Final Results. Let the negotiations begin

Akrasia · 27-05-2007 9:36am #1

Fianna Fáil : 78 (including O Hanlon)
Fine Gael : 51
Labour : 20
PDs : 2
Greens : 6
Sinn Féin : 4
Inds : 5

FF need 6 to reach the 84 seats required for a majority.

FG + Labour + Greens = 77. they need 7 to get a majority.

Akrasia · 27-05-2007 9:39am

It looks to me like the only stable government is FF + Labour. Otherwise it's FF and greens or FF PDs and a bunch of crooks (lowry and Flinn) and left wing independents.

I can't see the rainbow negotiating a government without sinn fein

gandalf · 27-05-2007 9:40am

What about FF&FG, for the national interest they should get together. I am sick of Labour being lumped in with the developers party all the time.

Akrasia · 27-05-2007 9:43am

gandalf wrote:

What about FF&FG, for the national interest they should get together. I am sick of Labour being lumped in with the developers party all the time.

It's possible, but Bertie has already said he isn't enthusiastic about sharing with labour because it would require sacrificing too many cabinet posts, imagine how many they'd have to give up if they were sharing with FG?

gandalf · 27-05-2007 9:46am

But its for the national good Akrasia, doesn't Bertie have the national interest in heart :rolleyes:

joolsveer · 27-05-2007 9:50am

Akrasia wrote:

It looks to me like the only stable government is FF + Labour. Otherwise it's FF and greens or FF PDs and a bunch of crooks (lowry and Flinn) and left wing independents.

If anyone goes into government with FF they must lower their standards. FF is the party which ignored planning to build housing estates all over County Dublin. Ray Burke's mates haven't gone away. FF is still the traditional home for corruption.

Marshy · 27-05-2007 9:51am

gandalf wrote:

But its for the national good Akrasia, doesn't Bertie have the national interest in heart :rolleyes:

Thats just stupid, national interest my arse. How can you say that? Are you being facetious?

is_that_so · 27-05-2007 9:52am

Akrasia wrote:

It looks to me like the only stable government is FF + Labour. Otherwise it's FF and greens or FF PDs and a bunch of crooks (lowry and Flinn) and left wing independents.

I can't see the rainbow negotiating a government without sinn fein

Well there was a Tribune story today which may influence matters. Labour will probably go off and lick its wounds. One of the biggest problems they seem to have is the age profile of their TDs, Joanna Tuffy aside. FF/PDs variation I imagine at this stage seeing as Brian Cowen doesn't need a wash.

RTE action may leave Beverley Flynn bankrupt
Justine McCarthy

THE delicate arithmetic of Bertie Ahern's new government could unravel within weeks if one of the Independent TDs making up the numbers is declared a bankrupt by the High Court. Last Thursday, lawyers for RTE filed a petition to have Mayo TD Beverley Flynn declared a bankrupt for failing to pay the legal costs of her unsuccessful libel action against the broadcaster. The application is listed for hearing in the High Court on 11 June.

Under the Electoral Act 1992, an undischarged bankrupt is disqualified from membership of Dail Eireann.

Flynn sued RTE over broadcasts in 1998 reporting that she had assisted tax evasion by setting up bogus non-resident accounts while working for National Irish Bank. She lost the High Court case in 2001 and costs estimated at 1.5m were awarded against her.

According to court documents filed by RTE last week, she owes the station 2.84m in taxed costs, including interest, for the longest-running libel case in Irish legal history. Under legal rules, her name has not been published in the court list of scheduled cases.

Voters in Mayo were unaware of the pending petition when they re-elected her.

Colonel Sanders · 27-05-2007 9:52am

gandalf wrote:

But its for the national good Akrasia, doesn't Bertie have the national interest in heart :rolleyes:

ha ha, good one!!!

Nice idea but will never happen. Surely FF/Greens is a serious option if they can come to an agreement. As stated above they would have to sacrifice a lot of positions if they were to share with labour. Not counting out FF/Lab but surely FF's preferred option would be FF/Greens.

If only the PDs had held another seat or two.....

gandalf · 27-05-2007 9:52am

I am being sarcastic, its obvious that FF and Bertie have no ones interests in heart but their own and their "friends" in the tent at the Galway races.

LuckyLloyd · 27-05-2007 9:53am

The Greens now have a huge opportunity if they can make the right noises while negotiating with FF. Though FF, the PDs and independants worked without too much trouble from 1997 - 2002. So it is a definate possibillity.

