30th Dail - How long before the wheels come off?

DublinWriter

I think the word 'Bodge' doesn't even begin to describe it and personally I'd give the 30th Dail eighteen months at maximum.

To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there are many known knowns and many known unknowns.

Known knowns include internal party frictions in both FF and the Greens over the current sweatheart deals. FF, a party long happy to have the monikers 'the builders friend' and 'the farmers friend' will soon find themselves at odds with Green Party policy.

Note how Bertie had to create three more Ministerial 'Mercs and Perks' positions to quiet dissention in even his own party.

But that's not the biggest potential destabilising factor. Unknown knowns will be how the three independents that Bertie secured the support of will act: Michael Lowery, Finian McGrath (who stood on an anti-Shannon extradition ticket) and Jackie Healy-Rae.

And then there's the PDs, they haven't gone away you know.

...and I haven't even gotten onto the touchy subject of Beverly Cooper Flynn yet.

The phrase 'Dolly Mixture' doesn't even begin do it justice. The current Dail is too broad a church to be viable in the future. There are too many cross-party vested interests, there are too many egos, there are too many potential speed bumps in the road ahead in the shape of further tribunal revelations that threaten to knock the wheels of this current donkey and cart of a Dail.

Victor Meldrew

DublinWriter wrote:

I think the word 'Bodge' doesn't even begin to describe it and personally I'd give the 30th Dail eighteen months at maximum.

I'm just glad Paddy power paid out on FF/PD/Green (12-1, only a tenner down but still... )

The greens may well be forced to take their ball and go home, but that still leaves PDs and the FF gene pool.

There's a whif of '82 in the air allright though. and that may suit bertie / ff to regain the seats they lost. I don't see FG and labour winning sufficent seats in another election. even if bertie is declared bent by the tribunal and the economy heads south, the cretins will still vote FF " for the sake of the economy"

marco_polo

Victor Meldrew wrote:

the cretins will still vote FF " for the sake of the economy"

I'd love to be that self righteous :rolleyes: . How long do you gaze into your own eyes in the mirror every morning?

Liam Byrne

marco_polo wrote:

I'd love to be that self righteous :rolleyes: . How long do you gaze into your own eyes in the mirror every morning?

A little too selective with the quote, Marco ? The full quote started at "Even if", and in that context was fully valid.....IF Bertie has stuff to be found out, and that is found out by the tribunal, you would need to be a cretin to stick with FF....

And that's not me being biased - it's being anti-corruption; personally I can't see how anyone voted FF this time, but it's a democracy.....but if Bertie has conned us and FF stood by him, it'll be a different story.....

As to the OP and original question - I'd like to give it a year, but maybe that's just wishful thinking......with the level of leeway that the Greens gave FF before they even went into office, I can see them being steamrolled into agreeing with every FF whim and letting FF away with the usual money-wasting and stroke-pulling....

CerebralCortex

marco_polo wrote:

I'd love to be that self righteous :rolleyes: . How long do you gaze into your own eyes in the mirror every morning?

You voted Fianna Fail.

marco_polo

CerebralCortex wrote:

You voted Fianna Fail.

I voted for FG this time around, but I'm not so smug as to call all FF voters cretins. Not nescessarly disagreeing with Victors points just the tone of the argument TBH.

jhegarty

The green have given up everything they stand for , so they won't be a problem... harney won't rock the boat... so 5 years i think :mad:

Victor Meldrew

marco_polo wrote:

I voted for FG this time around, but I'm not so smug as to call all FF voters cretins. Not nescessarly disagreeing with Victors points just the tone of the argument TBH.

If Bertie follows CJ and is found to be a corrupt and kept man then there will be a section of the electorate who will still forgive him.

If the economy heads south, another section of the electorate will see the economy heading south as something that only FF can fix (again, a bit delusional, if FF watched the slump unfold and did nothing...)

Now, in the above scenario, your leader and his party are corrupt and incompetent and you still vote for them... Even if you find FG and labour offputting, at least you should give FF a kick.....

My loyalty to FG is VERY conditional.... any voters vote should be similarly flexible as conditions dictate.

marco_polo

Victor Meldrew wrote:

If Bertie follows CJ and is found to be a corrupt and kept man then there will be a section of the electorate who will still forgive him.

If the economy heads south, another section of the electorate will see the economy heading south as something that only FF can fix (again, a bit delusional, if FF watched the slump unfold and did nothing...)

Now, in the above scenario, your leader and his party are corrupt and incompetent and you still vote for them... Even if you find FG and labour offputting, at least you should give FF a kick.....

