Good NLH tourney squeeze play spot?? Opinions please....

Flipper

I don't have the hand history but here's how it went (stack sizes are approx)

Me (BB): 105,000
SB: 80,000
Button: 80,000

Blinds are 2k/4k and it's folded to the button. He's been raising almost every orbit from late position and he knows that he's been getting on my nerves (i've been going into the tank on some decisions). The SB has just come to the table.

He raises to 14k, the SB calls and I'm in the BB with A4.

Is this a good spot to push all in?

Tar.Aldarion

I'd fold and let them tangle. If you think you can make em fold, by all means go all-in.

58o

It looks ok, but it would be nice to have more info on the small blinds tendencies before i do something like this.

mewso

Looks liks a great spot to fold imo.

nicnicnic

Jam it "you" usually hit a straight here if you run into a hand

5starpool

I would almost always fold here (as would you normally I presume). How and ever, once you decide to squeeze, the one thing I would not be comfortable with in this situation is that you have not had a real chance to assess the SB's play enough to know whether this is liable to work on him.

Obviously any squeeze is subject to getting called by premium hands, and that is part of the risk, it is when you are called by 88-JJ and AQ-AJ that this is proven to be a terrible spot in retrospect.

busted flush

i would def fold here dude there already one caller ! why go to war here your a lover not a fighter!

Hitman Actual

I'm not really a fan, unless the other two fold a lot. And if they're calling wider, then A4 is at the bottom of what you should be pushing with (and probably outside it). Marginal at best, I think.

AmarilloFats

I think it's an ok spot to push.
The situation is all about the players - you only know about 1 of them. You are ahead of his range here - and Usually sb wont be able to call.

Some say they prefer not to push here w/ Ax because you are frequently drawing to 3 outs when your Ax is called!!
So KQ - K9 QJ, TJ 9T > Ace rag..... The point being you want to be a 2:1 dog when called not a 4:1
Then again you're happy to have Ax whrn he (rarelY) turns over JJ+

Bandana boy

I think it is a really good spot to squeeze the original raiser as he would need a pretty premium hand to call you here not knowing what the sb is at,
but the down side is you also do not know what sb's range is here

So with that weighing heavily on my mind I find a fold

Flipper

My thoughts were that the button can be raising with almost any two here - certainly 50% of starting hands. The SB's hand most likely has no showdown valve (small pair, JQ suited etc)... Aty least that's the way it appears to me. I think my cards here are almost of no importance except that an Ace may have some value if he made a tiltcall with something like KQ (not likely though). I'm likely to push with literally any two if I think the spot was good enough. Would deeper stacks make this a "must-do" play ever?

Tar.Aldarion

I would much much rather go with 910 than ax, a lot of the time you will jsut be dominated and lose your stack on a steal.

valor

i like a shove here

bops

the fact that the SB has only come to the table, and therefore doesn't realise that the button is doing this alot, would lead me to fold

if he was there longer then i really like the squeeze play

i think he may call with 99 for eg thinking he's more than priced in for a race with you

Hitman Actual

I misread the OP, I thought it was a 3-handed final table decision. It doesn't look as close as I originally thought, but how often you win uncontested is still very important.

5starpool

Flipper wrote:

My thoughts were that the button can be raising with almost any two here - certainly 50% of starting hands.

Agreed.

Flipper wrote:

The SB's hand most likely has no showdown valve (small pair, JQ suited etc)... Aty least that's the way it appears to me.

What caused you to think this at the time? If you come to new table and are in the SB's position here do you call button raises from an unknown with this range?

Flipper wrote:

I think my cards here are almost of no importance except that an Ace may have some value if he made a tiltcall with something like KQ (not likely though). I'm likely to push with literally any two if I think the spot was good enough. Would deeper stacks make this a "must-do" play ever?

This the whole point of a squeezeplay I think, but it does have to be targeted correctly. You don't want someone who will call you light with Ax or a medium pair as you are in bad shape against them. Even allowing for the times that they will call with KQ or the likes this does not make up for it I believe (this occasion with your bad A at least).

I am not saying this is a bad move as this is a great way to pick up chips, but you almost never want to get called in this spot.

sikes

I would shove especially if they are suited, I would have thought if the stacks were shallower it would make it a must do.

Hitman Actual

sikes wrote:

I would have thought if the stacks were shallower it would make it a must do.

This is a good point; I don't understand why deeper stacks make this a "must do".