FF may be willing to stretch themselves in order to ensure that Harney keeps the poisoned chalice of the health portfolio - and entertain the demands of Independants like Gregory and Healy Rae.

Colonel Sanders · 27-05-2007 9:53am

gandalf wrote:

I am being sarcastic, its obvious that FF and Bertie have no ones interests in heart but their own and their "friends" in the tent at the Galway races.

I know, I was laughing at your sarcastic 'nations best interests' comment.

gandalf · 27-05-2007 9:56am

Colonel Sanders wrote:

I know, I was laughing at your sarcastic 'nations best interests' comment.

I know you did I was commenting for Marshy's benefit, he looked like he was getting worked up about it

Heinrich · 27-05-2007 9:57am

RTE action may leave Beverley Flynn bankrupt
Justine McCarthy

THE delicate arithmetic of Bertie Ahern's new government could unravel within weeks if one of the Independent TDs making up the numbers is declared a bankrupt by the High Court. Last Thursday, lawyers for RTE filed a petition to have Mayo TD Beverley Flynn declared a bankrupt for failing to pay the legal costs of her unsuccessful libel action against the broadcaster. The application is listed for hearing in the High Court on 11 June.

Under the Electoral Act 1992, an undischarged bankrupt is disqualified from membership of Dail Eireann.

Flynn sued RTE over broadcasts in 1998 reporting that she had assisted tax evasion by setting up bogus non-resident accounts while working for National Irish Bank. She lost the High Court case in 2001 and costs estimated at 1.5m were awarded against her.

According to court documents filed by RTE last week, she owes the station 2.84m in taxed costs, including interest, for the longest-running libel case in Irish legal history. Under legal rules, her name has not been published in the court list of scheduled cases.

Voters in Mayo were unaware of the pending petition when they re-elected her.

That is a non runner. All she needs is a DIG-OUT and friends will be there.:D Old party customs will not die.

gandalf · 27-05-2007 9:59am

All she has to do is fly to Manchester chat to a few people and they will have a whip around.

Fire a call into Drumcondra Bev I'm sure someone there will have advice for ya.

Colonel Sanders · 27-05-2007 9:59am

Heinrich wrote:

That is a non runner. All she needs is a DIG-OUT and friends will be there.:D Old party customs will not die.

LOL!!!:p

Marshy · 27-05-2007 10:04am

gandalf wrote:

I know you did I was commenting for Marshy's benefit, he looked like he was getting worked up about it

My apologies I thought for one moment you were being serious about the possibility of a FF/FG coalition and that it'd be in the national interest. :eek:

gandalf · 27-05-2007 10:06am

Oh as a Labour supporter I am deadly serious about why people are not talking about FF/FG as an option and going on as if the only coalition should be FF/Labour.

It makes more sense for the Centre Right parties to hop into bed with each other. Of course they will continue their 85 year civil war stand off rather than put the country first.

redspider · 27-05-2007 10:11am

This is the overall result bar some challenges, if any:

Party	2002*	2007	Change
FF	79	78	-1
FG	32	51	+19
Lab	21	20	-1
GP	6	6	 0
SF	5	4	-1
PD	8	2	-6
Oth	15	5	-10

*the outgoing situation at the end of the 29th Dail

As can be seen, a huge swing back to FG, picking off many of the seats that the smaller parties had gained back in 2002, most notably the PD's who have their worst result in their history (I wonder what Des O'Malley thinks), and many Independents.

All the other parties held their position, including FF (who didnt lose as many seats as had been expected), Labour, Green's, SF (all of whom didnt gain).

Here are the seat totals from the following combinations:

FF+PD 80
FF+PD+2Ind 82
FF+GP 84
FF+GP+2Ind 86

FG+Lab+GP 77
FG+Lab+GP+SF 81
FG+Lab+GP+SF+2Ind 83

Its not clear who can form a stable government, but a wide rainbow that includes SF (or maybe an abstaining SF?) is perhaps possible. Also Rory O'Hanlon could be asked to stay on as Ceann Comhairle and may do so as he could turn 'neutral' as well as it likely being his last term.

I'd say Bertie is miffed that the PD's failed so miserably. Just 300 or so more votes may have seen McDowell in and one other would have seen them over the line with some independents such as Healy-Rae and Beverly Flynn (presuming she is not chucked out for bankruptcy) in terms of forming a government.