My loyalty to FG is VERY conditional.... any voters vote should be similarly flexible as conditions dictate.

Ok thats a very fair point, Apologies I think i misinterpreted you original post as targeted towards anyone who voted for Fianna Fail in this election .

A large floating vote is an essential part of a healthy democracy, I personally cannot understand people who only vote for one party their whole life either, even if they are doing a crap job. Or anyone who votes for the likes of Flynn or Lowry come to think of it.

In fairness to Bertie and FF he cannot be judged before all the facts are known, and I believe he was rightly given the benefit of the doubt by voters on his financial matters.

Mick86

Liam Byrne wrote:

.....but if Bertie has conned us and FF stood by him, it'll be a different story.........

Bertie Ahern must be some kind of Svengali. People love him.

The proof of the pudding is Trevor Sargent. Before the election he could not abide Ahern. Wouldn't trust him an inch. Five minutes alone in a room with the man and Trev comes out on all fours, tail wagging and sitting up to be fed a biscuit in front of the cameras.:D

Oh yeah I give the government 12 months. We could still have the same Dáil and a change of government though. I think.

brianthebard

I'd be very surprised if this government goes further than three years. I don't know how the greens didn't realise that they are in government just to keep them quiet, they are superfluous to FF needs and only there to ensure that the opposition will not be able to stop any of the policies going through.

Badabing

I think having a stable goverment is very important and genral elections every 5 years is a good thing for Ireland, I would have said the same thing if fg/lab had of won, I read through the programme for goverment and i think its a very good document and positive for us as a nation, i think the greens have alot of worthwhile policies in the programme and look forward to the next few years.

brianthebard

I honestly think that if Bertie really wanted a stable government he would've gone with Labour, but he knew if he took in a big second party like that he might actually have to listen to their demands.

Mick86

Badabing wrote:

...I read through the programme for goverment and i think its a very good document and positive for us as a nation, i think the greens have alot of worthwhile policies in the programme and look forward to the next few years.

I'm sure the Greens have worthwhile policies- like rerouting the M3. And lots of people would think stopping US troops landing in Shannon a worthwhile policy. But I wander off topic. The discussion is about how long this government will last. In other words how long will it take the Greens to twig that they've been taken for a ride and whether the independents will stay bought.

Mick86

brianthebard wrote:

I honestly think that if Bertie really wanted a stable government he would've gone with Labour, but he knew if he took in a big second party like that he might actually have to listen to their demands.

Is he really interested in stable government? I always get the impression from Irish politicians that the achievement of power is the goal, not what you do when in power. On top of that of course while the Greens and independents constantly feel the ground shifting beneath their feet they can't really concentrate in implementing any of their policies that FF doesn't really like.

brianthebard

I agree with you, I'm just saying that throughout the campaign the buzz word was stable government and to me that does not me a fairly left wing party, a fairly right wing party, and a bunch of wheeler dealer out for themselves independents. So yeah i think the goal was to have a pretty fractured government with FF being the clear driving force for the next five years (doubtful) allowing Bertie to make his last term as taoiseach an easy ride to push through whatever he wants done basically. Cynical perhaps but I doubt even FF supporters will disagree.

Badabing

brianthebard wrote:

I agree with you, I'm just saying that throughout the campaign the buzz word was stable government and to me that does not me a fairly left wing party, a fairly right wing party, and a bunch of wheeler dealer out for themselves independents. So yeah i think the goal was to have a pretty fractured government with FF being the clear driving force for the next five years (doubtful) allowing Bertie to make his last term as taoiseach an easy ride to push through whatever he wants done basically. Cynical perhaps but I doubt even FF supporters will disagree.

With 78 seats of course Bertie should push through Fianna Fail policies thats why people voted for him. I don't think the greens will leave goverment before the 5 years.

bk

I wouldn't bet against this government lasting 5 years.

Of course anything is possible but I think it is simply wishful thinking.

FF has now got an excellent track record of holding together a lot less stable coalitions for 5 years.

It is also not in the green parties interest to collapse the government, as many people have said the greens have lost a lot of respect, if an election was called tomorrow, they would probably be wiped out. It is in their interest to keep it going for 5 years so that they can prove their credentials in government and rebuild support.

Even more so for the PD's.

And remember even if the greens were to pull out, FF would still have the numbers.

Victor

The thing is FF+PD+Green+Ind=89. They only need 83 or in practice, in the high 70s.

