Call or fold?

CaptainNemo

So, this hand happened near the bubble of the €500 NL Freezeout in the Macau last weekend. The blinds are something like 500-1000 with a 50 ante, I think.

We are 8-handed and I think it was 3 or 4 folds around to me. I have A6d. I have about 10,000 chips and am starting to feel the pinch so I decide this hand is good enough to do something with and raise to 4000.

The player to my left reraises enough to put me all in. He is known to be very aggressive, sticks in a lot of raises and reraises with a wide range of hands. Two or three hands ago I raised, he reraised and I folded and he showed AA.

So it's folded back to me and I have to decide whether or not to put my last 6000 in. I'm not sure what he thinks of me as a player but what I think of myself is that I call too much so I suspect that's what he would think too. In other words, I am sure that he wants a call here. The fact that he's talking to me while I'm thinking, saying "You can't fold now, you're pot committed" is a bit of a giveaway too.

There's about 16000 in the pot so I would be getting something like 2.6/2.7 to 1. I'm sure he has a big ace or a big pair here, but even so, I think I'm getting pretty near the odds I need to call, even if he has AK or QQ. Not to mention that if I fold this I am crippled.

What would you do?

luckylucky

Not a nice spot at all as you are almost defnitely behind but I think you are pot committed here. The only hand that you don't have pot odds against are AA.

CaptainNemo

I think I even have the odds against KK here - in that case I have to hit my ace, and he might as well have 77 as KK. The only hand I'm totally dead to is AA.

5starpool

I would probably have shoved in the first place. How and ever, he has to know that you are very likely to call him here so he never has crap in this point, so you know you are behind. You are about a 3/1 dog to all hands that are not AA (or under pair, but this is unlikely). You are not quite getting the right odds, but it is closeish. I think call is better than shove one of the next few hands with possibility of getting into the same situation for less chips.

luckylucky

CaptainNemo wrote:

I think I even have the odds against KK here - in that case I have to hit my ace, and he might as well have 77 as KK. The only hand I'm totally dead to is AA.

Yeah you have odds against KK, my mistake in original reply, dunno why the fook I included KK.

luckylucky

5starpool wrote:

You are about a 3/1 dog to all hands that are not AA (or under pair, but this is unlikely). .

Since his cards are suited it gives him a couple more percent. Against AK he is approx 30% according to Hendonmob,
Agaisnt KK, taking the worst case of this where one of the kings is one of his suits , he is still over 31%.

In both cases it's a call since he's getting 2.6 or 2.7 to 1. At 2.6 to 1 he needs to have less than approx 28% chance of winning hand to make fold correct.

It's defo a call now imo, as 5Starpool says though you probably should have shoved in the first place.

CaptainNemo

5starpool wrote:

You are not quite getting the right odds, but it is closeish. I think call is better than shove one of the next few hands with possibility of getting into the same situation for less chips.

The end of the story is that I folded and he showed AA (again!) and I felt like a genius.

A few hands later I pushed with A10 and get called by the SB who has A9, he hits a 9 on the flop and I exit the tournament feeling pretty unlucky.

The reason I'm asking about this hand is because although I knew he was strong, it was impossible to put especially this player on exactly AA here and therefore I think I made too tight a fold. I think if I had this to play again I would just push the rest of the stack in and if he has AA, oh well, I will just have to make a flush.

CaptainNemo

luckylucky wrote:

It's defo a call now imo, as 5Starpool says though you probably should have shoved in the first place.

Personally I think I should have thrown it away preflop, I have 10xBB and I don't usually like to start pushing it all in until I'm under a little more pressure than that. Is that wrong?

Or here's another option, I could have raised to 3000, then I have the odds to fold if I'm raised all-in ;-)

Flushdraw

CaptainNemo wrote:

Personally I think I should have thrown it away preflop, I have 10xBB and I don't usually like to start pushing it all in until I'm under a little more pressure than that. Is that wrong?

Or here's another option, I could have raised to 3000, then I have the odds to fold if I'm raised all-in ;-)

I think you're short enough to pushing rather than make strategic raises. If you want to use M as a guide, you have an M of just over 5 so this is push mode.

