Dun Laoghaire FG query

ullu

There are three FG candidates in this constituency, the same as the last election when none of them were elected.

Based on some of the latest odds, it would appear they're effectively vying for the one seat. What's the logic behind this? Would splitting the FG vote between two candidates as opposed to three not secure a seat? They can't have realistically thought they would gain at least two seats, can they?

Maybe I'll be surprised after Thursday but I doubt it.

Badabing

Sean Barrett was begged to come back by Fine Gael and get back the seat, they did terrible there last time i think the cosgrave situation didn't help.

ullu

Fair enough but if they assume Barrett is their strongest chance of getting a seat, why have both Bailey and Regan on the ticket, dividing the vote of any traditional FG supporters?

The_Minister

If any of them get it it'll be Barrett. If they'd just run two, then they might have gotten both, but I think they wanted to be able to boast about how many candidates they were running.

redspider

I think the local FG people couldnt agree which two candidates to run, so with Barret entering the fray they just stuck with the 3 to be fair to the other two. There may be a regional element to it as well. If they can 'manage' (ie: encourage voters) to transfer to other FG candidates they should hold their votes whether 2 or 3. There is no definitive answer, but the rule of thumb is that if you are gunning for 1 seat, two candidates is more than enough.

The big question in Dun Laoghaire is the demise of Fiona O'Malley, the sitting PD TD. She was a surprise winner the last time out in 2002 even with the Des O'Malley 'family franchise' behind her, but is under pressure, some would say severe pressure this time around. Paddypower has her well down the pecking order. Whether that is true or not remains to be seen. I haven't read about a detailed survey done for Dun Laoghaire so I dont know for sure. I wouldnt be surprised if she didnt make it but the PD's are a party of surprise.

Maybe The_Minster has some opinions on this, do you?

Redspider

gandalf

Yeah its strange that FG are running 3 candidates when they only have a possibility of 1 seat.

Its like Labour in Dublin South, why have they got 2 candidates when they only have an outside chance of 1 seat, it doesn't make sense?

The_Minister

redspider wrote:

Maybe The_Minster has some opinions on this, do you?

I was canvassing for Fiona just the other day. Her response on the doorsteps is remarkable, with loads of people knowing and liking her. I think she may surprise everyone, but even if she doesn't, she's going to poll extremely well.

dereko1969

gandalf wrote:

Yeah its strange that FG are running 3 candidates when they only have a possibility of 1 seat.

Its like Labour in Dublin South, why have they got 2 candidates when they only have an outside chance of 1 seat, it doesn't make sense?

In Dublin South Alex White was parachuted in as they for some reason didn't like Culhane who won the selection (albeit on the toss of a coin), White is from the D/L wing so no surprises that Rabbitte wanted another fellow traveller in. I think the strategy will basically grant Shatter the seat that Liz O'Donnell is going to lose, hard to tell whether Labour would win with only 1 candidate either as a good percentage of their vote seems to have gone green/fine gael. Could be interesting though.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Badabing wrote:

Sean Barrett was begged to come back by Fine Gael and get back the seat.

lol - i'm fairly certain that wasn't the case. At least, for the local organisation.

Badabing

Roundtower2 wrote:

lol - i'm fairly certain that wasn't the case. At least, for the local organisation.

Why then did he suddenly run again after retiring 5 years ago?

redspider

The_Minister wrote:

I was canvassing for Fiona just the other day. Her response on the doorsteps is remarkable, with loads of people knowing and liking her. I think she may surprise everyone, but even if she doesn't, she's going to poll extremely well.

Okay, so its a case of watch that space. I'll look out for Dun Laoghaire when the counting starts. Fiona seems a nice enough person, so best of luck.

Redspider

The_Minister

Roundtower2 wrote:

lol - i'm fairly certain that wasn't the case. At least, for the local organisation.

TBH, I heard the same thing as badabing, from an FG'er. He was apparently enjoying retirement (doing classes and the like), but they asked him to run because otherwise it was Bailey or Regan....

EDIT: Redspider, Dun Laoighaire will be a very close constituency. It'll be exciting.

Zaph

That's pretty much it all right. I don't know much about Eugene Regan, but Bailey has stood a number of times and has never managed to get elected, even when Barrett stood down after more than 20 years as a TD. Barrett has generally been perceived in the area as being a good local politician, but seeing as he's just been parachuted in and has been out of action for so long it will be interesting to see if people still view him in that light. Outside his own areas Bailey seems to be quite unpopular, although he's obviously popular enough locally to get regularly elected to DLRCC. I've heard it said that one reason is possibly due to his activities on the Dublin GAA county board which I'm told have upset some people (not soo sure there though, I'm not a GAA fan). Either way, here are some extracts from his Wikipedia page which suggests he's upset someone:

John Bailey is a member of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council representing the Dún Laoghaire electoral area. He has been selected to contest the next next Irish general election as a Fine Gael candidate in Dún Laoghaire constituency.

Councillor Eugene Regan SC and former politician, Seán Barrett have also been selected as candidates, but he doesn't like to talk about them.

Don't Vote for him, he's crap.

The_Minister

The_Minister wrote:

I was canvassing for Fiona just the other day. Her response on the doorsteps is remarkable

Never trust what they say on the doorstep. We'd have got two quotas here in South Kerry for the FF lads long ago!

Good luck with that. She seems to be intelligent and capable.

The_Minister

Can I just say, that if an FG'er gets in, I hope its not Regan. There I said it.

Crash

dereko1969 wrote:

In Dublin South Alex White was parachuted in as they for some reason didn't like Culhane who won the selection (albeit on the toss of a coin), White is from the D/L wing so no surprises that Rabbitte wanted another fellow traveller in. I think the strategy will basically grant Shatter the seat that Liz O'Donnell is going to lose, hard to tell whether Labour would win with only 1 candidate either as a good percentage of their vote seems to have gone green/fine gael. Could be interesting though.

Culhane is really opposed to being in with Fine Gael, and seems to believe that Labour should be vying for election on their own right, as opposed to as a coalition.

Me figures that why alex white has been put in - culhane wouldnt possibly be the most popular in the party from some of his views i'd guess.