Low Content - Manipulating the Pot Size To Get The Right Odds

dvdfan

Just a taught i want to get out of my head.

Do people ever think ahead and make a bet size based purely on what odds youll be getting if your opponent pushes instead of what odds your giving them by betting and is this a good pratice or should i just concentrate on what odds im giving them. This is mainly related to drawing hands.

For Example Lets Take a Hand at 25c/50c:

Villain $50
Hero $50

I have AKh I lead for $2 and Get RR to $8 and i flat call

Flop Comes Jh Tc 4h ($16 pot)

If i check and he pushes all in then im getting about 1.4/1 and my odds of improving to win are 1.2/1 if we assume my A or K isnt good enough to win the hand and i need to improve to a straight or flush to win but the call is marginal however +EV.

However if i bet $16 into the pot hes faced with an all in or Fold. We give ourself alot of folding equity too with possibly the worse hand at the moment and if he pushes we get over 2.8/1 on the call which is alot better than the 1.4/1 we get by checking if were pushed on. and we have 12 outs and a 1.2/1 chance of improving. If he flat calls we have 12 outs on the turn.

Now thats not easily worked out in the 20 seconds you have to decide what to do so is there some formula like bet 3/4 pot you get x.x/1 if he pushes so you can manipulate the pot in your favour. Even using the above example if you just had the OESD you could do exactly as above to manipulate the odds to have enough to call the all in with wheras if you check with OESD and he bets 1/2 pot or more or even pushes we will never have the odds to call. So is checking with any decent drawing hand a big mistake so?

This is just one example but just wondering do people think like this to manipulate the odds in other situations or does this even make sense. I hope i got the maths right, not exactly my strong point but nonetheless the theory is the same.

Belt Away:)

5starpool

I don't think you should look at it this way. In the example above he is betting with a semi bluff, giving himself another way to win the pot. It is a strong hand, but not really one to trap with. Of course a consequence of this is that if he does shove then you are getting a better price, but I don't think you should consider this as a reason to bet. There are many reasons to bet but I don't think this is one of them.

Checking with drawing hands is good at times as you never want to be seen as someone who always bets draws (or the opposite), and against multiple opponents in early position it might be better to check raise or even check call depending on the situation.

dvdfan

5starpool wrote:

I don't think you should look at it this way. In the example above he is betting with a semi bluff, giving himself another way to win the pot. It is a strong hand, but not really one to trap with. Of course a consequence of this is that if he does shove then you are getting a better price, but I don't think you should consider this as a reason to bet. There are many reasons to bet but I don't think this is one of them.

Checking with drawing hands is good at times as you never want to be seen as someone who always bets draws (or the opposite), and against multiple opponents in early position it might be better to check raise or even check call depending on the situation.

Yeah, i get what your saying but the above example would more apply to headup and Being OOP as there are too many variables with a multiway pot. But im thinking especially in the example above where the agresser 3 raised me preflop its very rare that your going to see someone check here so your going to lose this hand 9 times out of 10 with any reasonable bet size or at least your going to be playing the hand hoping to have the implied odds which isnt gauranteed on a draw heavy board like this.

If im always manipulating the pot with draws to give me good odds to call an all in when im OOP then im going to make a profit in the long run, people also dont know if im betting because ive hit the J,T trips or maybe have AA-QQ. People are going to miss the flop enough here to give me Good Fold Equity and observant opponents may also pay me off if i hit a hand on a drawing board in future because they expect me to bet draws like this.

In summary even if my opponent puts me on a draw here and knows hes ahead of me because im OOP i can control what odds i get if he pushes and they are going to be in my favour not hes, he cant fold if hes a made hand, if he misses hell probably fold and if he just calls i get to see another card with a drawing hand. Surely this is mega +EV

dvdfan

Lets take another example with a pot without a 3 bet again 25c/50c:

Villain $50
Hero $50

I have KhQh in CO and call a $2 raise from MP
Flop comes 2h6h9c($4 Pot)

I check the flop and he bets $3. I RR to $15

If he calls i have approx 12 outs Flush + maybe 1 overcard so im a 3/1 shot to improve. If he pushes all in hes giving me 2/1 and im 1.2/1 to improve, so again even if he has the best hand hes making a mistake if he pushes as the odds are im my favour and im going to be +EV in the long term plus again i have huge fold equity and im setting myself up to be paid off on future hands because the might put me on a draw when i have a made hand.

It seems for this to work i need to put him in a situation where he cant RR and hes only option is to Push Fold or Call. In the first situation because of the 3 bet i could do this by betting, i this scenario with the smaller pot i needed to CR as betting the pot here is no good as if he RR me im in trouble.

I just need to work out some sort of Formula where ill know how much to bet or CR by to give me certain odds. Any Matamatical Geniuses want to give it a go.

fuzzbox

You make the raise/bet in the first place because its +EV to do so (based upon fold equity + equity if called), then if he pushes you have a new situation and now its entirely a pot-odds question.

What you dont want to do, is to bet, just to give yourself odds to call, because then you can create a compounding error situation, where, because you made a bet that was -EV in the first place, you now should call the rest of your stack off because pot odds are good, but in total, you are getting the worst of it (due to your initially bad bet/raise).

5starpool

I still think that your approach to this is wrong. What you are talking about should in my opinion be a consequence of your actions not a reason for it. In theory you could apply that to ridiculous scenarios as well where you make a big bet with a middle pin straight draw even when you know he won't fold just to say that you had odds to call. Bet sizing shouldn't be dependant on you wondering what aoods you will be getting if he shoves on a particular street.

Mr.Plough

fuzzbox wrote:

What you dont want to do, is to bet, just to give yourself odds to call, because then you can create a compounding error situation, where, because you made a bet that was -EV in the first place, you now should call the rest of your stack off because pot odds are good, but in total, you are getting the worst of it (due to your initially bad bet/raise).

.

RoundTower

if you make a bigger bet, you put more money into the pot in the first place. This is not a good idea if you are assuming you are behind and unlikely to get called.

dvdfan

Yeah i see what you mean that each move should be dependant on wheter the current play is +EV or not.

CelticPhantom

In your first example you are betting €16 so that if he pushes you can win a €100 pot for just €26. This would give you pot odds of 26%.

You have 12 outs over two streets giving your hand (12 x 4) = 48% of improving to a winning hand.

If he pushes when you bet you are getting good odds to call.
What if he just calls, the turn is a blank for you and he now pushes.
The pot is still offering you odds of 26%. But you chances of hitting a winning hand are now (12 x 2) 24%.

You are now getting the incorrect odds to call.

Unless you know for certain that he will push (or that the turn will help you) this is just gambling!

jacQues

Betting such draws should be done to mix up your game, for example 1:5 times. This can be good strategy as your opponent has to keep guessing as to why you are betting. Betting for pot odds is kinda weird to me. It seems to me that you are trying to disrupt you opponent's (push-happy) game instead of playing your regular game. I agree that adjusting to your opponent's game is important. But I think that mixing it up should work better than betting out. If your opponent is any good LAG (s)he will have no problem adjusting accordingly to your new bet-out-strategy.

jacQues
(:o hamster)