JackPot "Sit and Gos"

Primewise

Has anyone put much time into trying to win “Jackpot Sit n Gos?”

I recon a lot of people have tried playing them and given up after a few days, or even just a few games, realising how difficult it is.

Just to quantify how hard it is to win one, and the return on investment, I just did a few quick (very simplistic) calculations below. Has anyone any other method of calculating that would be more realistic?


VC Poker (ipoker network) offer the $50 (+$9 entry fee) Sit n Go with 6 Players. If you win 6 in a row you win $250,000.

The normal entry fee for a $50 6player tourney is $5, so effectively you are paying $4 extra for the chance to win the jackpot.

Take two people of different skill levels and look at their chances of winning:

1) An average player with an equal chance of coming first (i.e. 1 in 6 chance). The chance of coming 1st six times in a row is (1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6) = 1 in 46,500.

If you pay $4 46,500 times you’re investment is $186,624. This is too great an investment considering the fact that only winning 1 in 6 tourneys doesn’t give you +EV hourly rate anyway.

2) A very good Sit n Go player with a chance of coming first 2 out of 6 times Does anyone else think this is too optimistic? Consider that the opponents will at times will be desperate to come 1st, and maybe they are the gambling type, therefore offering opportunities to take the win. Based on this figure, the chance of coming 1st six times in a row is then roughly (1/3)x(1/3)x(1/3)x(1/3)x(1/3)x(1/3) = 1 in 730.

If you pay $4 730 times you’re investment is $2920. This appears like a very good investment for a good player to make for a chance at the jackpot. This leads me to think that either:
a) A 2 in 6 chance of winning each tournament is too optimistic.
b) The Poker Network realises this is in fact a very good chance they are offering good players, but they don’t mind because the majority of the players at these tables are not good enough to win and therefore contribute sufficient amounts of money to fund the jackpot.

Comments welcome.


p.s. The smaller stakes Sit n Go jackpots only require you to win 5 times in a row. I guess the 6 win requirement at higher stakes is because they expect the range of skill level to be much wider, therefore they need to make it more difficult for the good player.

Mr.Plough

had a go at them but found the play way too tight until it hit crapshoot status.

also the 5 in a row ones are 10 seaters

ArmaniJeanss

I play quite a lot of the $5 MAUIs when I'm either a) drunk or b) winding down from a session of 'real' poker.

They are very easy to turn a profit in (despite the 20% rake I'm running at over 40% ROI from ~200 games), and the standard is dreadful (after midnight at weekends anyway).

As for winning the Jackpot, I havn't come close (2 in a row being my best) but I'm deluded enough to believe its just a matter of time.

dacman

Coming in the top 2 for 6 in a row is tough but very possible. You have a very slim chance of winning the jackpot however. The standard is poor enough if you ask me. So much min raising preflop and under betting the pot post flop makes it easy to spot weakness and when you get the big hands you generally get good action

Primewise

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

I play quite a lot of the $5 MAUIs when I'm either a) drunk or b) winding down from a session of 'real' poker.

They are very easy to turn a profit in (despite the 20% rake I'm running at over 40% ROI from ~200 games), and the standard is dreadful (after midnight at weekends anyway).

As for winning the Jackpot, I havn't come close (2 in a row being my best) but I'm deluded enough to believe its just a matter of time.

I wonder is just as easy to turn a profit at the $50 jackpot tables?

The standard at the regular $50 tables is a big leap up from the $30 tables I have found.
I wonder if that carries over to the jackpot table...

aubreym

usually play the $20 rio ones. Best i've got is the 6 x 1st or 2nd place bonus for $200, which included 4 x 1st places in a row. The next sitting, i had a 4:1 chip lead and suffered 4 bad-beats in a row, including loosing AA & KK all-in to 2 undercards each time filling 2 pair

ah well, keep trying i suppose :cool:

dacman

Primewise wrote:

I wonder is just as easy to turn a profit at the $50 jackpot tables? QUOTE]

YES. I dont find much difference between the levels.

Samba

I had a 28k bb on the Rio Tables, on my sixth tourney HU I got it all in with Q10 v 910 on a 10 high flop..... he hit a runner runner straight and then typed lol, i replied, lol 28k bad beat.

To be honest had I won it and ipoker had gone through the hands, some of it would have looked so bad in terms of collusion, I had guys bluffing off 75% of their stack then folding to an all in, guys calling all ins with Q7o etc, I just got lucky in terms of who was at my table and good hands held up.

It's an impossibility to win these jackpots without running gut and getting the right players at your table.

You need to be ultra aggressive due to the crap shoot nature of the games, i've yet to go back and give them another go, rake is just to high and the payout structures are too flat. With 3 places being paid 3rd place makes a whopping $1 profit. That's some ROI.

Chucky the tree

they must be easy enough to fix. Just get 6 of your mates and job done.

Hoki

it would have to be 6 of your mates from across ireland as i doubt they will payout when they see 6 players playing in an internet cafe for 6 games in a row !

murph01

Played the fort knox jackpot sit n go for a couple of months or so and got very close to doing it.
Out of 7 games i won 5 and was 2nd in 2 at one stage and picked up the $750 consolation prize,at this stage the 6 ina row jackpot was 90 grand so was a bit sick to only get the $750 after coming so close.

Ive won four ina row now on a couple of occasions but when you get to that stage your mind set changes a lot and you tighten up big time,before you know its a crapshot and its down to the poker gods.
The fact that you only start with a 1000 chips turns it into a crapshot at level 4.

Obviously to do the six ina row you need as much luck as getting the lotto up imo.
Since paddy power went to ipoker it has not been done at the 50+9 jackpot level.Although there has been two separate claims for winning it but these claims were rejected-somebody probably came up with the bright idea of getting a few friends involved.Id say for this type of money every claim is investagated very closely

Chucky the tree

Hoki wrote:

it would have to be 6 of your mates from across ireland as i doubt they will payout when they see 6 players playing in an internet cafe for 6 games in a row !

Your right, about 30 people will do.



Go too 2+2 or somthing and round up a few people so the playrs are in different countires.

ianmc38

I won 4 $50s in a row a few weeks ago. The standard is unbelievably bad.

Shortstack

Jackpot is currently $260,000 so +EV if you can fit in enough games.

dacman

Do u know if this jackpot has ever been won mike