Throwing away money? (hh)

jacQues

So I decided to play big today. PokerStars' Sunday warmup and 150-WSOP qualifier. First level of the wamup this happens:

PokerStars Game #10480651521: Tournament #52341725, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (25/50) - 2007/06/17 - 12:54:05 (ET)
Table '52341725 106' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: ballespark (10075 in chips)
Seat 2: May555 (10375 in chips)
Seat 3: Kikken (9150 in chips)
Seat 4: aureleus (8675 in chips)
Seat 5: Dirk Reems (10450 in chips)
Seat 6: sevensfull77 (10875 in chips)
Seat 7: mymandi1 (10065 in chips)
Seat 8: CRAIC (10350 in chips)
Seat 9: papy26 (9685 in chips)
mymandi1: posts small blind 25
CRAIC: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CRAIC [9s 9h]
papy26: folds
ballespark: raises 150 to 200
May555: calls 200
Kikken: calls 200
aureleus: calls 200
Dirk Reems: folds
sevensfull77: folds
mymandi1: folds
CRAIC: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9c Js]
CRAIC: checks
ballespark: bets 800
May555: calls 800
Kikken: calls 800
aureleus: calls 800
CRAIC: calls 800
*** TURN *** [Tc 9c Js] [2d]
CRAIC: checks
ballespark: bets 9075 and is all-in
May555: folds
Kikken: calls 8150 and is all-in
aureleus: folds
CRAIC:

I'm thinking I'm behind, since there was a call. The caller probably flopped the straight. But any pair and I win a monster pot, not to meantion the posibility that I'm ahead against an overpair and two pair. Besides, never fold a set.....right?

I don't mind putting my chips in early. If it works I'm almost in the money. But was it wise or a donkey call? To me it was almost a no-brainer. I didn't raise with 99 so if I hit a set I can push or call one. But I didn't expect two pushes before me.

jacQues
( hamster)

CRAIC: calls 9075
*** RIVER *** [Tc 9c Js 2d] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CRAIC: shows [9s 9h] (three of a kind, Nines)
ballespark: shows [8s Qs] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
ballespark collected 1850 from side pot
Kikken: shows [Qh Kh] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
ballespark said, "nh"
Kikken collected 29475 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 31325 Main pot 29475. Side pot 1850. | Rake 0
Board [Tc 9c Js 2d As]
Seat 1: ballespark showed [8s Qs] and won (1850) with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 2: May555 folded on the Turn
Seat 3: Kikken showed [Qh Kh] and won (29475) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 4: aureleus folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Dirk Reems folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: sevensfull77 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: mymandi1 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: CRAIC (big blind) showed [9s 9h] and lost with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 9: papy26 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

NeoSlicerZ

I fold the turn.... esp with the action before me >_<. I think you're drawing to 13 or 1 outs on the river. I think a higher set/straight is a huge possibility here. I don't think the caller of the AI is going to do it with less than a set/straight.

jacQues

NeoSlicerZ wrote:

I fold the turn.... esp with the action before me >_<. I think you're drawing to 13 or 1 outs on the river. I think a higher set/straight is a huge possibility here. I don't think the caller of the AI is going to do it with less than a set/straight.

Funny enough, if there was one all-in, its an instant call. But with two, my thoughts were exactly that. Unless the caller has some info on the better that I don't know off. But even so, fold a set? As far as I was concerned that turn was good for me.

jacQues
( hamster)

Lazare

It's a snap call for me. You're good far too often, this is the first level of the tournament, the field is donkaplenty, so the first caller is callling with a lot of hands you beat. Folding is terrible.

SavageBeat

Tough one. Me thinks that a fold seems like the right move, but its reeeaaall hard to let a set go. With the action on the turn, the problem is I would think is that one of them flopped the straight. It's early game, plenty of other chances to get your chips in when you KNOW your ahead.

Lazare

SavageBeat wrote:

Tough one. Me thinks that a fold seems like the right move, but its reeeaaall hard to let a set go. With the action on the turn, the problem is I would think is that one of them flopped the straight. It's early game, plenty of other chances to get your chips in when you KNOW your ahead.

Folding here is -EV. We're getting 2.5/1, we can usually be sure of being ahead of the OR, the caller is calling with AA, KK, QQ, 10J and sometimes even AcXc a lot more than QK, JJ or 78.

Don't 'wait for a better spot', this is not a spot to pass.

Goodluck2me

I think you can find a fold here.

ocallagh

if your this bad our heads up match will be easy. stop stalling.

jacQues

ocallagh wrote:

if your this bad our heads up match will be easy. stop stalling.

Right. Too bad I cannot report PMs. After your lovely PM you are now on my ignore list. I'll clear it coming Christmas. Next time think before you assume the worst. End off.

jacQues
(shocked hamster)

ocallagh

jacQues wrote:

jacQues
(shocked thieving hamster)

FYP

ocallagh

ok, before I get banned for talking about MCD my account was hacked!!! sry jacques. blame reggie and oscar

Samba

I blame the parents

Tar.Aldarion

You can report PMs to a mod/smod and it will be dealt with, but hois account was haxxed.
I fold, after a call, the caller definitely has a straight in these situations, just happenstance that the other guy did too.