Who knows, maybe with the addition of Tony Gregory and another independent, this would bring this possible coalition up to 84 and a slim majority.

Its fairly even ......

I'll list the Independents and their slant in another post.

Redspider

Lennoxschips · 27-05-2007 10:17am

The Greens biggest issue is sustainable development. FF is funded by property developers who have destroyed Ireland. Those two parties just don't go together.

Marshy · 27-05-2007 10:18am

Stop with all this putting the country first malarkey. Is there any developed country around the world where the 2 largest parties have joined together? Maybe it would be better but it just wont happen so there's no point talking about it.

Lennoxschips · 27-05-2007 10:20am

The Christian Democrats and Labour, the two largest parties in the Netherlands, are in coalition at the moment.

is_that_so · 27-05-2007 10:20am

Marshy wrote:

Stop with all this putting the country first malarkey. Is there any developed country around the world where the 2 largest parties have joined together? Maybe it would be better but it just wont happen so there's no point taling about it.

Yes currently Germany.

gandalf · 27-05-2007 10:22am

Marshy wrote:

Stop with all this putting the country first malarkey. Is there any developed country around the world where the 2 largest parties have joined together? Maybe it would be better but it just wont happen so there's no point taling about it.

You were saying?

Hector Gilbert · 27-05-2007 10:23am

Marshy wrote:

Stop with all this putting the country first malarkey. Is there any developed country around the world where the 2 largest parties have joined together?

There's the "Grand Coalition" in Germany of the CDU/CSU and the SPD

redspider · 27-05-2007 10:26am

Here are the 5 Indepenents/Others/Non-party members:

Tony Gregory - a real independent candidate for many years now. Worked with FF before, but FF will only call on him again as a last resort and are fearful of how much they would have to 'give away'. Gregory could do a deal with either side, as long as his constituency gets looked after and their issues done. In that light he probably prefers FG+Lab+GP.

Finian McGrath - looks like a real independent but perhaps those that know him might be able to determine if he favours FG, FF or Labour. He comes across very genuine, only a TD since 2002, and has been active in terms of issues such as for the Homeless, unempoloyed and is vefy much a local TD. I have no ida which way he will veer, if any. Thoughts?

Jackie Healy-Rae - well, no need to outline his background. More kirry than many kirry-men. He is FF background and supported them in government in 1997.

Beverly Flynn - well known with an FF background. Kicked out of the FF party. FF is in her blood, and whilst she may have some sour grapes with FF, its unlikely to lead her to vote against them. She could be persuaded to abstain. One twist may be that if she is kicked out of the Dail due to being a bankrupt, and if 2.4m or whatever it is cant be 'collected', then a by-election would likely see a new FG candidate in (Kenny's country) and give FG another seat, and tip the balance in FG's favour !!!

Lowry - was an FGer and still an FGer. Is on record as stating thaht he would support an FG government.

Overall I see the Independents as follows:
FF: 2
FG: 1
available: 2

spanner in the works: Beverly's o/s court costs .....

Interesting ....

Redspider

gandalf · 27-05-2007 10:27am

Marshy wrote:

Stop with all this putting the country first malarkey.

Why should I, thats the rubbish that is being thrown at Labour at the moment. Why not expect two parties that are extremely similar in politics to go into Coalition, its common sense and its logical.

Seth Brundle · 27-05-2007 10:34am

from here

Ahern hints he favours PD/Independents as partners
27/05/2007 - 11:04:27

Bertie Ahern has given his strongest indication yet that he'll seek to form a Government with the PDs and independents.

He isn't ruling out a coalition with the Greens or Labour, but says they are "less likely" options.

With 78 Fianna Fáil seats and the two PD deputies, the Taoiseach will need the support of three independent TDs.

Speaking to Sky News, Bertie Ahern said he has a number of options, including returning with the PDs.

Mr Ahern said: "They have two seats: Mary Harney was elected and her colleague Deputy Grealish in the West of Ireland; and then there are a number of Independents who would be fairly close to my party - there's at least three of those.

"And then, of course, there's the Greens that is another consideration. And probably less likely, but I think some thought will be given to it, the Labour party," he concluded.

Marshy · 27-05-2007 10:35am

I stand corrected, I guess. Dont claim to be an expert on international politics. But the germans arent doing too well for themselves are they?

