One More Waterford Open hand

RichieLawlor

Blinds are 200-400 with a 25 ante
Stacks Albert 60k, Me 24k Muppet 35k



There is a raise in 1st position to 1025 (albert kenny) and i look down at As Ah in the cutoff and raise to 2700 ( i want action as john dee is on my immeatiate right with a big stack and i need to start gatherin chips) and the big blind ( muppet, seen him call raises and re-raises with any suited cards) cold calls. Albert calls aswell as he now obviously is priced in. Pot around 8300

Flop J 9 2 rainbow. Its checked to me and i bet 6500, BB almost beats me in the pot ( believe me his range here is anywhere from a 2 to AK) and albert folds. pot now 21.5k

Turn Qc completing the rainbow and the bib blind checks..... My move?
pot is 21.5k and i have 14.5k left

anyone who knows what happened please stay quiet i want some honest answers not result based thinking

cooker3

If he is that big a muppet, just push.

valor

uh, shove

Bandara

shove and watch him turn over two pair ....

NeoSlicerZ

erm with his range that big.... shove, bet he has QJo though..

Captain Tom

you dont even have a pot sized bet left.no brainer shove.

mdwexford

take it here

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578

Bandara

mdwexford wrote:

take it here

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578

saucer of milk purleaseeeee

smurph

It's one of those really tough ones, He has checked into you, if you push for 14.5K I firmly believe that he will call you anyway, so why not see a river card for free?

I think he probably has QJ or Q10 (with Q 10 he is not going anywhere). I am basing these hands on the information that you gave, ie call with any picture card, suited cards etc.,) As you say he almost beat you to the pot. It's a difficult situation you are in.

I personally would check and re-evaluate the river. I feel your pain though..... WTF was he flat calling a raise and a re-raise, Albert could have re-reaised again, and he was out of position aswell, strange call tbh.

(Ps I thought that there was supposed to be a bit more effort in replies to threads like this, ie no "." Dot, one word replies etc., Richied posted this thread to get other peoples thoughts on the hand etc., and to MDWexford above, if he didn't want any proper discussion he could have put it in the BB Sticky)

Flushdraw

I'd reraise a little more preflop. I'd want either the BB or Albert in there but probably not both. The quick call stinks of a draw, maybe 108 meaning the Q gives him the straight. He could also have QJ

Tough spot now but i'd check behind and re-evaluate on the river

Flipper

Check behind and hope for a free showdown. I really fancy KT or even more likely, JQ here. I might like a 2 or a 9 on the river thou...

Marq

mdwexford wrote:

take it here

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578

.

Tar.Aldarion

He had j9 didn't he?

bops

this is a very simple push - muppet as described will call push with a draw, or one pair, but will not pay yu off OTR if he misses. If he hits on the river or thinks his top pair (for eg) is good, he will probab;y set you all in and you will have a tougher decision.

Basically, if you think you are ahead now get them in now

RacingSilver

Firstly, I think you should have raised more pre-flop in the hope that it would be head-up. Looking for 3-way action with AA is not a good thing.


From your description, he could have a lot of hands here
e.g. QT, JT, QJ, KT, T8s, AJ, KJ, JJ, J9s, 99, 22 some of which give him a made hand, others which put him on a draw. I can’t really see him having anything else.

If he has QT or JT (24 possibilities), you’re making a huge mistake not betting.
If he has AJ or KJ (18 possibilities), again you should bet.
If he has QJ (9 possibilities), you should check behind.
If he has KT or T8s (20 possibilities) you should check behind.
If he has J9s, JJ, 99 or 22 (18 possibilities) again you should check behind.

Against a reasonable player, you could write-off virtually all of those hands as they would be mucked after a raise and a reraise, but against the player you describe that isn’t the case.
In summary,
in 42 of the above cases, you should bet.
in 47 of the above cases, you should check behind.

So, I would probably check behind and hope that he checks the river also.
Maybe you can outrule some of the above hands and include some others, which may make it better to bet.
Anyway, I don’t think it’s an easy decision, and certainly not a no-brainer like some people suggest.
An important factor here is that if you check behind and fold to a bet on the river, you still have a reasonable stack. To me, that would point towards a call being the better option.

I admit this isn’t very scientific but it’s the best I can come up with.

Lastly, I’m not too impressed with you describing this player as a ‘muppet’. A lot of Irish players read this stuff, maybe even your muppet. I think you could have used a nicer term to describe him e.g. very loose.
Just a little bit of etiquette !

RichieLawlor

Well anyway i shoved and he sits back and sighs then says how much, before calling and showing KTo for the nuts.

Thanks to anyone who gave their opinions.

p.s mdwexford some of these tournaments have a day 2 you should check it out someday pal.

p.s.s Racing Silver, a loose player may have QJ or J9 in this spot but only a muppet has KT

Goodluck2me

check behind.

nicnicnic

Richie can you post your exit hand from the €250 event for some analysis i thought it was a very interesting hand