TacT

donkaplenty or not, you are always behind here and it's a clear fold.

Lazare

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

, the caller definitely has a straight in these situations

Why?

Lazare

TacT wrote:

donkaplenty or not, you are always behind here and it's a clear fold.

Would you fold AA if you were second villain?

Tar.Aldarion

the blinds are 25/50. He just calls off his entire stack.
Unless he is terrible...Slight chance he has a set, but I always run into a straight here.

Would you fold AA if you were second villain?

Yes, what are you ahead of aj, kk, qq?

Lazare

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

the blinds are 25/50. He just calls off his entire stack.
Unless he is terrible...Slight chance he has a set, but I always run into a straight here.

Yes, what are you ahead of aj, kk, qq?

The standard is terrible, if you always run into a straight here, you're not playing enough.


Oh, and Jacques, lead the flop.

Tar.Aldarion

What do you think he is calling a near 200 blind bet with?What do you think the 9000 bet is? What are we ahead of that the both have? Top pair, 2 pair?
How likely are we beating both?

Lazare

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

What do you think he is calling a near 200 blind bet with?What do you think the 9000 bet is? What are we ahead of that the both have? Top pair, 2 pair?
How likely are we beating both?

I think you're giving your opponents too much credit here. You do realise how bad the standard is in the opening levels of these tournaments?
We can safely assume we're ahead of the OR as he'll play this way with AA, KK, QQ, 10 J, AJ and even KJ, QJ, the only hands he does this with that crush us are JJ 10 10 and KQ, we're ahead of far too much of his range.

The caller will call here with AA, KK, QQ, J10, AcKc, 10 9, AcXc and sometimes even AJ/KJ, so again, we're ahead of too much of his range to lay down.

Mr.Plough

never folding this in a donkament.


if the standard was at all decent i could, but not here.

its shocking the amount of times people go to war with middle pair

BigCityBanker

people dont fold sets...

but they are fools...

what sort of action are you ever gonna fold a set to if not to this?

BMcG05

jacQues wrote:

)
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9c Js]
CRAIC: checks
ballespark: bets 800
May555: calls 800
Kikken: calls 800
aureleus: calls 800
CRAIC: calls 800
*** TURN *** [Tc 9c Js] [2d]
CRAIC: checks
ballespark: bets 9075 and is all-in
May555: folds
Kikken: calls 8150 and is all-in
aureleus: folds

Personally I think this is quite an easy fold.
That flop is incredibly dangerous for you and with 4 other players involved calling large bets, you have to think you're in trouble.
Then when the turn all-in comes, and there is a call ahead of you, realistically you are only beating a flush draw.

Its obviously difficult to fold a set but with sooo much action in the hand you are always going to be behind...just my 2 cents

Lazare

BigCityBanker wrote:

people dont fold sets...

but they are fools...

what sort of action are you ever gonna fold a set to if not to this?

Folding here is a leak.

Against good players who know what they're at, calling is bad.

In the first level of a donkament, I'm shipping everytime.
If one of them has an over set, so be it, move on to the next one.
If one of them has a straight, and I don't hit one of my 10 outs, so be it, move on to the next one.

BMcG05

Lazare wrote:

Folding here is a leak.

Against good players who know what they're at, calling is bad.

In the first level of a donkament, I'm shipping everytime.
If one of them has an over set, so be it, move on to the next one.
If one of them has a straight, and I don't hit one of my 10 outs, so be it, move on to the next one.

that philosophy is just going to end up costing you. At such an early stage, how can you tell if any of these people are donks? The odds you keep referring to, and your entire justification, is based on these large tourneys being full of fish...not exactly a scientific analysis.

If you keep calling off with bad cards in the hope the other guy is a poor player, you will lose in the long term

Lazare

BMcG05 wrote:

that philosophy is just going to end up costing you. At such an early stage, how can you tell if any of these people are donks? The odds you keep referring to, and your entire justification, is based on these large tourneys being full of fish...not exactly a scientific analysis.

If you keep calling off with bad cards in the hope the other guy is a poor player, you will lose in the long term

LOL, but the times I've got a 30k tank will make up for when I'm wrong, believe me. In other words, it's +EV.

BigCityBanker

Lazare wrote:

Folding here is a leak.

I dont think so. If you are willing to get your chips in then do it on the flop.

id like to see maths on this. Were getting 2.5/1. are we ahead 40% of the time when we get our money in? Or likely to be ahead enough of the time by the river to justify getting it in on the turn against their likely range given the action.

Tar.Aldarion

If the people are as bad as you say Lazare, easy call, but I can't really determine that without stats. I don't find it a good way to play in the long run as it gets you knocked out on a hope.
I don't know what this 'warm up' thing is, how much is it in?
What % of people have to suck before you make this call?

