Odds Preflop - Whats Good And Why?

dvdfan

When i hear people say, thats good odds preflop or thats bad odds preflop then what do they consider. So anyway ill list a couple of hands preflop and what theyre odds are of improving:


After being dealt a pocket Pair the probability of:

Flopping a set or better - 7.5/1
Making a set or better by the river - 4.2/1

After being dealt Ace High Flush the probability of:

Flopping a flush - 118/1
Flopping a flush draw - 8.1/1
Making a flush by the river - 15/1

With 2 non-pair cards, the probability of flopping:

At least a pair (using your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 2.1/1
A pair (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 2.5/1
Two pair (using both of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 49/1
Any two pair from two non-pair cards - 24/1
Trips (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 73/1
Anything else is unrealistic so i wont list it

So from that we see that PP look the best, their very well disguised and thus easy to get paid off with if villain hits hes hand and so their implied odds are good, but if their implied odds are so good then does it really make a difference if you have 1.9/1 or 3.5/1 preflop other than the fact you have a bigger edge but should you be still calling both. What if your 3bet 5x then youll be getting about 1.3/1 is this too little to call?

For Suited Cards it looks very like they must have more quality than just flush possibilities, they would also need to have Top Pair Probabilities Like AK,AQ,AJ with the added bonus of being the nut flush or maybe straight possibilities because the chances of flopping a set 118/1 are huge and youll never get paid of enough with a flopped flush to make the implied odds good enough especially if you dont have the nuts or close to nuts flush so in summary it dosent seem profitable to V$PIP with any 2 suited unless they have other probabilities like straight and Top Pair, id imagine this is largely due to the fact your calling a raise so you have no fold equity and you wont be the aggressor on the flop, is this correct should we fold any suited cards that are non nut, dont have TP or straight possibilities?

So if we assume we are throwing away any 2 suited that needs us to put money in a pot unless they have Top Pair Possibilities or Straight Possibilities. Well say AK-A8, KQ-KT, 76+ fit into this category. Were about 8/1 to flop the FD and we are still 4/1 to improve to the flush after that.

Im not so good with calculations but its obvioulsy somewhere between 8/1 and 15/1 to hit the flush by the turn (do you just add 8/1 + 4/1 = 12/1 doubt it?) we should also take into consideration the TP and Straight possibilities but im not a maths guru and the whole point of this thread is to discuss what we consider to be good odds preflop but i hope someone good with maths can work out the EV's in these situations but id imagine your implied odds with suited conns is good but again what do we need preflop to be calling profitable with these hands.

With 2 Non Pair Cards it dosent seem profitable to be calling with anything less than AK-AJ even if im getting good odds eg 3/1+ because 1 pair 2.5/1 is unlikely to be good at least in a raised pot because a small pair i would imagine isnt going to fare well over the long run and we need to improve to 2 pair to hit a hand 24/1 that has good impled odds.

Again im not trying to say X isnt profitable to play and my post is a bit of a mumble to be honest and i dont have the stats to back it up but what im trying to get going is a discussion on what we consider good odds to be calling with certain hands and why? Hopefull a few math gurus will come up with some proper EV calculations too but at the moment when i get offered odds preflop i dont fully understand what kind of odds i need to be getting to make a call profitable and should we treat a raised pot differently than a pot were limping into in the small blind if the odds are the same it shouldnt make much difference at least for suited cards and pairs but it may affect unpaired hands as AT-AJ arent as strong in a raised pot because they may be dominated.

MisterMonkey

flush draw on flop = 2/1 to hit by river. if you miss turn your then 4.5/1 to hit river, i dont know where you get 4/1 and somewhere between 8/1 and 15/1 from

dvdfan

MisterMonkey wrote:

flush draw on flop = 2/1 to hit by river. if you miss turn your then 4.5/1 to hit river, i dont know where you get 4/1 and somewhere between 8/1 and 15/1 from

Sorry i meant the combined odds of pre-flop and flop, as i said my maths isnt the best so ignore any errors in calculations, i just want to discuss what odds are the min odds for say calling with suited connectors or Pocket Pairs etc and why you set this minimum range

MisterMonkey

suited connectors generally only play well when we're very deep as they obv rely heavily on implied odds. pp are similar but not to the same extent, <5% of your stack is fine as long as your opponent is also well stacked

RedJoker

MisterMonkey wrote:

flush draw on flop = 2/1 to hit by river. if you miss turn your then 4.5/1 to hit river, i dont know where you get 4/1 and somewhere between 8/1 and 15/1 from

It's 4.22 on the flop and 4.11 on the turn to hit the flush on the next card.

On flop: 52 - 3 (on board) - 2 (in hand) = 47

[47 - 9 (flush cards left)] / 9 = 4.22

On turn: 52 - 4 (on board) - 2 (in hand) = 46

[46 - 9] / 9 = 4.11