2 pair Am i Bluffing Or Value Betting 50 NL

dvdfan

Giving Original Raisers stats i should never had called this preflop as im very likely up against AK,AA-QQ here but i never noticed them before calling.

Green Joke Poker Bossangoa 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($57.95) (38/11 after 45 Hands - Flop Aggro 1.3 Turn aggro 3.0 showdowns won 29%)
SB Hero ($100.30)
BB ($9.25)
UTG ($47.55)
UTG+1 ($19.20) 25/2.5 After 160 Hands Flop Aggro 2.0 Turn Aggro 1.0 Showdowns won 78%

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with J A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 2, Button calls 2, Hero calls 1.75, 1 fold.

Flop (6.50) J 4 A
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 4, Button calls 4, Hero raises to 13.20, UTG+1 moves all-in for 13.20, Button calls 13.20, Hero calls 4.

Turn (58.10) K
Hero checks, Button checks.

River (58.10) 2
Hero moves all-in for 81.10

What do you think of this play, villain checked in position on a big pot and looks like hes afraid of the flush draw. It also looks like he has a decent hand, i was putting him on AK here or a smaller 2 pair, im not really sure if i have the best hand or not but i could very well see him dropping AK or a straight here or do you think its bad or how do you play the river?

insafehands

Why?

He's only going to call if he has you beaten? VB the river... $40-50

insafehands

Dp.

dvdfan

Not Sure what the DP means

But the villain only has $54 left behind so any bet $35 or over pot commits me anyway so if im willing to Value Bet here im committed to any RR all in from him and so if i push i have folding equity aswell if he has me beat with a straight or AK, or is he likely to drop either of them on this board.

insafehands

At that level (which I play at too), you're not looking at 100% folds with AK or made straights. I might also consider check/calling the river.

The AI guy on the flop prob had a flush draw or AK I'd say, so it's somewhat likely you're already beat by the way. With that being the case, I don't see a point in betting, so yeah, I prob check the river and see what he does.

Dp = double post.

By the way, I like the way you're always posting hands - you're doing the right thing and seem to be a decent player. Keep it up.

Ste05

LOL, I thought you meant DP = Disconnect Protection. i.e. Disconnect and activate your DP. Seems like a great spot for it on the flop, [Disclaimer: Please no one do this, it's Reeeeeaaaaaaally annoying!!]

Not sure about the River, can't really see AQ calling, which is about all you beat that might call, maybe some idiot with KJ...

eggie

check call river

Gholimoli

dvdfan wrote:

Not Sure what the DP means

But the villain only has $54 left behind so any bet $35 or over pot commits me anyway so if im willing to Value Bet here im committed to any RR all in from him and so if i push i have folding equity aswell if he has me beat with a straight or AK, or is he likely to drop either of them on this board.

this is really relly bad.
you will never ever get a better hand than you to fold here ever.
when you say you may get him to fold a str there you are really suggesting that he wil call a check/raise(from you) + a push (from shorty) on a middler and then fold when it actually comes in !!!!!
now that would really be strange.

he would also never fold AK.
the only good thing pushing has bere is that he way have A4 possibly A2 if he is really bad.

i would lead that flop with the intention of getting as much or as little money in the pot on the flop.
if you lead for the pot or just under it you will either get short to commit or pass and both are good .(you can over push if shorty pushes whether or not button calls.)

also check calling on the river is very bad.
he is never betting the river with a hand that you have beat which makes check calling horrible.(maybe with A4 he would do it but he would have to be very bad).

as played i prefer pushing than check calling but dont like either that much.

dvdfan

When i made the move i taught to myself what did i do:eek: Its one of those bets where as InsafeHands said im only getting called by the better hand and im folding out hands i already beat. But he nearly timed out before he called so it seems like he consdered folding before calling with 44 for the set. I would have never done this hand he checked the turn but i sensed weakness.

If im honest though even though he showed weakness i never taught the hand through before making the move. I had a nice sample on the shortstack 162 hands and hes PFR was 2.5% which has to mean AA-JJ and AK and the only hand im ahead of in that range is QQ so im likely beat for the side pot already when the turn comes. If i taught i was ahead of Villain on the turn i would bet 100% of the time but i wasnt sure. One thing i like to do is put the villain on a range of hands before i made my decision and for this hand i was thinking AK was very likely and if i went with my read i wouldnt have bet that river.

Saying that it was a difficult hand with the turn check it was hard to know wheter i was ahead or way behind and it was hard to bet size because a bet of 1/4 the pot might look weak after the turn check and induce a bluff and can i really call an allin on that board. a 1/2 pot bet or more would leave me pot committed almost so maybe somewhere in between 1/4 and 1/2 if i was value betting.

Anyway Shortie had QQ and Villain had set of 4's and i think i nearly got him to lay down the set judging by the amount of time he taught about it (or maybe he was just in the loo) but as Gholi said its unlikely hell fold a hand that beats me here.

insafehands

He played it weird from my POV. I would have raised flop and bet the turn if I were him.

dvdfan

insafehands wrote:

He played it weird from my POV. I would have raised flop and bet the turn if I were him.

I agree especially with the FD on the flop. If i checked the river and he bet is it a call or fold considering i may have induced a bluff checking 2 streets