Is this ever a call?

bops

SE Sat for WSOP
Down to last 12 (6 handed) i have 44k villain has 39k av is 30k

blinds are 600/1200 with a 200 ante

the game has been going well, i enjoy playing with decent chips and meeting a couple of fellow boardies (hi all!) - i've been playing good...so far!!
the biggest danger at the table is connor doyle - the rest are very beatable imo (wes is at the other table - he was sick unlucky)

anyway, the villian is an ok player - nothing fantastic - i've played cash with him before, and he talks a better game than he plays if you know what i mean. the main point behind this is i have marked him for a double up - i have given his raises way too much respect and have shown him my folds afew times - i know that he will try a blig bluff on me - it's only a matter of time

he has played all his big hands taggy any 88+ AJ+ but he has a strange habbit of limping in with hands like KJ and QT and calling PF raises with them on the grounds of "value" - this has been lucky for him - hence his stack.

ok so:

he open lims on the button - the SB folds and i check

flop 788r (pot 4200)

i check
he bets 2k
i raise to 6k
he pushes for 30k more!!!

if i call i'm basically gone

i have 73o wtf?!?!

when you post instafold - plz give explanation to why ty

cheers
bops

El Stuntman

why did you checkraise the flop?

bops

El Stuntman wrote:

why did you checkraise the flop?

to find out where i stood! Loooooooooooooool @ me!!!!

Mr.Plough

fold. you just stated he's playing tag. all you beat is a bluff, which will probably have some outs aswell. i'd need some rock solid read before i risk losing my stack with 72.

Hectorjelly

lol

When he is bluffing he will have at least 6 outs, if he has something like 9T he has 14. So if you are ahead you wont be ahead by much, when you are behind you will be basically drawing to 2 outs or 0

Lissavalley

Think I fold here. You asked a question and got an answer.

You still have plenty of chips to manouver with even after you've lost the 6k.

mdwexford

what HJ said.

tell me you didnt call

slegs

bet he called and won

bottom feeder

hi ya bops, was good to see ya in dublin again...;)
yeah i know the guy your talking about, is a very weak player....

i have a feeling you called and he turned over something like J10....

bops

the question is "is he bluffing?"

i call if i think he is - i don't care if he has 2 overs or a draw - if i think im ahead i'll stcik it in (Lloyd would be proud!!)

i really couldn't put him on a hand here - i dwelled up for a while - there was no big physical tell/read available, but he wasn't too confortable with me counting my chips out

his limping antics, his overbet, the yeti theorem (lol i read books!) and me being a complete fking donkey led me to putting him on 2 overs and making the call :eek: :eek:

Ste05

Just call the flop bet.

I'd never check raise here so I don't really know whether I'd call or not, but since I have to answer here I fold, HJ gave the reasons why.

Although I'm looking forward to the result, maybe you finally lost one of these mad hands???

Ste05

bops wrote:

his limping antics, his overbet, the yeti theorem (lol i read books!) and me being a complete fking donkey led me to putting him on 2 overs and making the call :eek: :eek:

and ..............

Tar.Aldarion

And results.
*pops corn*

bops

the suspense is killing me patience ffs

El Stuntman

bops wrote:

his limping antics, his overbet, the yeti theorem (lol i read books!) and me being a complete fking donkey led me to putting him on 2 overs and making the call :eek: :eek:

which of these 4 factors was most influential?

TacT

call

what happened?

bops

he had J8o eeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhh aaawwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhhh

i suspose he disguised it well

lucky i caught running 7's lol (joke joke)

BigCityBanker

why didnt you just open push the flop and maximise your fold equity?

strewelpeter

I like his shove here if he has two over or an 8. He has read you perfectly, if he has two overs and doesn't hit then its a sick beat for him :rolleyes:

mdwexford

sounds like a donktastic game

open limping otb with J8, committing 33 bb's with 73, quality stuff

bops

mdwexford wrote:

sounds like a donktastic game

open limping otb with J8, committing 33 bb's with 73, quality stuff

hey!! i had 2 pair

Ste05

BigCityBanker wrote:

why didnt you just open push the flop and maximise your fold equity?

Is this a serious post??

bops

a couple of points if anyone is interested:

when i check raised, it knew it was pretty obvious what i was holding - these were my thoughts (i normally wouldn't check raise here btw)

1) he folds - happy days
2) he calls - im fked
3) he raises- this is the interesting one - i expect him to try and bluff me off a 7 here, as i said i have respected his raises up to this now - if i was him i'd push here with 2 overs a lot
When he didn't look too confortable, when i was counting up the call - i read it wrong - he was slightly worried of the small chance of me having him outkicked or filling a straight

the funniest thing was when i looked at my hand after he limped into me i said to myself "now bops whatever you do, don't go broke with this sh*t )

speaking with connor afterwards, he reckoned that there was a fair chance that my call would be a good one, but he stressed that it is one i didn't need to make, i was playing well, building a good stack and didn't need to risk it all on a very marginal decision with a weak opponent

ah well you live and you learn

5starpool

Ste05 wrote:

Is this a serious post??

I seriously doubt it is. I could see the dripping sarcasm from here.