The fact is that the bitterness between FF and FG is too great so it'd have to be a Rev. Paisley with Gerry x a gazillion to get them agreeing.

gandalf · 27-05-2007 10:43am

Well unfortunately for us the German economy is doing rather well which would suggest to me that coalition is working well. That means more European Central Bank interest rate rises so tough times for the people mortgaged to the hilt here in Ireland.

So bitterness is put before the "national interest" how noble.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/49/20209188.pdf

redspider · 27-05-2007 10:44am

Lennoxschips wrote:

The Christian Democrats and Labour, the two largest parties in the Netherlands, are in coalition at the moment.

That's true, the CDA and the PvdA have diametrically opposed policies. That government may not last very long and it is a strained one, but then the Dutch are used to coalitions as their voting system is more representative of the votes cast.

Ironically, the CDA and the PvdA is a bit like FG and Labour coming together in terms of their ideologies! Or FF + Labour! ;-)

I think Gandalf and Marshy, you are both right. Gandalf is right that it shouldnt only be up to Labour to have to think about going in with FF to form a stable government for the good of the country.

However, FG and FF is not going to happen which is Marshy's point. The numbers dont require it, and although any government formed wont have a large majority, it is possible to form one with a majority or indeed a minority-supported government. Who knows, maybe FF would accept SF abstaining.

There's a lot of options possible .... and imaginative thinking and flexibility by either FF or FG could see either of them in power. Its up for grabs.

Redspider

redspider · 27-05-2007 10:49am

kbannon wrote:

Bertie: "then there are a number of Independents who would be fairly close to my party - there's at least three of those"

At least 3 ?!?!?

Flynn, Healy-Rae .... yes, that's 2, but the 3rd, he must be including either McGrath or Gregory in that.

Does anyone know McGrath's likelihood to sway in with FF or not?
Finian, are you out there? You can break it here ......

Redspider

ps: Yes, the German economy is doing much better in recent times. Better than the US!

chump · 27-05-2007 10:50am

Just for information purposes...

PaddyPower has FF/PD govt. next at @ odds of 10/11 [this bet includes independents, provided none hold ministries]
The same bet can be taken on betfair for 3.25, this is 13/4

so 10/11
vs. 13/4

I know which odds I'd take

Voipjunkie · 27-05-2007 10:54am

FF have been in power for 20 years(bar 2.5 years) and if they form a Government they will have been in power for 25 years.

In the interest of democracy is it time for another inter party government

FG 51
Lab20
Greens 6
Sinn Fein 4
Lowry 1
Tony Gregory 1
Finian McGrath 1

= 84

In the "national interest" should these parties put their differences aside to ensure that FF are not allowed to be perpetually in government.

BTW I understand people have a problem with SF could that be overcome by giving them 2 junior ministries that did not have a cabinet seat and not connected to Justice or Defence

LostinBlanch · 27-05-2007 10:56am

redspider wrote:

Also Rory O'Hanlon could be asked to stay on as Ceann Comhairle and may do so as he could turn 'neutral' as well as it likely being his last term.

Rory O Hanlon, Neutral?? I'll believe that one when I see it. In my eyes he has been one of the most partisan Ceann Comhairles that I have ever seen. Sure didn't Labour consider having a vote of no confidence in him? Something I have never heard of before. I can't see him changing his spots now.

LuckyLloyd · 27-05-2007 10:58am

Voipjunkie wrote:

FF have been in power for 20 years(bar 2.5 years) and if they form a Government they will have been in power for 25 years.

In the interest of democracy is it time for another inter party government

FG 51
Lab20
Greens 6
Sinn Fein 4
Lowry 1
Tony Gregory 1
Finian McGrath 1

= 84

In the "national interest" should these parties put their differences aside to ensure that FF are not allowed to be perpetually in government.

Be honest and ask yourself how long such a coalition would last. Not a viable option IMO.

Voipjunkie · 27-05-2007 11:04am

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Be honest and ask yourself how long such a coalition would last. Not a viable option IMO.