Voipjunkie

It will go the 5 years presuming Brian Cowen follows Berties position of using the full term.

Collie D

I initially thought that the FF/Green/PD/Indo/Liquorice Allsorts/Hundreds and Thousands government wouldn't last longer than a year but now I believe we're stuck with them for the duration.

The greens have already bent over for FF and abandoned their principles so will probably be happy enough to be FF's bitch for the next five years. They can get two electric Mercs and call it their one concession form their negotiations.

The PDs don't really have a choice but to go along with the government because in Opposition they would become extinct (one can only dream).

The real threat to stability comes from the Indos but we'll see what Bertie has in store for their constituencies to keep them happy.

So, unfortunately we could be in it for the long haul.

brianthebard

Badabing wrote:

With 78 seats of course Bertie should push through Fianna Fail policies thats why people voted for him. I don't think the greens will leave goverment before the 5 years.

They didn't receive a majority percentage wise. The people also voted for all the other parties, does that mean you want all the parties in government together?

Pride Fighter

It will collapse after 2 and a half years when Flynn is readmitted into FF and given a ministry over people who deserve it. FF backbenchers wont be happy, oust Bertie, install Cowen, who will then call a general election. FG will win 60 seats and Labour over 23 giving us a shiny new government without the Green lapdogs in office.

Heinrich

Pride Fighter wrote:

It will collapse after 2 and a half years when Flynn is readmitted into FF and given a ministry over people who deserve it. FF backbenchers wont be happy, oust Bertie, install Cowen, who will then call a general election. FG will win 60 seats and Labour over 23 giving us a shiny new government without the Green lapdogs in office.

...and then you woke up!

The Flynn lady has now convinced herself that she did nothing wrong as did Bertie. Shining angels, being treated as skapegoats by the corrupt opposition. Then you have the blue seeping out of the greens and yellow is becoming predominant.

The more suspicious the issues become the more the punters love it. Shure Bertie and Charlie before him were rogues but behing the roguery they were doing a great job. You only have to look at our World Class services to see that. HSE, Iarnrod Eireann, Dublin Bus, M50, Tara, housing prices etc and you will understand that these poor politicians are undervalued.

K-9

Heinrich wrote:

You only have to look at our World Class services to see that. HSE, Iarnrod Eireann, Dublin Bus

All the Govts. fault. The Unions and vested interests are blameless I suppose?

Heinrich

Seanies32 wrote:

All the Govts. fault. The Unions and vested interests are blameless I suppose?

Who claimed it was ALL THE GOVERNMENT'S FAULT? Let's deal with the Government's part in this. The Unions are another topic for another discussion.

Trying to mitigate blame because someone else is doing it is nonsensical.

K-9

Heinrich wrote:

Who claimed it was ALL THE GOVERNMENT'S FAULT? Let's deal with the Government's part in this. The Unions are another topic for another discussion.

Trying to mitigate blame because someone else is doing it is nonsensical.

They're often linked as in Benchmarking.

Fair enough blame the Government but don't go easy on the vested interests either. Unions, management, builders etc. etc.

Badabing

brianthebard wrote:

They didn't receive a majority percentage wise. The people also voted for all the other parties, does that mean you want all the parties in government together?

In coalition goverment Fianna Fail have 78 seats the greens have 6 so obviously the much bigger parties polices will be dominant, if Labour had have been in goverment then you would expect more of a balance in the programme of goverment, I don't mind the green polices per say they have alot to offer over the 5 year term.

is_that_so

Seanies32 wrote:

They're often linked as in Benchmarking.

Fair enough blame the Government but don't go easy on the vested interests either. Unions, management, builders etc. etc.

Vested interests are only as powerful as they are allowed to be. What gives them that power is the government in power. This government along with its predecessors has opted for the ostrich approach when faced with vested interests.
The only exception are the hospital consultants who are so "completely to blame" for the health service that anything they get is deserved.

Bertie has a fondness for handing the public unions lots of money all for the loose promise of "reform" and a bit of peace and quiet. Equally we can't really upset developers because "we need houses" and no-one wants to upset the market.

IMO there is no genuine backbone in the government to face down anyone with the exception of Harney. The Minister for Finance is expected to be recalcitrant so he doesn't count.

I think the new kids on the block will find how hard that is and they not find themselves keen to keep going all the way through. If the government gets through three years it will probably last, but that depends on the Green appetite for disappointment and disillusion. Harney will stay unless something really unsavoury comes out of Mahon. It's her last Dail and she has a "date with destiny".