Nut flush Draw 3 bet preflop 50 NL

dvdfan

Villains stats 80/4.5 after 155 Hands
He sees 68% of turns when he sees a flop and 75% of Rivers when he sees the turn. Hes Showdowns Won % is 43 and hes flop and turn aggression stats are 1.0 and 1.4

Is this just a stupid turn bet, should i always check here. The villain obviously has a hand hes only raised 4.5% and now hes min RR although i have over 5/1 to call preflop so i was just going to have a look and see if i could hit 2 pair or better and fold anything else.

Green Joke Poker "TURBO" Apollonia 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop

Button ($71.75)
SB SB ($57.59)
BB ($55.35)
UTG UTG ($49.35)
UTG+1 Hero ($48.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q K
UTG calls 0.50, Hero raises to 2, 1 fold, SB calls 1.75, 1 fold, UTG raises to 3, Hero calls 1.50, SB calls 1.50.

Flop (11.00) 6 2 A
SB checks, UTG bets 6, Hero calls 6, 1 fold.

Turn (23.00) 7
UTG checks, Hero bets 20

insafehands

Interesting.

Pre-flop is fine, but I'd say the flop call is pretty bad. You're not getting correct odds to call here unless the other guy calls behind, which is a risk and it hasn't paid off here.

I wouldn't say the turn bet is stupid, I think your man fears a flopped flush, but I'd have a) checked behind and b) bet less, half pot or so.

valor

turn bet is horrible

cooker3

Absolutely check that turn

dvdfan

He had QhQc and called and we checked the river down. Looks horrible the more i look at it, i dont mind the flop call, ive only to get about $7 more in the pot on the turn to get my implied odds although you could argue that would be hard with 4 clubs on the board but my bet put him in a difficult situation and he probably would have folded with JJ-KK with no club but i dont think it was worth it, maybe it has its merit betting OOP against a player that i know is capable of folding a big hand on a dangerous board but this is 50NL after all.

BobSloane

Yeah the turn bet is scour. But if I bet the turn I probably compound the misery here and throw out a big bet on the river too. If you are going to go down this road you're probably better off betting less on the turn and having enough left behind on the river to get him to fold. This is hari-kari advice really though.
Guys with stats like that call bets - so when you bet you generally want to have a hand. If you are going to bluff - the river is the place to do it where the villian can say "oh no i've only got a pair of queens and there's all those clubs and an ace and cards to make a straight or he could have a set or 2 pair."
On any board, on the flop or turn they're thinking "Well I'm probably beat but if another club comes off I'll have the 2nd best flush or a queen would give me a set etc..". Or they're looking to make the gutshot straight or whatever.
When you bet the turn, you obviouly had no idea what your next move would be - providing he called, which was likely as he had a hand preflop and likes to see 75% of rivers after seeing the turn.

If i bet the turn here, I push the river - and say goodbye to another buy-in lol

dvdfan

Ok so i give up with this bluffing crack, im just not at a level where anyone would respect it. Villain is 19/15 after 85 hands and flop agression is 3.0 and turn aggression is 2.0, he seems like a decent player and there just was a prolonged discussion at the table when i RR another player on a JTx flop when i had the OESD and he folded and said he had JT and that he folded because the notes and stats suggested i had a big hand probably a set. Im sure he would have seen some of this discussion but cant be sure.


Green Joke Poker Malelane 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($62.53)
SB Hero ($53.10)
BB ($125.78)
UTG ($24.18)
UTG+1 ($49.25)
CO ($46.75)

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with 7 7
UTG raises to 2, 1 fold, CO raises to 7, 1 fold, Hero calls 6.75, 2 folds.

Flop (16.50) 6 T J
Hero checks, CO bets 6, Hero calls 6.

Turn (28.50) T
Hero checks, CO checks.

River (28.50) J
Hero bets 25, CO calls 25

CO shows A Q
Hero shows 7 7

CO wins 78.50 with Flush (Hearts) with Ace high

Considering Villains stats he should be laying this down should he not, hes not getting huge odds to call, and T or Any J beats him, my check on the turn could have been an attempt to C/R and not weakness.

Hes weak flop bet and turn weakness like the example above made me decide to try this as he seemed unwilling to build a pot but it seems you need a crowbar to get some of these villains off a hand so im not going to try anymore:( Maybe he was trying to induce a bet and after the board turned sour he just couldnt get away from it

cooker3

First of all fold pf, calling re-raise oop with middle pair when it's 15% of your stack is bad.

I think you are way overthinking the situation here, he had a flush and it's 50nl, he is never ever folding that, simple as.

BobSloane

On the plus side the guy taking notes thinks you're a bit of a chancer now. (calling the bet on the flop is a bit mystifying to me though)

RedJoker

dvdfan wrote:

he folded and said he had JT and that he folded because the notes and stats suggested i had a big hand probably a set.

I hate the idiots that do this.

dvdfan

cooker3 wrote:

First of all fold pf, calling re-raise oop with middle pair when it's 15% of your stack is bad.

I think you are way overthinking the situation here, he had a flush and it's 50nl, he is never ever folding that, simple as.

I was asking about this the other day about what kind of odds etc we need to call 3 bets with and didnt really get any responses other than someone said dont call off more than 5% of your stack thats $2.50 at 50NL so basically i can only call a min raise 3 bet if i raise to my standard $2 as anything bigger will be +5%, i presume this is for PP and anything other than AA-TT i should be dropping for more than a min raise.

What about suited connectors, i guess i should just drop them to anything bigger than a min raise 3 bet or should i just fold them to any 3bet.

Bandana boy

In fairness when you are playing at this level bluffing is not easy
I would Change your tack to getting value from them when your ahead instead of trying to push them of there big hands

In hand 1 you know he is calling with those stats check the turn and push if you fill is more profitable long run

Hand 2 a bet on the river is not terrible but he was never folding the nut flush.
The flop call is where you have to ask yourself a serious question do you think your ahead ? are you calling to float a scare card
what do you think is a scare card ? do you flat call with Aj here as well ?

HiCloy

In hand 1 i would definitely not bet the turn

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the turn and river stats after only 150 hands unless i'd seen some examples of leaky play

RedJoker

dvdfan wrote:

I was asking about this the other day about what kind of odds etc we need to call 3 bets with and didnt really get any responses other than someone said dont call off more than 5% of your stack thats $2.50 at 50NL so basically i can only call a min raise 3 bet if i raise to my standard $2 as anything bigger will be +5%, i presume this is for PP and anything other than AA-TT i should be dropping for more than a min raise.

What about suited connectors, i guess i should just drop them to anything bigger than a min raise 3 bet or should i just fold them to any 3bet.

Your 8-1 to hit a set on the flop, that means you can call 1/8 of your stack provided you're sure you can get his whole stack if you hit. Obv it's very hard to be sure of this so you probably need about 10-1. If a person with very low pfr 3 bets, you can be confident he's on aces or kings and you're therefore likely to get his stack if you hit. For ease of calculations I'll ignore the times you get redrawn or when you get a free turn card when an ace hits and he's on kings, or assume they cancel whatever.

I'd nearly always fold SC to anything except a min-raise 3 bet. Steal attempts are only profitable if you give up when you get played back at.