Result not an endorsement of outgoing govt, also not a rejection of alternative

JerkyBoy

What happened is that the outgoing Government parties losts 8 seats and the alternative Government gained 20 seats.

That shows a major shift in public opinion away from the outgoing Government to the Alternative. Just not enought to get them elected, but very close.

The outgoing Government has been given 80 seats by the electorate and the Alternative has been given 77. Only 3 seats and a few hundred votes separated the two.

So this is not a major endorsement of the outgoing, or a major rejection of the alternative.

The country is pretty much split 50-50 on them, with the outgoing Govt. edging out.

Support has been 44.3% for FF\PD and 42.1% for FG\LAB\GREEN.

This election cannot be described as a major victory for the outgoing crowd.
At the moment they still have to scrounge around to come up with a new Government.

That said, I also don't think the new Govt. will last 5 years.
Especially with our Taoiseach being investigated by a Tribunal (another proud moment for our country), and the economic downturn times ahead.

FF could not deliver on their 2002 promises when they had unlimited resources so I don't see how they are going to deliver when we hit harder times.
The question to FF should now be:
"So which manifesto do you plan to implement when you form a Government?
Your 2007 or 2002 one?"

Attractive Nun

Give it up, it's an unabashed victory for Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil. To be just 6 seats short of an overall majority, in a PR system, after 10 years in government is nothing short of a ringing endorsement. The only real story here is Fine Gael's recovery of support to something more like their natural %, at the expense of the smaller parties, especially the PDs. Beyond that, it might well be a rejection of the PDs, but certainly not Fianna Fáil.

JerkyBoy

Never said it was a rejection of FF, or not an endorsement of FF.

I said it wasn't an endorsement of the outgoing Government which is true.
They were not returned to power convincingly, and the alternative was given a near equal share of the vote.

A few hundred votes could have given us an alternative Government.

So what I say is accurate...as is what you say about Bertie.
It's very good for him.

Very impressive that our Taoiseach can lie to us and still command that level of support.
I commend him for his cunning and deviousness...CJ was right abouth him.

The losers in this election were the pd's and the independents.

Fine Gael have regained 3 seats less than they had prior to their wipe out in 02-thats creditable yes but a comparative disaster given that their seats up to 02 would have been considered as disappointing.

FF have lost 3 seats which is the same number as FG failed to regain so as to equal the number FG had prior to 02.
FF actually marginally increased their 02 share of the vote.

Labour stayed static.

So what we have is nearly 70% of the country voting for conservative parties and the left wing parties squeezed into a tiny minority.

Attractive nuns description seems more accurate tbh.

I mean look at it in more detail,the only county with a major FG vote (>50%) is mayo.
Contrast that with Biffo's 19,000 votes,Willy O Dea's 19k also and the two mar dhea un popular ministers Roche and Cullen topping the poll

InFront

Tristrame wrote:

The losers in this election were the pd's and the independents.
Fine Gael have regained 3 seats less than they had prior to their wipe out in 02-thats creditable yes but a comparative disaster given that their seats up to 02 would have been considered as disappointing.

Bit of a contradiction there isn't it? You're either going by 2002 results or 1997 results. If you want to go by 1997 results, the independents are only down by one seat, so they've remained pretty much the same. The PDs have just lost 2 seats.

However, the best approach would be to acknowledge that there was an intervening election which was an enormous disaster for Fine Gael, which the party have now come back from as well as could ever be realistically expected. FG were not entering this election looking for 45 new seats, that would be completely impossible. But over ten years, it is something to work towards.

InFront

InFront wrote:

Bit of a contradiction there isn't it? You're either going by 2002 results or 1997 results. If you want to go by 1997 results, the independents are only down by one seat, so they've remained pretty much the same. The PDs have just lost 2 seats.

Well the bit you are saying is a contradiction is entirely in relation to FG and is an accurate reflection.

However, the best approach would be to acknowledge that there was an intervening election which was an enormous disaster for Fine Gael, which the party have now come back from as well as could ever be realistically expected. FG were not entering this election looking for 45 new seats, that would be completely impossible. But over ten years, it is something to work towards.

I wouldnt say FG could ever gain 83 seats on their own.