Tough spot in a Macau Freezeout.

Recon20k

I'm new to boards, and this is my first thread. This hand is a tough spot (i think) that I ran into in a freezeout in the Macau casino.

The villain in this hand is relatively weak and had basically been given his stack, making a lot of big vs smaller-big hands. I'd raised and stole some pots from him and was waiting for an opportunity to get my chips in against him. We are the two big stacks at our table with 3 tables left.

Blinds are 200/400 and I'm playing a 13k stack in the big blind. A limper in MP, button limps and SB completes. I check QTo. Flop comes QQ4 with 2 clubs. Its checked to the button who throws in 1000. SB folds, I call, MP folds. Villain on the button has me covered. Turn is a 5d. I bet 2200 and the villain instantly moves all in.

Call/Fold ???

Two notes on the villains play.
1. At the 100/200 level he limps Qc3c a short pushes in for about 1200, there is a caller and he calls. Its checked down to the river and he makes his flush and bets it small, like 500.

2. 2 limpers and he raises AA on the button. He flat calls 2 bets on the flop (KJ4) and turn (7) from the cut off(playing KJ). The river pairs the board with a 4, and it goes check-check.

5starpool

I can't see how you can fold here.

CaptainNemo

I was at the table when this happened last night and you had a difficult decision. You have to figure that this guy would have raised with AQ and possibly KQ so there are only a couple of plausible hands he can have that beat you - QJ, KQ (maybe), AQ (unlikely), 44 or 55.

Having said that, I had been watching him play, and even with strong hands he had been playing passively and betting small, so when he chucked all his chips in so confidently I thought he was super strong.

I guess the question you have to ask yourself is would this guy have limped in with Q9, Q8 and played it this way. I guess a big temptation to call is the fact that earlier on he limped in with that Q3c and called a raise with it :-) But when he bets it, then you call and bet out on the turn and he insta-pushes, I think even a very bad player is going to have you beaten most of the time in this spot.

Having said all that, I think I would have called.

buck65

gotta call
surely a flush draw or pocket 4s
ooops

Moneymaker

Not much you're beating here really. I'd fold reluctantly and look for a better spot to stack the donk.

Mr.Plough

he didnt post this so someone could post the results 2 posts later.



snapcall for me

Macspower

welcome to boards Recon.....

I think it's a call and if your beaten then unlucky...

Mac

CaptainNemo

Mr.Plough wrote:

he didnt post this so someone could post the results 2 posts later.



snapcall for me

That occurred to me after I posted it, I'm new here so probably violated etiquette, I'll remove the result from mine.

BigCityBanker

This is far from a straightforward call.

You are beating Q with 9 8 7 6 3 2 and beaten by every other queen. and also by 44 and 55 which I dont this we can totally exclude. Asuming villian isnt some sort of uberdonkey he is never pushing here without 44 55 or Qx, I doubt very much he is semi bluffing with a FD.

This is very tight - id like to see some maths.

I dont think a fold is bad

Edit to say I dont expect he is pushing with Q2 or Q3 in this spot and I think it is pretty fair to exclude it from his range.

Mr.Plough

i think hes raising Aq and possibly kq as the op doesnt say anywhere that hes passive pf. so would it be fair to say your only behind to 44 55 and qj?

BuChan

like BCB said you only beat Q rag or a PP if he comes form the "pair on the board means he can't have it" school, but the way he played the AA kind of rules out the PP. he has to know you have a Q from the way you bet the hand, check call the flop lead the turn that's rarely a bluff... tough decision probably a fold but you have a lot of your stack in....lol what a indecisive post

Recon20k

BigCityBanker wrote:

This is very tight - id like to see some maths.

I ran some simulations using propokertools.com and its showing a small favorite for QT vs any Q, and almost even money for QT vs any Q or 44/55.

board: QcQd4c5d
Hand....Pot equity......Wins.......Ties
QT........54.47%...........7,152......2,952
Q*........45.53%...........5,736......2,952

board: QcQd4c5d
Hand.......Pot equity......Wins.....Ties
QT...........52.06%...........7,320....2,952
Q*,44......47.94% ..........6,624....2,952

board: QcQd4c5d
Hand............Pot equity.......Wins........Ties
QT................49.93%............7,488........2,952
Q*,44,55......50.07%............7,512........2,952

Given his passive nature however and his instant all in, maybe i can dump a Q with a 2,3,6,7 from his range??

Also if i fold i'm left with about 9-10k and im confident could push him off a lot of pots, simply by raising for isolation when he limps. However i'm not left with much margin for error if one of these goes wrong. So is it better to dump such a 50-50 spot even if i am ahead, or should i take the situational gamble?
I always considered it better to gamble against better players and play small pots against weaker ones.

Recon20k

Mr.Plough wrote:

i think hes raising Aq and possibly kq as the op doesnt say anywhere that hes passive pf. so would it be fair to say your only behind to 44 55 and qj?

Thats fair, but do you call/fold QT on this board to a passive players all in??

DEmeant0r

What's his button raise range? If you think QJ is included in this range and since he limped on the button then I think you are ahead, unless you're unlucky enough to be up against 44 or 55.

But against a passive player's all in and because this is a deep stack, I don't think a fold is so bad here. You can find a better situation later on to stack him.

Hectorjelly

Im definitely calling here

DEmeant0r

Also, if he has AQ,KQ,or even QJ here why would make a move like that? He would be making all the Q rags fold here which is not profitable, or is my thinking wrong?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

CaptainNemo

DEmeant0r wrote:

Also, if he has AQ,KQ,or even QJ here why would make a move like that? He would be making all the Q rags fold here which is not profitable, or is my thinking wrong?

The guy was pretty weak. I saw him make a lot of questionable plays. He ended up coming 2nd. The guy who came 1st was the only player in the tournament who I thought was playing worse.

Lazare

BuChan wrote:

he has to know you have a Q from the way you bet the hand, check call the flop lead the turn that's rarely a bluff...

Floaters heaven, a la Yeti.

Lazare

DEmeant0r wrote:

Also, if he has AQ,KQ,or even QJ here why would make a move like that? He would be making all the Q rags fold here which is not profitable, or is my thinking wrong?

Yes, because villain is a bad player.

Hectorjelly

results?

Recon20k

Hectorjelly wrote:

results?

I called and he showed QJ, rivering a J for the full boat.

Lazare

Recon20k wrote:

I called and he show QJ, rivering a J for the full boat.

So he went from being miles ahead, to miles and miles and miles ahead.