly.

It closed down 62 cents at $72.19.

'Uncertainty'

One analyst said a range of persistent economic and political factors meant that prices were on an upward curve.

"The oil price is at very high levels for good reasons," said David Dugdale, from MFC Global Investment Management.

"With Opec continuing to withhold oil from the market, the general picture remains one of tightness, with kidnappings in Nigeria, the upcoming hurricane season and ongoing geopolitical concerns all adding to uncertainty over the summer."

In its report, the IEA argued that biofuel production would hit 1.8 million barrels by 2012, more than double 2006 levels.

However, while supplies of the green fuel are set to surge, it is likely to remain marginal with just a 2% slice of the overall energy market.

It also echoed warnings issued in an Organisation for Economic Development report that rapidly growing biofuel market will increase the price of certain feedstocks - such as sugar and corn - over the coming year.

Demand pressure

But with forecasts predicting world economic growth to increase by 4.5% a year, the report argued that oil demand could soar to 95.8m barrels a day (bpd) in 2012 from 81.6m now.

At the same time it predicted production from oil cartel Opec would fall, slipping by 2m bpd in 2009, while it also cut supply forecasts for non-Opec countries by 800,000 bpd.

It added that other factors including rising refinery costs, engineer shortages and strong demand in other energy markets would also put pressure on oil supplies.

"Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010," the IEA said.

"It is possible that the supply crunch could be deferred - but not by much."

gbh

If we had a progressive forward thinking even visionary government then we wouldn't have a problem. Unfortunately when you keep voting FF back into power you are not going to get that. One major side effect of the rise in house prices is that people have to live further and further out the country to afford a house. This means much longer commuting distances and increased use of petrol. Now this problem has been flagged for years, but no-one in government has been too bothered. Along with this, objections to city centre high rise apartment blocks should not be allowed as the more people who can walk to work or use public transport the better. Again, I doubt the government will take heed of this. So blame the government and blame those usually middle aged people who object to high rise apartments for the problem in this country about pressure on oil. Also cheap flights abroad consume proportionally more fuel by less people. So therefore why does everyone continue to go on these flights. I know people who are worried about the end of oil and peak oil and yet go on short hop weekends away to Europe every month. You can't have it both ways, and that's not my opinion, it's a fact. To be honest everyone has to stop acting immature on this issue, or bury their heads in the sand or pass the buck. It will be a national team effort lead by Bertie Ahearn and the government that will save us from the implications of peak oil, or else the whole country will go down the tube.

silverharp

gbh wrote:

If we had a progressive forward thinking even visionary government then we wouldn't have a problem. Unfortunately when you keep voting FF back into power you are not going to get that.

Although one can blame FF for this maybe more so on spatial layout I don’t think any other gov. would have done anything different. During the election I spoke to the FG people and all they seemed to say was more interconnectors to the UK which maybe useful but the UK will be as screwed as every where else so why depend on them. People have made bad choices as well for example by moving to Wexford and commuting to Dublin by car. Frankly very few people “get it” and it will probably take a crises to focus everyone’s mind.

gbh

silverharp wrote:

it seems Peak oil could hit around 2010. When is the gov. going to pull it's finger out on this one. Can the average commuter driving into Dublin deal with 2-3Euros per ltr? what will the tourist industry do when the cheapest flight to Ireland 2 or 3 times the present cost?

It's a reality that if you want to curb people's demand for something you have to raise the price. Whether they can deal with it or not is one thing, but the market will dictate the price at the end of the day.

But what the government could do today or tomorrow are the following:

Stop the expanding commuter belts and change the planning regulations. All new buildings within a certain radius of the city should be a minimum of 5 stories high, like Paris for example. If developers want to build 20, 30, or 50 story apartment buildings in the centre of town they should be allowed to. Its time we matured about this and stop cowtowing to residents groups etc many of whom wont be around when peak oil hits. If the government has to be unpopular so be it. But progressive proactive governments in Scandanavia are taking the bull by the horns. Its time our one did as well, and not with a few token gestures.