[Article] 23% drop in road deaths linked to random breath testing

Victor

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0605/roadsafety.html

23% drop in road deaths linked to testing
Tuesday, 5 June 2007 22:11

The number of people being killed on Irish roads has dropped by almost a quarter since mandatory breath testing was introduced last July.

Figures released by the Road Safety Authority show that there were 80 fewer deaths in the 11-month period since it was introduced.

274 people died on roads in Ireland in the last 11 months, while 354 lost their lives in the previous 11 months.

In a statement, Noel Brett, CEO of the Road Safety Authority, said it was clear that the mandatory testing, together with awareness campaigns and a greater Garda presence, had 'contributed significantly' to the number of lives saved.

However, Brian Farrell of the National Safety Council said there was no room for complacency.

GuanYin

What a load of bollox. You can't say anything about such statistics. In 2005 the road deaths were around the 400 mark, so if you were to go by this report, they fell by roughly 12% for no reason at all from 2005 to 2006.

Crap reporting. Give it 2-3 years and then see how it goes.

seamus

psi wrote:

What a load of bollox. You can't say anything about such statistics. In 2005 the road deaths were around the 400 mark, so if you were to go by this report, they fell by roughly 12% for no reason at all from 2005 to 2006.

Afair, there were a number of new penalty point offences added to the list in 2006 which would have a caused a brief but significant improvement in crash stats.

In the absence of any other changes to the way people drive in the last 12 months, I think it's a reasonable link to make.

OTK

This is the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.

The implication of the news story is that drink driving was reduced by the new testing regime and was the major cause of the reduction in accidents. No evidence for this theory is presented. We might find evidence of this assertion if we reviewed the blood alcohol levels in drivers in fatal accidents for the time following the introduction of testing and compared it with the levels beforehand. A report on incidence of alcohol use in fatal road acccidents was carried out in 2003 (37% of fatal accidents involved drivers with blood alcohol >20mg/l)
http://www.rsa.ie/NEWS/upload/File/DrBedfordsPresentation.pdf

At the time of the report, not every fatal road accident was followed by blood alchol level testing and one would hope that one day the state will collect this kind of data comprehensively. Not having accurate measurements of the causes of road fatalities, makes it hard to formulate and prioritise policies that might reduce our road death rates to those of the UK, Sweden or The Netherlands.

Victor

There would appear to be at least some link between measures taken (extra garda resources, random testing, extra penalty point offences and publicity) and the effect, certainly in the short term.

talkingclock

23% drop in road deaths linked to climate change

The number of people being killed on Irish roads has dropped by almost a quarter since radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is the primary cause of global warming.

Figures released by the Road Safety Authority show that there were 80 fewer deaths in the 11-month period since the climate started to change.

274 people died on roads in Ireland in the last 11 months, while 354 lost their lives in the previous 11 months.

In a statement, Peter Pepper, CEO of the State Propaganda Authority, said it was clear that the climate change, together with Sean-Nos singing in Donegal and a greater methan pollution caused by farting sheeps in Clare, had 'contributed significantly' to the number of lives saved.

However, Bobby Boop of the National Drinking Council said there was no room for complacency.

==================
What a load of bollix!

GuanYin

seamus wrote:

Afair, there were a number of new penalty point offences added to the list in 2006 which would have a caused a brief but significant improvement in crash stats.

In the absence of any other changes to the way people drive in the last 12 months, I think it's a reasonable link to make.

Errr no, the record high was 2001 at over 410 deaths.

There were far less the following 3 years until 2005.

If you're going to look at such an issue you don'y compare a year by year basis.

Notif you want to say anything sensible.

If you want a blurb that you can use to appease the feeble minded masses, on the other hand......

seamus

psi wrote:

Errr no, the record high was 2001 at over 410 deaths.

There were far less the following 3 years until 2005.

Errr...I didn't make any comments in regards to "record highs" or other decreases in other years.

Although the sample is reasonably small, it's fair to say that if X people are killed in a given year, and then 25% less are killed the following year (for example), then that's more than just an incidental swing in figures.

My point was that your "no reason at all" could be attributed to the introduction of certain new penalty points offences in 2006. We've seen that introduction of new penalties or methods of enforcement tends to cause a bit of a dip in road deaths. Then people forget about them when nobody bothers to enforce them.

Penalty Points were introduced in 2002, and coupled with a slight increase in Garda visibility and enforcement, may have been the cause of the decline you note from 2001 - 2005.

As I say, in the absence of any other factors - it's a reasonable link to make. These are statistically significant changes, not just slight deviations.

On the other hand, I agree completely that press statements like these are mostly blurb. "Pat us on the back, aren't we doing a great job" releases which don't really have a whole pile of substance.

Incidentally, if they actually released some solid figures with substance, it would far more for their public image.

Niall1234

psi wrote:

Errr no, the record high was 2001 at over 410 deaths.

Falacy. In 1972 there were 640 deaths on the road. Considering there were about 1/5 the number of cars on the road back then I think 410 looks small.

Throughout the 1970's and 80's road deaths per year were always over 400.

is_that_so

Any reduction is deaths is always welcome.
Numbers aside, what is clear from that report is that enforcement works and can affect attitudes - e.g. drink driving. Nevertheless the daily adventures on our roads show that we have a very long way to go.

Niall1234

Of course. Lower the better.

I'm just peeved at the way our media spins lies just because road deaths are the flavour of the month.

1. We are not at an all time high in the last few years for road deaths. Its completely the opposite.
2. We do not have the highest road deaths per population in Europe excluding Greece. We are in the middle to low on the table. We have a lower rate than Spain, Italy, Austria and even Belgium.
3. "We are continually above the EU average of deaths per population." Complete falacy. Since 2001, we have always been below the EU average.

robfitz

There has been an decrease in the number of road deaths, but is this due to the random breath testing or is it due to the perception of active enforcement improving drive compliance.

I've collected and graphed collision stats from the garda website for almost two years. Every group seems to be down in deaths except motorcyclists and pedal cyclists on this time last year.

Seth Brundle

I haven't seen a RBT checkpoint since October IIRC.
Do random checkpoints still occur?

Victor

Victor wrote:

There would appear to be at least some link between measures taken (extra garda resources, random testing, extra penalty point offences and publicity) and the effect, certainly in the short term.

I've added a few more years. The last year (Green Line - up to May 2007) is generally quite good (except July and March).

Both the initial introduction and the expansion had some effect for several months, although it gradually wears off.