What would YOU do Billy?

BobSloane

You are on the button with AdQc. Your stats over 80 hands are 20/12. Villian is 25/19 over 80 hands

$100NL. effective stacks ~120

UTG folds.
MP folds
CO(villian) raises to 4
Button(you) calls 4
SB folds
BB folds

Flop Ah 5c 8h ($9.50)
Villian bets 7
Button calls 7

Turn 2d ($23.50)
Villian bets $15
Button calls $15

River 6h (53.30)

Villian bets $35

Action.?

Ste05

What's his Post Flop AF??

This would make me decide what to do, probably call though.

DEmeant0r

call and cry if he has AK

phantom_lord

I'd probably just call. what his agression factor?

edit: I might fold actually. it's hard to see him leading all streets with a worse hand and the fd's hit.

Norwich Fan Rob

flat call seems fine,

ozpoker

As played, I think there is an argument for jamming on the river as a bluff. Your line looks a lot like a flush draw that got there and a reasonable player could lay down AK there. This is one of those rare situations that can both be a bluff against a better hand and a value bet against a worst one. If he has the flush though, you're screwed of course.

While not specifically asked for, I think a hand defining raise on the flop is called for. Unless you have evidence that this villain bets bad aces light, I don't like the passive play, and knowing where you are in the hand a whole lot earlier is the much better play, IMO.

-Oz-

David Michael

BobSloane wrote:

You are on the button with AdQc. Your stats over 80 hands are 20/12. Villian is 25/19 over 80 hands

$100NL. effective stacks ~120

UTG folds.
MP folds
CO(villian) raises to 4
Button(you) calls 4
SB folds
BB folds

Flop Ah 5c 8h ($9.50)
Villian bets 7
Button calls 7

Turn 2d ($23.50)
Villian bets $15
Button calls $15

River 6h (53.30)

Villian bets $35

Action.?

I would have raised on the flop because you know you are going to have to bet the turn. I tend to combine those into a flop bet and make him pay for his extra card, take the pot or see where I stand with a bit more clarity.

As is.... its a coin flip.

carfax

I certainly call after calling the flop and turn bets......You're calling those streets hoping for a bet like that on the river aren't you?

dvdfan

Im leaning towards folding, hes raising a wide range from the cutoff giving hes stats and he could easily have hit that board hard, the flush has hit on the river and he dosent seem worried and hes been agressive on all 3 streets, were probably ahead of only a semi bluff that possibly hit on the river or a complete bluff, cant see him doing this with Middle Pair or Top Pair Jkicker or less, your behind 2 pair, flush, AK a set and a possible but unlikey straight.

Mr.Plough

without 3betting pf youve gotten yourself into a situation where youve no idea where you are in the hand. he could easily have ak/aj but youve no info whatsoever.

as played i fold. what do you beat? i dont think he's 3 barrelling with aj or less, and every draw under the sun just hit.

Ste05

Mr.Plough wrote:

without 3betting pf youve gotten yourself into a situation where youve no idea where you are in the hand. he could easily have ak/aj but youve no info whatsoever.

We're ahead or behind, that's all we need to know, if his AF is 6 then it's an insta-call, if it's <1 then it's a fold either here or on the turn.

BobSloane

This is one of those retardo hands where I'm the villian.
On the turn I bet 15 and he called. He seemed like the real bog standard guy who would call the 7 on the flop with a flush draw thinking he's getting 2-1 but not call 15 on the turn as the odds are incorrect. So I reckon he has an ace - he would surely raise with a set fearing that I could be betting the flush draw. So he's probably got AT,AJ,AQ or AK - 4 of which I beat 3 ties and 8 I lose. As it turns out I checked the river and he gleefully checked behind.(I had AJo). Then I said "dang, I might have pushed him off that hand. If i made a flush i would probably have bet about 35."

I need him to fold here 40% of the time and our survey says no - only 14% will fold. And a call has to be good less than 30% of the time so it is a call really.(My AF is 4ish) Maybe there's more value in a push requiring a 60% fold lol

I suppose its a bad line of thinking anyway as so many things have to be right - for starters if he has the flush im fcuked.

Such a standard situation TPGK v TP slightly better kicker. I like ozpokers style. I knew someone would want to shove it all-in!

RoundTower

I think you are usually behind, he almost always has AK or 2 pair, sometimes a flush or a set, but you should call.