Flipper

Well surely the deeper the stacks, the greater the fold equity and the narrower of the hand criteria of our opponents. After all, we WANT everyone to pass... I'm open to correction on this....

sikes

Well i doubt the average players calling range is changing correctly when we have 70k effective stacks as opposed to 80k, although I guess the SB flat call becomes more dangerous.

When we are deeper we are risking more to win the same. We might have slightly better FE, but the times we get called wipes out that extra equity.

Hitman Actual

Flipper wrote:

Well surely the deeper the stacks, the greater the fold equity and the narrower of the hand criteria of our opponents. After all, we WANT everyone to pass... I'm open to correction on this....

There should be a switch-over point regarding the stack sizes where deeper means the push actually becomes -CEV. I agree that you get called a lot less when stacks are deeper though. But the maths would show that the profit in the hand comes from the dead money in the pot. As the ratio of stack sizes to dead money gets very big, the push becomes less profitable, to the point where it will be unprofitable.

But the more I think about it, the more I like your push here. I would just want to very sure of getting it through uncalled, so I mightn't do it with limited info on the SB.

Goodluck2me

bops wrote:

the fact that the SB has only come to the table, and therefore doesn't realise that the button is doing this alot, would lead me to fold

if he was there longer then i really like the squeeze play

i think he may call with 99 for eg thinking he's more than priced in for a race with you

i disagree, if the SB knows the button is raising light then he knows we are more likely to squeeze. if the SB thinks the OR could have a legit hand and flipper pushes anyway, then the SB must narrow Flippers range hugely => more Folding equity.

Sirtoyou

people are missing the point that the fact you have an ace is irrelavent 72 off is just as good if you feel its profitable probably better because you are likely dominated if salled with a4
go for it kieran
ps see you at the festival(do you still want my callaways?)

SIR

cardshark202

This is a perfect spot to squeeze. A4 is a good hand to have here too as it reduces the chances that you are screwed.

Captain Tom

shoving here is fine.

mewso

How often does the SB fold here?
How often does the SB call with a hand worse than ours?

Flipper

Like most of you, my main concern was for the SB's holdings. What do you think he can 14,000 with and then pass? Personally, I think he'll push before me with any hand that he can call off his stack with. I'm much more worried about the SB than the button.

I suppose what I'm trying to ascertain is what blind/stack ratio is optimal for this move?? I see what Lenny Leonard is saying but I don't think it applies to this situation.

strewelpeter

From what I've been seeing in the late stages of online multis its become pretty standard to flat call a raise in the SB with a strong holding in this kind of situation in the (fairly high) expectation that you are going to get squeezed by a good player.

That doesn't mean that its not a very attractive spot to shove but without info...Meh

Hitman Actual

Flipper wrote:

I suppose what I'm trying to ascertain is what blind/stack ratio is optimal for this move?? I see what Lenny Leonard is saying but I don't think it applies to this situation.

You need an idea of what range the SB will call with in relation to blind/stack sizes, otherwise the optimal point is hard to work out. Like you say, at 200BBs his calling range should be a lot tighter than at 20BBs. But the maths here is simple: it's related to the probability that opponents fold, and your equity when you do get called. Both are easy to work out using pokerStove.

But I'm almost certain that the deeper the stacks are, the less profitable this push is (I just don't have time to prove it).

BTW, what happened anyway?

Hitman Actual

Here's the maths for the squeeze here, fill in the unknowns. Assume that the original raiser folds, which is valid seeing as we're discussing the squeeze play:

CEV = (1-P)*(32K) + P*[Q*(98K) + (1-Q)*80K)]

where
(1-P) = probability everyone folds and you pick up the dead money (32K);
P = probability you get called;
Q = your equity when you get called, 98K is the amount you win;
1-Q = the SB's equity in the pot, 80K is the amount you lose.

To work out "P", just stick the opponents hand ranges into PokerStove and see what the percentage is given as. Then run the range against A4 and you'll get Q.

Edit: To work out P, it may be better to work out the ratio of what the SB calls the original raise with, to what he then calls your push with. This will be more accurate, but the first way should be relatively close.

Flipper

Lenny, I just felt that it looked like he was calling 12k to win 42k preflop (good odds for a lot of holdings) and that he had anything significant, he would have snapped off the raise himself.

Anyway, this was from the Sunday million this week. I shoved, button called and the SB folded. He had AK and I never improved and more importantly, never recovered.

Hitman Actual

Flipper wrote:

Anyway, this was from the Sunday million this week. I shoved, button called and the SB folded. He had AK and I never improved and more importantly, never recovered.

Very unlucky that the aggressive dude woke up with a hand so. On a quick scan of the figures, pushing is fine here.