5/10 vs squeeze?

valor

What do you guys think of this spot? I found it very very awkward

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter, Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB ($1408.00)
Hero ($922.00)
MP ($1170.75)
Button ($1428.00)
SB ($2274.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Td, Ts.
Hero raises to $35, MP calls $35, Button calls $35, SB calls $30, BB raises to $206,

Main Villain is 21/16/3.67 datamined, no history
Callers in between are 48/24/2, 20/15/2 and 21/17/3

robinlacey

ugh,i hate this situation.

none of your options are great...the fact that you raised from UTG makes me somewhat inclined to fold-obviously its a great spot for a squeeze what with all the callers,but at the same time i tend to give him a lot more credit when he squeezes against an UTG raise than in any other situation.

pushing isn't really a great option either,since if you are pushing his calling range will have you crushed,and we've already established that you're not even in great shape against his range as it is.

it might seem too nitty to fold here at first glance,but its not like they can see what you folded,so i might just write off the 35 raise and move on,hopefully next time the situations comes up you will have some reads on the player but given that you don't know much about him i reckon there's no harm folding.

BigCityBanker

Id be interested in reading the responses to this but i think i can easily kiss the 35 farewell.

Lafortezza

Easy answer is just to fold, gets you out of an awkward position with 3 players to act behind you. Do you think the BB would be squeezing 4 players with a bag of bollox?

robinlacey

lafortezza wrote:

Do you think the BB would be squeezing 4 players with a bag of bollox?

the way the games are going these days its far from impossible.

however i think with no reads here discretion is the better part of valor!

Chucky the tree

Seems an easy fold too me.

phantom_lord

i really hate folding in these spots, but the hands going to be so awkward to play that it seems like the only option.

mdwexford

well flat calling and shoving are both bad imo

i suppose 4 betting to about 420 and folding to a shove is an option

i fold though

valor

Can someone pick a hole in these maths please:

Theres 360 in the pot. If he calls when I shove, pot will be 1949.

I think his calling range is QQ+ and AK. against that range I have 36.4% equity and will win on average $710

I started with 922, so to breakeven he has to fold 210/360 = 58% of the time

sikes

I would assume his calling range is prob JJ+,AK, so I think he needs to fold 45% of the time. I dont play this high, however, I would be surprised if they squeeze this often.

EDIT: sorry didnt see your reply. Will mess around with it now.

valor

how do you get that 45%? I dont really understand the maths of how to work that out properly, if someone could explain it id appreciate it

sikes

Pot:346
Your Stack: 887

Stand to win when called 887+35*5

EV No Fold = =SUM(0.66*(-887)+0.34*(1062)) = -224.34

+EV = =SUM(0.4*(346)+0.6*(-224.34)) = 3.8

So if he folds 40% of the time its +EV, i think thats right.

This is assuming his range is QQ+,AK

So in the first one, EV No fold, we can just work out our equity against his range. We have 34% equity, so 34% of the time we win the size of our stack and the 35*5, his raise is included in our stack size, if ya get me.

Now we can just throw the EV of that play into a second equation and see how many times we need to pick up the 346 pot without a showdown to make it a +EV play, so in this case its 40%.

valor

how did you get the 40% figure? trial and error?

sikes

yeah exactly! I started to write a program to do this kind of stuff for me, but i got bored of it so i just use an excel sheet and poker stove. Might try and get the program written over the summer and will prob post it here if i do.

valor

cool, thanks

can u see whats wrong with teh quick math I did?

sikes

valor wrote:

Can someone pick a hole in these maths please:

Theres 360 in the pot. If he calls when I shove, pot will be 1949.

I think his calling range is QQ+ and AK. against that range I have 36.4% equity and will win on average $710

I started with 922, so to breakeven he has to fold 210/360 = 58% of the time

well you shouldnt consider that you started with 922, becuase the raise has its own +EV so you dont have to consider it in this spot. So you just consider your current stack size, which is 887, the pot is actually 346 too

To get the ratio between the two isnt correct because for every 1% of the time you get an extra 346 you lose 1% of the time you get it all in. I think thats why it didnt work out, though I could be wrong on this, I have never worked it out that way.

Also my calculations are off a tiny bit becuase my stove decided to not include AKs!

sikes

=SUM(0.635*(-887)+0.365*(1062)) = -175.62
=SUM((0.34*(346)+0.66*(-175.62))) = 1.73

So now you need him to fold 34% when you have 36.5% equity, AKo,AKs,QQ+

Goodluck2me

theres a discussion on this here..

Rickyroma

goodluck2me wrote:

theres a discussion on this here..

Cheers goodluck, having clicked that link and then another in the thread Ijust spent 2 hours frantically scribbling probability questions regarding Bayes theorem. Anyone with any interest in maths should be warned...