AK (Cash) - Need help understading the following hand.

gocall01

I have no stats on the Villain but he has been playing fairly LAG IMO while I have been at the table.
(He has had big swings in his stack).

I generally play AK from early position 80% raise, 20% flat call.
I look at my bet sizes and conclude:
Preflop = fine.
Flop = fine.
Turn = terrible (should have potted it).

However, from a previous discussion on boards you do not want to scare the incorrect call here as you will get paid off here.
Still, the turn bet was too small in hindsight.

Now the real question!
Even though everything looks like a flush chase from the Villain I can't help thinking, was it really???

I know walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, therefore is a

I have trouble making a decision in situations like this and believe I fold too often.

Opinions appreciated!



Table Bridger (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:05:45 ET - 2007/05/22
Seat 1: mompoker2 ($199)
Seat 2: feedmee2 ($229.50)
Seat 3: Villain ($292.75)
Seat 4: Hero ($202.75)
Seat 5: j23ad ($174.25)
Seat 6: Empty Set ($235)
feedmee2 posts the small blind of $1
Villain posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [As Kd]
Hero raises to $6

Folds to Villain in BB
Villain calls $4
Pot = $13

*** FLOP *** [8h Ts Ah]
Villain checks
Hero bets $11
Villain calls $11
Pot = $35

*** TURN *** [8h Ts Ah] [2c]
Villain checks
Hero bets $25
Villain calls $25
Pot = $85


*** RIVER *** [8h Ts Ah 2c] [6h]
Villain bets $100
Uncalled bet of $100 returned to Villain
Villain mucks
Villain wins the pot ($82)
Hero has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $85 | Rake $3
Board: [8h Ts Ah 2c 6h]

Mr.Plough

nothing wrong there if you put him on fd

fuzzbox

I think you played everystreet fine.

I find villains line to very often be a very strong hand (like a flush).

BigCityBanker

its fine, if you have him on FD then you played all streets fine. I dont think an extra $5 or $10 on the turn was gonna get rid of him.

Ste05

Yeah it looks fine to me too, he could be just representing the flush, but a huge % of the time he'll have it. It seems pretty obvious what we have so I just throw it away.

valor

hand is fine

jimmii

The problem with these flush chasers is that when they make their flush its hard to get away as they normally call such a big turn bet that you can't believe that is all the have. They probably would have called 35 on the turn anyway. He could be using the heart as a bluff card if he feels he can move you off a bare ace but you need to have a pretty good read to call that much on the river based on that chance.

Lazare

You played it fine, but going by your desc of villain I'd say you were floated, but as Ste says calling is -EV.

gocall01

Lazare wrote:

You played it fine, but going by your desc of villain I'd say you were floated, but as Ste says calling is -EV.

This always my fear in this position and it's getting more and more difficult to lay it down.
Cheers for the feedback, now off to find this guy again!

Bandana boy

Look sfine cant believe he is calling with complete air to float here
both the straight draw and flush draw got there i think you can believe him

TacT

he has a better hand here a hell of a lot more often than not. two pair/set or the flush which he doesn't need to worry about because he has you on a big ace. Villain would have needed to be seen bluffing 3 flush boards previously to make this a call and even then it's still a very marginal one. Played it perfectly imo.

Brayruit

How do you reckon villain played it if (a) he was on a draw, (b) he was representing a draw?

Marq

standard.

Brayruit

Marq wrote:

standard.

I'm not sure it should be standard.

Let's assume that the villain was on the draw.

After the turn, villain is being offered 2.4:1 and probability of hitting flush is 4.11:1 (19.5%).

So (s)he is not getting the express odds to call.

It is only a good call if the villain reckons there is a sufficient probability of being called for a bet on the end - in this case for a bet of 100. If p is the probability that he is getting called, the odds he is getting are:

((19.5% x p x 100) + 60) / 25 = (0.78p + 2.4):1

Even if he is 100% sure of being called (and note he wasn’t called!) he is getting 3.18:1. So on this analysis it is clearly a bad call.

Seems to me that he would need to be 100% sure of being called for a bet of 220 on the end. Seeing as Hero has only 160 odd left, this can’t stack up (and would not stack up anyway as p would be much less than 100%).

Also therefore seems that representing the draw is even worse!

Am I missing something?

gocall01

You are not missing anything, this is comprehensive to the extreme.
The only think I will say is that neither I or the villain in this piece will ever calculate this out in the time a decision is required to be made.

At the time I thought my turn bet was big enough (on reflection I would bet more).
The villain decided that he had the odds (maybe even marginal in his own mind) to call.
He hit the flush on the river, that's what I put him on and folded to his bet.

I believe I was correct to fold but I still hate doing it!:o

dvdfan

I would think he meant the Hero's play was standard not the villain

StephenInsane

I can't believe he called to the river, what a dummy.

Brayruit

dvdfan wrote:

I would think he meant the Hero's play was standard not the villain

That is probably right... sorry Marq.

Brayruit

gocall01 wrote:

You are not missing anything, this is comprehensive to the extreme.
The only think I will say is that neither I or the villain in this piece will ever calculate this out in the time a decision is required to be made.

At the time I thought my turn bet was big enough (on reflection I would bet more).
The villain decided that he had the odds (maybe even marginal in his own mind) to call.
He hit the flush on the river, that's what I put him on and folded to his bet.

I believe I was correct to fold but I still hate doing it!:o

The only reason for betting more would be to get the Villain to make an even worse call than he did.... Under the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, any bet that offers odds no better than 3.1:1 or so is +EV, and after that you put in as much as the Villain will (in error) call on the turn.

And yes, probably a good fold, you will make money from this opponent in the long run.