Lazare

BigCityBanker wrote:

I dont think so. If you are willing to get your chips in then do it on the flop.

id like to see maths on this. Were getting 2.5/1. are we ahead 40% of the time when we get our money in? Or likely to be ahead enough of the time by the river to justify getting it in on the turn against their likely range given the action.

We only need to be ahead 30% of the time.

I agree though, the money should've went in on the flop, checking that flop was bad.

BigCityBanker

another point - these bad players are also of the disposition to call preflop with Q 8 and then push the turn with is cos their scared sh1tless of somebody hitting a flush.

Lazare

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

If the people are as bad as you say Lazare, easy call, but I can't really determine that without stats. I don't find it a good way to play in the long run as it gets you knocked out on a hope.
I don't know what this 'warm up' thing is, how much is it in?
What % of people have to suck before you make this call?

A huge percentage of the field qualifies, there is a lot of dead money on your starting table. Our hand is just too strong against our opp's ranges to let go.

Lazare

BigCityBanker wrote:

another point - these bad players are also of the disposition to call preflop with Q 8 and then push the turn with is cos their scared sh1tless of somebody hitting a flush.

He'll also do this with J 10, 10 9, J 9, AA, KK, QQ, AJ,KJ, QJ

Tar.Aldarion

Still don't know if I would call, I don't like to assume they are bad and go all in with kj etc here. Just my more cautious line I s'pose.

BigCityBanker

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

go all in with kj etc here.

I might fold 99 but i snap call with KJ in this spot.

sikes

i defo fold the turn. i am getting the tank in on the flop though. theres loads of dead money and its such a draw heavy board. its what wet dreams are made of.

Tar.Aldarion

Why does the turn matter so much as to fold, surely that card makes no difference?
Edit: oh wait...

Mr.Plough

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

Why does the turn matter so much as to fold, surely that card makes no difference?

givin the action

Tar.Aldarion

Oh yah, I saw, thought he meant regardless of action.

sikes

if we are behind we have one less card to make a house/quads. all draws are more likely to call on the flop and your standard player in these things are going to find it difficult to dump two pair and overpairs, but getting to the turn gives them too much of a chance to.

BigCityBanker

sikes wrote:

if we are behind we have one less card to make a house/quads.

I know I posted similar above but now that i think of it

- on the flop we have 7 outs twice
- on the turn we have 10 outs once

in terms of % do the above two vary dramaticaly?

CelticPhantom

BigCityBanker wrote:

I know I posted similar above but now that i think of it

- on the flop we have 7 outs twice (7 x 4 = 28%)
- on the turn we have 10 outs once (10 x 2.2 = 22%)

in terms of % do the above two vary dramaticaly?

...

Lazare

We're assuming that we're always behind here, which is not the case.

buck65

DONKAPLENTY - lol classic


FOLD surely a straight.

sikes

the 6% is good but the real value of getting it in on the flop is from the much wider range you are going to see show up from the villains.

EDIT: but we know that we are going to have 10 outs on the turn anyway so you lose about 12% equity on the turn.

Lazare

Sikes, I'm not sure of the percentage of qualifiers to this game, but I'm guessing it's about 50%. I'm not labelling qualifiers as donks, but half or more of your starting table will be bad players.

With this in mind, do you include AA, KK,QQ, J 10, 10 9, J 9 and possibly AcXc in the first callers range?
His range obviously includes QK 10 10 and JJ, but folding when we're getting 2-5/1 is bad.

I'm not concerned with the OR.

BMcG05

Lazare wrote:

I'm not labelling qualifiers as donks, but half or more of your starting table will be bad players.

That is an outragous comment.

sikes

if we are getting 2.5/1 we need 29% pot equity. We cant really ignore the OR cos he has 2 cards that he likes at least! Other villain he overcalled a raise pre so immediately the prob that he has a premium goes way down, he then did it again on the flop.

Its closer than I originally thought. though but i am getting a load of my stack if not the whole thing over the line on the flop.

EDIT: Yeah the fact a load of qualifiers make it slightly more difficult to lay the turn down but make a push on the flop much more profitable.

Lazare

BMcG05 wrote:

That is an outragous comment.

Maybe it's an outrageous comment for you, as it is relative.

On reflection, it's actually quite a generous comment.

CaptainNemo

I agree with BigCityBanker - if you can't fold middle set on this flop, after this action, you are basically saying that you can never fold a set. But context is everything isn't it...

In a large buy-in event, if I was playing well, I think I would put down my 9's here. In a small buy-in online donkament I think I would call, because many times I've seen one muppet go all-in with 2 pair or a straight draw and get calling by another muppet with one of the above hands. I would call and figure oh well, if I'm behind I can still pair the board on the river.

However this tournament is a bit of a grey area. I think you can assume that a $200 WSOP qualifier tournament is a cut above your normal online tournament standard. I think you have to assume that at least 1 of the 2 players know what they're doing, and you have to fold this, unless you're happy to stick it in with the worst hand and hope to triple up if the board pairs.