What would Mike Caro do?

Primewise

€1 / €2 Pot Limit. Live, Full Ring, Cash Game.
Hero has €600 and is dealt Kjo.
Villain has me covered.

Until now I’ve been limping frequently, and rarely raising preflop.
Villain is quite good, has been playing very LAG, playing most pots and often betting/raising the flop with air to steal the pot.

Preflop
UTG calls to 2
Villain calls 2
4 players fold.
Hero (Cutoff) raises to €11
Button folds.
SB, BB, UTG and Villain all call.


Flop: 8 9 Q rainbow. Pot €55

All players check to Hero.
Hero makes a continuation bet of €30.
SB, BB, UTG fold.

Villain raises to €75.

Hero thinks, and calls with a gutshot draw, and planning to fire again on the turn if a blank hits and if he checks. (I know I should have folded here..but anway)


Turn: 10 , completing the rainbow and giving me the nut straight. Pot €205

Villain bets €50
Hero Raises to €200
Villain calls.

River: Q, pairing the board. Pot: €605

Villain bets €400

Hero dwells and thinks for about a minute. Meanwhile villain sits there staring at me. Villain then stands up, puts hands on hips, walks around for a few secs. Then sits down, grins at me. He then plays peekaboo at me. At this point I’m trying to think what Mike Caro would do? I look down at my remaining stack and see €300 left. There is €1005 in the pot.

Action to hero? Is he bluffing?

Lazare

Had villain got bell bottoms on?

luckylucky

Primewise wrote:

At this point I’m trying to think what Mike Caro would do? I look down at my remaining stack and see €300 left. There is €1005 in the pot.

Action to hero? Is he bluffing?

I have no idea what Mike Caro would do, luckylucky calls though.

Primewise

I’m just going to give more information on the villain:

I’m discounting the possibility of him having a flopped a set, as he was raising frequently preflop and didn't raise PF this time. His limping range is any two cards. His raising range would include pairs such as 88+

careca

Purely from a 'tell' point of view, if a player gets up and walks around the table, I would imagine he is very strong.

The way the hand played out, he could easily have hit two pair on the turn (Q10) and was, obviously, worried that you had a jack. In fact he should have folded the turn. Not sure whether the odds dictate that you should call, but I reckon you're beat here.

Lazare

If he's as good as you say he is then you have to call.
You've discounted a boat with a PP because of his pre flop play, and filling up two pair should also be discounted because a good player shouldn't have called pre flop OOP.


edit, actually, his call pre flop might not be too bad considering he's closing the betting and 3 others have called.. I still call though.

Hectorjelly

Easy push, esp if he never has a pair. TJ never folds, neither do a lot of queens

Lazare

Hectorjelly wrote:

Easy push, esp if he never has a pair. TJ never folds, neither do a lot of queens

Villlains bet is more than hero's stack.

luckylucky

careca wrote:

Purely from a 'tell' point of view, if a player gets up and walks around the table, I would imagine he is very strong.

Yeah, the one time I have experienced that the guy had the nuts too, do you reckon it's nearly always the case then?

Lazare

luckylucky wrote:

Yeah, the one time I have experienced that the guy had the nuts too, do you reckon it's nearly always the case then?

It's prolly always the case with him (you're opp), but it's not always the case for everyone. Basing your decision on a physical tell is pure madness unless you've spent a huge amount of time playing that opponent.

IMO, the whole concept of physical tells is bullsh1t. You just don't play with people long enough to confidently make a decision based solely on them.

They're for the movies.

Primewise

Lazare wrote:

IMO, the whole concept of physical tells is bullsh1t. You just don't play with people long enough to confidently make a decision based solely on them.

They're for the movies.

Tells are never 100% accurate. However they can be used as a guide, as an additional piece of information to add to a story. In addition to your history with the player, betting patterns it gives you a better picture. When you are faced with a very difficult decision , a tell can confirm what you concluded by the betting, or it can provoke you to reconsider.

I've read that typically players will not flinch when they are bluffing, for fear of giving away a tell. When players talk to you they are not afraid and are trying to provoke curiousity and provoke a call.

I was faced with another tough decision a few weeks ago when I had AA on a low flop. The opponent massively over-raised me on the flop, and then proceded to chat to me. The guy even said "you have aces right?" and was trying to make conversation. I KNEW that this was a typical situation Mike Caro has spoken about, which means he is strong. But I called anyway and he had Top Set.

Lazare

Primewise wrote:

Tells are never 100% accurate. However they can be used as a guide, as an additional piece of information to add to a story. In addition to your history with the player, betting patterns it gives you a better picture. When you are faced with a very difficult decision , a tell can confirm what you concluded by the betting, or it can provoke you to reconsider.

I've read that typically players will not flinch when they are bluffing, for fear of giving away a tell. When players talk to you they are not afraid and are trying to provoke curiousity and provoke a call.

I was faced with another tough decision a few weeks ago when I had AA on a low flop. The opponent massively over-raised me on the flop, and then proceded to chat to me. The guy even said "you have aces right?" and was trying to make conversation. I KNEW that this was a typical situation Mike Caro has spoken about, which means he is strong. But I called anyway and he had Top Set.

Mike Caro writes comedy, not poker advice.
You are right, a tell should only be used as back up when you've already got a strong read from betting patterns. Too much emphasis is put on them though, and I blame Caro, and his joke book.

I'll often talk when I want a fold, or freeze up when I want a call, and it works great against people that have read the book of tells and didn't laugh.

Primewise

A lot of the Stuff in his book is wishy washy, but there definitely is some stuff I have witnessed in Live play that is true.

Also, one thing to realise is that Tells are very dependant on the person. Its very valuable to remember how somebody acts when they hold the nuts, and are waiting for a call.


Take two people who act differently with the nuts:
Player A is quiet with the nuts, and is chatty/acting when they bluff.
The opposite might be true for player B.

What allows you to contrast your read/instinct is an ability to remember and CONTRAST certain behaviours.

In the situation above, I had only 5 hours history with this player, so I didn't have too many situations to refer back to. However his “Peekaboo” act and walking around are supposed to be a sign of strength for most people. I am wondering whether other people have come across this behaviour when somebody is bluffing?

Shadowless

Maybe he has a J and thinks he's free rolling. Might explain his confidence.
I call here anyway.

valor

call not close

bops

mike caro would correctly deduct what the player wants him to do and do the opposite - ie he appears to be stong, but is he acting? - tbh you'd have to be there to figure that one out

i find it very amusing the amount of people who belittle the powers of tells/player reads in poker - people who discount/underestimate them should stick to internet poker and focus on position, ranges and betting patterns

The Scrapper

Mike Caro probably woulda rang Doyle Brunson....but since you dont have Doyle's number....I GUESS YOUR FOOKED :):)

Primewise

What actually happened:

I caved in and called. He flipped over Q8 (two pair on the flop… house on the river)

Mike Caro would have folded.

:mad:

RoundTower

what mike caro would do