Hectorjelly

this is the worst call ive ever seen in a serious post, and either conor was kidding or he has literally no clue what he is talking about.

Hectorjelly

bops wrote:

the question is "is he bluffing?"

i call if i think he is - i don't care if he has 2 overs or a draw - if i think im ahead i'll stcik it in (Lloyd would be proud!!)

You might not get this, but ill try anyway. Theres 16 in the pot, and he raises you all for 30 more. To make the maths easy Ill assume make the pot $100, and his raise all in $200. Im going to round all numbers up.

When you are right and he is semi-bluffing, you get back your equity in the pot. Against someone with 9To, you are nearly exactly 50 50. Against someone with 9J you win 60% of the time. So if the pot was to end up $500 you get about $275 back in equity, meaning in calling here you make about $75 profit.

However, when he is ahead with an 8, which is what he is representing, he wins the hand 99.89% of the time. So when you call here, you lose $198

So when you are right you gain about $25 in equity, and when you are wrong you lose $200. So in order to call you dont have to just think he is bluffing, you need to be virtually certain. If you were 60% sure he is bluffing, you should still fold. From your posts you dont seem to understand this.


You can work out exactly how sure you need to be in order to make the call with an equation

Something like, where x = % of him bluffing/ (X%*25)+(100-X%)*(-200)=0

Im tired and will finish this tomorrow.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

RoundTower

how is it pretty obvious what you are holding, that is the last thing I would put anyone on in this spot.

The Tourist

Getting only slightly off topic, not knowing what the yeti theorem was, I popped it into a search engine, but I guess I got lost....

The defective yeti Coworker Lunch Theorem:
(http://www.defectiveyeti.com/archives/000702.html).
If spontaneously organizing a coworker lunch outing without a predetermined destination, the number of minutes that will elapse between the first suggestion of the event and the group actually leaving the office will be equal to n^2 + 5, where n = the number of persons involved.

Oh, wait, here it is:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Number=9622773

kakak1

bops wrote:

ah well you live and you learn

well YOU live but .......................

kakak1

Hectorjelly wrote:

You can work out exactly how sure you need to be in order to make the call with an equation

Something like, where x = % of him bluffing/ (X%*25)+(100-X%)*(-200)=0

fcuk, now I know why I can't win my local €10 + €10 rebuy + €10 top up. I never completed my masters in mathematics

phantom_lord

you went to primary school tho, right?

bops

kakak1 wrote:

well YOU live but .......................

i have decided to play the 50 fo in waterford tonight purely on the basis of the above comment

i look forward to taking all your chips again as per usual



bops

RoadSweeper

Would any one call based on the yeti threorm?

bops

RoadSweeper wrote:

Would any one call based on the yeti threorm?

myself! wrote:

his limping antics, his overbet, the yeti theorem

...probably the main reason i called - sigh

RoadSweeper

bops wrote:

...probably the main reason i called - sigh

TBH i think i might have just to test if the therom really works! :rolleyes:

bops

Hectorjelly wrote:

You might not get this, but ill try anyway. Theres 16 in the pot, and he raises you all for 30 more. To make the maths easy Ill assume make the pot $100, and his raise all in $200. Im going to round all numbers up.

When you are right and he is semi-bluffing, you get back your equity in the pot. Against someone with 9To, you are nearly exactly 50 50. Against someone with 9J you win 60% of the time. So if the pot was to end up $500 you get about $275 back in equity, meaning in calling here you make about $75 profit.

However, when he is ahead with an 8, which is what he is representing, he wins the hand 99.89% of the time. So when you call here, you lose $198

So when you are right you gain about $25 in equity, and when you are wrong you lose $200. So in order to call you dont have to just think he is bluffing, you need to be virtually certain. If you were 60% sure he is bluffing, you should still fold. From your posts you dont seem to understand this.


You can work out exactly how sure you need to be in order to make the call with an equation

Something like, where x = % of him bluffing/ (X%*25)+(100-X%)*(-200)=0

Im tired and will finish this tomorrow.

Darragh, i do appreciate your post/posts etc and i do understand what you are saying and it's all textbook as per usual, but...

in my warped little mind, i reckoned the following (i'll keep it simple, and of course i didn't do all the math in the three minutes i had to make my decision)

his holding:
a smaller pp to my 7 - very possible to limp with - 10% - 2 outs
2 random overs - he liked limping with these (eg KJ) - 50% - 6 outs
an OESD - 56 maybe, 69 some people like it! 9T quite possible - 20% - 8 outs [edit sorry 10 outs]
a 7 with better kicker - 10% - for arguments sake say A7 and im dead
an overpair - couldn't see him limping - im dead 5%
a 8 - couldn't see him pushing - im dead 5%


pot 16k call is 30k to win 46k - 6/4

by my incorrect (retrospectively) reasoning i was getting way over the odds 80% of the time to make this call. 20% of the time i accepted that i'd be dead

on this basis is it not correct to make the call??

ok if i was only correct 50% of the time and i'm getting 6/4 on my money...


i'd appreciate someone else to look at this coz tbh my head is wrecked!!