Why whose interest would it be in to take it down

None of those involved other than FG have had a good election and would be in a hurry to rush back to the people it would also be in their interest to show that they could offer an alternative to FF

it would be as stable as FF/PD reliant on a bankrupt and 2 socialists who detest FF and the PDs

bk · 27-05-2007 11:53am

redspider wrote:

Here are the 5 Indepenents/Others/Non-party members:

Tony Gregory - a real independent candidate for many years now. Worked with FF before, but FF will only call on him again as a last resort and are fearful of how much they would have to 'give away'. Gregory could do a deal with either side, as long as his constituency gets looked after and their issues done. In that light he probably prefers FG+Lab+GP.

On election night, Tony was definitely making noises that he would talk to FF. In political code, that pretty much means he will do the business as long as the price is right. Also the cost probably wouldn't be too high, as he is in Dublin Central with Bertie, so an area that gets a lot of attention anyway.

redspider wrote:

Finian McGrath - looks like a real independent but perhaps those that know him might be able to determine if he favours FG, FF or Labour. He comes across very genuine, only a TD since 2002, and has been active in terms of issues such as for the Homeless, unempoloyed and is vefy much a local TD. I have no ida which way he will veer, if any. Thoughts?

Hard to call, Finian has a republican shade to him, he gets a lot of transfers from SF, so probably closer to FF, then FG. Also he is pretty much Berties neighbour, living just across the road on Griffith Avenue. I'd be surprised if he didn't lean towards FF.

Voipjunkie · 27-05-2007 12:03pm

bk wrote:

On election night, Tony was definitely making noises that he would talk to FF. In political code, that pretty much means he will do the business as long as the price is right. Also the cost probably wouldn't be too high, as he is in Dublin Central with Bertie, so an area that gets a lot of attention anyway.

Hard to call, Finian has a republican shade to him, he gets a lot of transfers from SF, so probably closer to FF, then FG. Also he is pretty much Berties neighbour, living just across the road on Griffith Avenue. I'd be surprised if he didn't lean towards FF.

Finian Mcgrath is very similar in politics to Tony Gregory AFAIR he first stood in north central after part of Tony gregorys constituency was moved into North Central and he was endorsed by Gregory.

bk · 27-05-2007 12:07pm

Voipjunkie wrote:

FG 51
Lab20
Greens 6
Sinn Fein 4
Lowry 1
Tony Gregory 1
Finian McGrath 1

= 84

I think that is pretty much the worst thing FG could do. FG has done very well in this election and has built a strong base to challenge FF in the future and will likely perform much better in opposition.

However if they do the above, the Irish people won't thank them, specially going in with SF. It is likely such a government wouldn't last more then 2 or 3 years and when it did collapse, the voters would probably flock back to FF to ensure a stable government is put in place. This would probably put FF back in power for another 10 - 15 years.

Voipjunkie · 27-05-2007 12:20pm

bk wrote:

I think that is pretty much the worst thing FG could do. FG has done very well in this election and has built a strong base to challenge FF in the future and will likely perform much better in opposition.

However if they do the above, the Irish people won't thank them, specially going in with SF. It is likely such a government wouldn't last more then 2 or 3 years and when it did collapse, the voters would probably flock back to FF to ensure a stable government is put in place. This would probably put FF back in power for another 10 - 15 years.

Well lets presume that FF go in with the greens that means they will not be available for the next election for the alliance which is another 6 seats that they need to win that means that Labour and FG need 13 seats next time out which means that basically FG have to win them because labour tied to FG will win nothing.
Worse for FG if Labour go in with FF that removes 20 seats from the alliance next time out

If FF cobble a deal with Gregory and McGrath that will not be good for FG either as it will probably lead to a rise in independents next time out remembering that a lot of FG gains this time were at the expense of indpendents.

If FG and Labour are serious in the believe that FF continually in power is bad for democracy the numbers are there to remove them.

Akrasia · 27-05-2007 12:34pm

Voipjunkie wrote:

Well lets presume that FF go in with the greens that means they will not be available for the next election for the alliance which is another 6 seats

That's not necessarily true.

The greens could still be available for a new government with FG after the next election, especially if the next election is called prematurely as a result of a collapsing government if the greens pull out due to disagreement on key issues.

bk · 27-05-2007 12:36pm

Voipjunkie wrote:

If FG and Labour are serious in the believe that FF continually in power is bad for democracy the numbers are there to remove them.

Well, given that on RTE yesterday, the greens were pretty much throwing themselves at FF, it is pretty much over for the alternative.

Also what you say above is true, but IMO FG would become far more damaged if they went into government now.

Final Results. Let the negotiations begin

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