Are we looking at a minority Government?

JerkyBoy

Since my last post was deleted for some reason I'll post under a new subject.
The topic is valid...and is not covered by other subjects.
Deleting would say a lot about the moderation of this folder.

So:
Since the revelations today from the Tribunal, is the only way forward now a minority FF or Rainbow Government?

Surely the possibility of a FF coalition with Greens or Labour is gone now...unless Bertie steps down and Cowan takes over.

And surely the PD's and independents cannot pretend this matter doesn't exist. Mary I think has less time for this shenanigans than McDowell had.

Therefore, it looks like we now have no possible majoiry Government options going forward.

I predict either Cowan takes over and takes PDs\indos with him, or we have a FF minority led by Bertie, or a Rainbow minority led by FG\LAB\GREEN, possibly with a couple of indos.

gurramok

Bertie can't bank on Bev Flynn either.

RTE are due to goto court to get their €2m she owes them. If she don't cough up, she'll be declared bankrupt and bankrupts cannot stand in Dail.
Either that or her multimillionaire developer husband coughs up and rescues Bertie!

Maybe Harney will rejoin FF, put maybe Gregory or McGrath as Ceann Comhairle adding another 2 FF votes(previous CC) to 80, then Healy Rae onside but they need another 2, do a deal with Gregory or McGrath, that leaves 1.
That 1 could be the remaining PD.

Talk about tight!!

Our man in Havana

Talk about instability.

flogen

Yes - things aren't looking as clear cut as they might have before.

The Greens will be anxious about going into partnership with a Government that has destroyed its last two partners - and one that could still be rocked by scandal (just read Ciaran Cuffe's blog). Remember that it was the Green's who shouted loudest about Bertie's finances and they take the toughest line on ethics and corporate donations etc.

The other likely option of PD and Inds has its own issues too - firstly Beverly Flynn's potential bankruptcy and secondly the difficutly Bertie will have in paying off Tony Gregory when they share a constituency... amongst other things.

Chakar

Well more specifically a minority cabinet government.

ninebeanrows

Surely if it is proven that Bertie has did the things that he denied and has lied, then a new election must take place. Bertie Ahern's personal matters were of vital importance to the shape of the lead up to the election, when Bertie cleared things up FF support shot back up, if he lied, he lied to the people and changed the path of the election.

If he is found guilty i demand a Re-Election and i am sure lots more will too.

Pherekydes

Weathercheck wrote:

Surely if it is proven that Bertie has did the things that he denied and has lied, then a new election must take place. Bertie Ahern's personal matters were of vital importance to the shape of the lead up to the election, when Bertie cleared things up FF support shot back up, if he lied, he lied to the people and changed the path of the election.

If he is found guilty i demand a Re-Election and i am sure lots more will too.

Hee hee. Ya didn't vote for him/his party based on his spin, did ya? :eek:

gurramok

FF need 6 to add to 78, just cant see it with PD/Ind.
PD -2
Healy-Rae - 1
McGrath - 1 (deal)
Gregory - 1 (deal)

Flynn - bankrupt
Lowry - No-no

Result - 83 = hung dail!!

When Flynn is kicked out, resulting by-election could decide outcome of election if a real FF candidate get that seat or Mayo could help Kenny a weeny bit!

Else new FF+PD+2Ind do a sneaky deal with SF to abstain hence 'stable govt'
OR
RTE quietly do deal for Flynn to repay €2.84m over 40 years like one of those generation mortgages to help FF stay in power

And in the mix is they might need someone to take CC from O'Hanlon.

Better result for stability is Greens, they may make FF clean up their act.:D

flogen

Weathercheck wrote:

Surely if it is proven that Bertie has did the things that he denied and has lied, then a new election must take place. Bertie Ahern's personal matters were of vital importance to the shape of the lead up to the election, when Bertie cleared things up FF support shot back up, if he lied, he lied to the people and changed the path of the election.

If he is found guilty i demand a Re-Election and i am sure lots more will too.

Well maybe a by-election in Dublin Central - after all, while FF were happy for people to vote "for Bertie" in other constituencies it wasn't a presidential election.

The only reason there'd be a new election called is if no-one will deal with FF as a result, they cannot operate in minority and the FG/Lab/Green/PD/Ind hyper-rainbow disintegrates too.

gurramok wrote:

FF need 6 to add to 78, just cant see it with PD/Ind.
PD -2
Healy-Rae - 1
McGrath - 1 (deal)
Gregory - 1 (deal)

Flynn - bankrupt
Lowry - No-no

Result - 83 = hung dail!!

When Flynn is kicked out, resulting by-election could decide outcome of election if a real FF candidate get that seat or Mayo could help Kenny a weeny bit!

Else new FF+PD+2Ind do a sneaky deal with SF to abstain hence 'stable govt'
OR
RTE quietly do deal for Flynn to repay €2.84m over 40 years like one of those generation mortgages to help FF stay in power

And in the mix is they might need someone to take CC from O'Hanlon.

Better result for stability is Greens, they may make FF clean up their act.:D

Eh - 83 is a majority as long as they get a Ceann Comhlaire from the opposition, as they did in 1997... then it'd be:

FF/PD/Ind - 83
FG/Lab/Green/SF/remaining Ind - 82

And if Beverly Flynn is declared bankrupt and a by-election is held it could be rebalanced either way again.

Victor

flogen wrote:

And if Beverly Flynn is declared bankrupt and a by-election is held it could be rebalanced either way again.

Mayo is FG territory - they got 58% of first preferences in the election.

That said, by-elections often see a seat revert to its "owner's" party.

flogen

Victor wrote:

Mayo is FG territory - they got 58% of first preferences in the election.

That said, by-elections often see a seat revert to its "owner's" party.

True - I wouldn't bet against FG in a Mayo by-election, but at the same time you can never be certain