Outgoing Fianna Fáil & PD Government Lose Election

Seapoint

FF: Outgoing = 80 Election '07 = 78 Result = -2
PD: Outgoing = 8 Election '07 = 2 Result = -6

RESULT = Government lost 8 seats,




and now is forced to engage in horse trading and bartering with bankrupts, gombeen-men and idealgically opposed blackmailers to scramble back to office.


let's see just how much of the family silver is hocked to keep face........... watch this space

ateam

The likelihood is that the PDs (all 2 of them) will be back in government with Fianna Fail, with the help of independents. So, I don't think I would describe it as a loss.

gandalf

So what would you call the minuses then :rolleyes:

Heinrich

gandalf wrote:

So what would you call the minuses then :rolleyes:

Negative positives perhaps?

Great season in store.

Besides I believe that The Teflon Taoiseach will opt for the Arus if Mr Wall puts in a bid for the premises.:D

ateam

gandalf wrote:

So what would you call the minuses then :rolleyes:

Only in Ireland can the party which gets the majority of the vote (almost 42%) be described as losing. To win 78 seats is a stunning result historically. The PD meltdown is a separate issue.

dan719

Well that isn't true. If I remember correctly Al Gore garnered more votes in the presidential election before last and still was not elected.More appropiate would be-only in Ireland would a party that has been shown to be corrupt, whose ideological hero tols us all to fasten our belts while spending money like it was out of fashion(our money), where the current incumbant crys on rte and refuses to answer questions about where exactly all that money came from-only in Ireland would that party recieve most of the votes.

Marshy

dan719 wrote:

Well that isn't true. If I remember correctly Al Gore garnered more votes in the presidential election before last and still was not elected.More appropiate would be-only in Ireland would a party that has been shown to be corrupt, whose ideological hero tols us all to fasten our belts while spending money like it was out of fashion(our money), where the current incumbant crys on rte and refuses to answer questions about where exactly all that money came from-only in Ireland would that party recieve most of the votes.

Also a country that has seen unprecedented economic growth, has reached full employment and has one of the highest standard of living positions in the world; all achieved under this 'crook'. The country has come a long way.

But you just seem to look at the unsubtantiated controversies rather than seeing the apparent successes. Some people have a short memory it would appear.

Akrasia

Marshy wrote:

Also a country that has seen unprecedented economic growth, has reached full employment and has one of the highest standard of living positions in the world; all achieved under this 'crook'. The country has come a long way.

But you just seem to look at the unsubtantiated controversies rather than seeing the apparent successes. Some people have a short memory it would appear.

'Apparent successes' is the right way to describe them. It appears, to the casual observer, that Ireland has done well under the FFPD government, just like it would appear to the casual observer that a professional bodybuilder is at the peak of health and fitness, until he drops dead from a heart attack at 28 years old because his toned body betrays his chemically damaged internal organs.

If you only take the headline economic statistics, Ireland looks healthy, if you run any meaningful tests, the cancer is malignant and spreading.

Lennoxschips

haha, brilliant comparison

Marshy

Akrasia wrote:

'Apparent successes' is the right way to describe them. It appears, to the casual observer, that Ireland has done well under the FFPD government, just like it would appear to the casual observer that a professional bodybuilder is at the peak of health and fitness, until he drops dead from a heart attack at 28 years old because his toned body betrays his chemically damaged internal organs.

If you only take the headline economic statistics, Ireland looks healthy, if you run any meaningful tests, the cancer is malignant and spreading.

I meant apparent as in obvious/clear.

Of course there are some 'cancers' as you put them but there are problems with every government. Its clear in this case that the successes overshadow the problems.

miju

well seeing as how you bring that up Marshy.something you seem to forget is that it was really Labour who actually set the ground work for the Celtci Tiger not Fianna Failure.

it's been pure dumb luck on their behalf they've precided over the boom. however its also been our bad luck as they have squandered a massive chance to really move this country forward instead of wasting it like they have.

suppose we'll see how good the economic skills are when the slowdown in the economy really starts to bite

gandalf

Oh dear, if you consider our economy is driven by construction and consumer spending then you will realise that we are in for a very very hard landing. Its already starting to bite in the construction sector with a slow down in new builds and the market for 2nd hand homes has stalled, it may pick up if FF keep their stamp duty promise in the short term but unless the ECB lower their rates which is not going to happen with the German economy doing so well we are in trouble.

Now couple this with the fact that consumer spending is the other cog in the FF Irish economic engine and you see the other problem, if your mortgage is taking more of your cash you don't have it to spend and you are more than likely to save it because you are worried that things could get worse.

Its obvious that a party devoid of any real economic plans other that those discussed in a drunken tent in Galway have been returned in the great FF election swindle. The good thing is we can now watch them try and fix the problem that they have created.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/15/20213230.pdf

JerkyBoy

What happened is that the outgoing Government parties losts 8 seats and the alternative Government gained 20 seats.

That shows a major shift in public opinion away from the outgoing Government to the Alternative. Just not enought to get them elected, but very close.

The outgoing Government has been given 80 seats by the electorate and the Alternative has been given 77. Only 3 seats and a few hundred votes separated the two.

So this is not a major endorsement of the outgoing, or a major rejection of the alternative.

The country is pretty much split 50-50 on them, with the outgoing Govt. edging out.

Support has been 44.3% for FF\PD and 42.1% for FG\LAB\GREEN.

This election is not a major victory for the outgoing Government.
They still have to scrounge around to come up with a one.