A raise to 3k would almost look stronger than a raise to 4k when you have a 10k stack so it might have been the better option. If 3k i'd fold to 3bet

luckylucky

CaptainNemo wrote:

Personally I think I should have thrown it away preflop, I have 10xBB and I don't usually like to start pushing it all in until I'm under a little more pressure than that. Is that wrong?

Or here's another option, I could have raised to 3000, then I have the odds to fold if I'm raised all-in ;-)

I've been having this debate with a pal of mine, he would say it's an automatic push and that's kinda in line with HOH afaik. My results with pushing with hands like A6s in these spots don't make me like it though, tbh I prefer waiting until I'm under a little more pressure and in a bit better position also. Maybe I'm just being results orientated there though!

Not sure if I'm so keen on the 3000 raise either, it actually looks scarier than the 4000 raise but still it's smaller and increases your chance of getting action, especially a call if the big blind has something reasonable. Still I suppose it could work and it's easier to get away from the re-raise as you say, though when you do so you've lost 30% of your stack.

CaptainNemo

Flushdraw wrote:

I think you're short enough to pushing rather than make strategic raises. If you want to use M as a guide, you have an M of just over 5 so this is push mode.

A raise to 3k would almost look stronger than a raise to 4k when you have a 10k stack so it might have been the better option. If 3k i'd fold to 3bet

Yeah I think if I'm going to fold to a reraise here then I should be putting in less preflop. I usually do 3xBB anyway, don't know why I made it 4 this time.

But you're probably right, if I'm playing it I should just shove 'em all in, no more difficult decisions. Then AA calls me and I get to make my flush.

Flushdraw

CaptainNemo wrote:

Yeah I think if I'm going to fold to a reraise here then I should be putting in less preflop. I usually do 3xBB anyway, don't know why I made it 4 this time.

But you're probably right, if I'm playing it I should just shove 'em all in, no more difficult decisions. Then AA calls me and I get to make my flush.

Generally if i see someone raise almost half their stack, i dont see it as strength. It looks almost exactly what it is. A raise with an a medium strength hand but basically commiting themselves to call an allin because of pot odds. I'd probably put you to the test with 88 or AJ in that situation

Sirtoyou

With 1900 inthe middle pf you have an m of 5.
This limits your options to push or fold.
i personally hate pushing with ace rag here as the most likely hands to call have you dominated or your drawing to 1 overcard.
As played you have to call , the fact he showed aa is irrelevant because by folding your m is now 3 ie. no fe.

SIR

Gus Ivey

i would never fold with almost half my stack in there......push PF so you dont have to make a "tough" decision

NickyOD

Playing the hand at all, including pushing preflop is bad with that hand unless you are shorter, or unless maybe if you're pushing from the small blind or from the button with 2 shorter stacks in the blinds.

As played I probably fold to th e shove not because you are defo up against atleast a pair but because you're up against Ace-Paint a lot!

mdwexford

pushing preflop is not bad at all, its completely standard and is what you should have done

nicnicnic

if you decide to go with the hand its a push. with ten BB if your playing a hand you should be playing it for your stack. its also an easy push from cut off. the way it played out I probably call but hate doing it

nicnicnic

NickyOD wrote:

Playing the hand at all, including pushing preflop is bad with that hand unless you are shorter, or unless maybe if you're pushing from the small blind or from the button with 2 shorter stacks in the blinds.

interesting I'd consider the push a riskier/less effective play into shortstacks

sikes

Pushing is fine preflop. 3 left to act behind you, thats a super standard push.

Folding now is insanity. Even if his range is AA,KK we are nearly getting the odds to call. Start throwing in AK its fine. But he is doing it with a much wider range.

RoundTower

Making it 4000 is fine so long as you don't do something stupid like fold now.

CaptainNemo

I think the consensus is that once I'm into this hand for 4000 I shouldn't fold, and I think I agree having thought about it a lot. The chances of being up against exactly AA are very small. Goes to show that reality can be a great source of delusion...