Marshy

But its not all doom and gloom, right?

redspider

Seapoint wrote:

FF: Outgoing = 80 Election '07 = 78 Result = -2
PD: Outgoing = 8 Election '07 = 2 Result = -6

RESULT = Government lost 8 seats

The figures I have are one seat worse than that:

Party 2002 2007 Diff
FF 81 78 -3
PD 8 2 -6 ie: Total: -9

FG 31 51 +20
Lab 20 20 0


From those figures, it would seem clear that the momentum went to FG and Labour and was not an endorsement of the FF+PD government.

This is a case of FF+PD hanging on with the help of other candidates and perhaps another party, and hanging on by their fingernails.

How that is seen as a major success is beyond me.

Redspider

miju

JerkyBoy wrote:

The country is pretty much split 50-50 on them, with the outgoing Govt. edging out.

I reckon less support FF than 50%. My reasoning being that the feedback I've been getting from people since after the election is basically a the economy is looking a bit dodge and better FF be there for that (cos they "created" the celtic tiger in the first place)

basically the bottom line is FF got so many vote because the scare mongering on their behalf worked only prob they gotta deal with now is it blowing up in their face

me grabs the popcorn

Seapoint

Seapoint wrote:

and now is forced to engage in horse trading and bartering with bankrupts, gombeen-men and idealgically opposed blackmailers to scramble back to office.

And Enda Kenny is not thinking of doing the same?
He'll refuse support from Michael Lowry will he?

Enda Kenny wrote:

Speaking to RTÉ News in Castlebar, Mr Kenny said he will set up his own team to examine the options available to the party on forming a coalition.

link

JerkyBoy

The scaremongering in the last week and a half is what bought it for them.

People certainly weren't sold on their manifesto which had little new or progressive in it, and that was reflected in the early polls.

FF picked up on this and changed to attack mode, making false claims about the opposition and scaremongering people into thinking they'd lose their jobs.

It worked.
But now FF have to face the reality which would have been difficult for the alternative to face had they been elected.

Our economy isn't going to grow to the extent that it did in the past, and FF still haven't yet fullfilled their 2002 manifesto, let alone their 2007 one.

My guess though is that they will want to keep Mary in Govt, just so they can keep the Health ministry out of FF hands. They haven't a clue what to do with it and it is a political time-bomb they don't need to be holding.

wb

Seapoint wrote:

FF: Outgoing = 80 Election '07 = 78 Result = -2
PD: Outgoing = 8 Election '07 = 2 Result = -6

RESULT = Government lost 8 seats,




and now is forced to engage in horse trading and bartering with bankrupts, gombeen-men and idealgically opposed blackmailers to scramble back to office.


let's see just how much of the family silver is hocked to keep face........... watch this space

So unless a party gets an overall majority they have lost the election? Just because a party is down in seats does not mean they lost. If a football team won the cup final 5-0 last year, and 3-0 this year - they still won!

FG have never gotten near an overall majority.

At the end of the day, FF got the most seats - the people have spoken.

miju

the people have spoken and only 41% of the voters want them in power

redspider

wb wrote:

So unless a party gets an overall majority they have lost the election? Just because a party is down in seats does not mean they lost. If a football team won the cup final 5-0 last year, and 3-0 this year - they still won!

Well, to use a more apt football analogy, its a bit like FF and FG being at 1st and 2nd place in a league with Lab 3rd, and now FF requiring 'other results' (ie: Inpdendents) to go their way to decide if they will win the league by 1 pt or goal difference, or not. Its far from a 5-0 last time or a 3-0 this time - analogy breakdown/weak analogy selection, it happens all the time ...

If FF+PD+Independents do manage to form a government by one seat, its a bit like winning a football final on penalties after extra time and after a replay as well ie: the slimmest of margins.

I would be surprised if the Green's would go into an FF lead government, unless FF were extemely maleable in terms of policy, and that is unlikely. And didnt Trevor Sargent have a personal issue with Ahern and his ethics. I cant see them going in ...... tactically, it would make sense for them to stay in a stong opposition, and wait for their next chance and a swing away fom FF the next time, if it happens.

choices, choices ....

Redspider

JerkyBoy

The people have spoken and 43% want the outgoing coalition in power and 42% want the alternative coalition in power.

A few hundred votes separated the two.

We have to now wait and see what happens to Bertie at the Tribunal.

We know he lied to us during his interview with Dobson last year...we'll see how he fares when he doesn't have the election campaign to hide behind.

The first question any reporter should ask him, now that the election is over, is:
"Why did you lie to the Irish people when you told them that the money you had saved, up to £50,000, "was gone", and that since your friends knew the money was gone they decided to help you out with a "loan"?
Yet when put to you by the Mahon Tribunal that you were in funds of up to £70,000 at the time of receiving the £22,500 "loan", you confirmed that information as correct."
"Did you mislead the Irish people into thinking you were having financial troubles so they would believe your stories about "loans" and "whip-arounds", when in fact you were swimming in the kind of cash that puts most ordinary citizens annual salaries to shame even by today's standards, at the time of these payments were made to you?"

wb

miju wrote:

the people have spoken and only 41% of the voters want them in power

It's called democracy. Are you saying that a party should not govern unless it gets an overall majority or 50% of the vote?

The fact is:

More people voted for Fianna Fáil than for any other party. Period.

Take FG's vote in isolation and you can say that the vast majority of Irish people don't want them.

Of course FG/Lab/Green/Independent/SinnFein/PD and anyone else you want to throw in have more votes combined, but people want Bertie, as witnessed by the FF vote NOT Bertie Bassets all sorts government.

daveirl

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