Irish 2000 Guineas

BangBeater

Any thoughts??

Eagle Mountain for me for sure if he's confirmed. He ran on well in 5th on his first run of the season in the English 2000 guineas.

Robin1982

Eagle Mountain has a lot of supporters but AOB hasn't yet quite committed him to the race, with the 10.5f (2100m) Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) being now touted as a possibility.

I had never seen Cockey Rebel run before the Guineas but on that fast ground I thought he looked like a very good horse, he quickened up very well indeed.

Anyone who saw Excellent Art in the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) would know that he fairly flew home after being blocked several times up the home straight.

Duke of Marmalade has been seriously supported in recent days (now down to 3/1 with some bookies). Part of the reason may be the improvement most AOB horses show on their 2nd outing of the season.

An interesting way to look at these Classic 1m races is to take a detailed look at the breeding. Before the English 2000 Guineas, on another forum, the following was provided:

jth wrote:

...Dosage, which is a way of converting all the males in a horse's pedigree to a series of numbers is quite useful in unravelling Group races over the classic distances...

jth wrote:

...then the ideal Dosage Index is a DI of around 1.8 but < 2.2 and > 1.5 ...
...you want a good Genetic Strength Value, pref 70+ ...
...the ideal Centre of Distribution is >0.45 and < 0.7

...Brilliant points should be greater than 6 ... Classic points should be > than 2 X brilliant points UNLESS brilliant points are > 4 ...

jth wrote:

1st Duke Of Marmalade GSV 77

DI 1.88 CD 0.5 Dosage ( 8/4/23/0/1)

2nd Cockney Rebel GSV 64

DI 1.91 CD 0.69 Dosage (6/1/7/2/0)

3rd Excellent Art GSV 73

DI 2.43 CD 0.67 Dosage (6/4/14/0/0)

4th US Ranger GSV 78

DI 2.29 CD 0.52 Dosage (7/12/26/0/1) GSV 78

Duke of Marmalade finished 4th. Cockney Rebel won. Excellent Art did not run in the Newmarket Guineas. US Ranger finished unplaced but 2nd on the far side group (btw, I think US Ranger may do much better in the traditionally softer ground French 1m G1 races later in the season).

Current Irish 2000 Guineas market (prices to 'back'):

Cockney Rebel (2.24)
Duke of Marmalade (4.2)
Eagle Mountain (9.4)
Excellent Art (13.5)

Perhaps on the betting, Excellent Art may be some value.

ChuckProphet

Cockney Rebel
Confuchias
Creachadoir
Duke Of Marmalade
Excellent Art
Ferneley
Fleeting Shadow
Followmyfootsteps
He's A Decoy
Kingsdale Orion
Traffic Guard
Trinity College
Vital Equine

i think i may give this one a miss. nothing standing out for me

rag2gar

When is kieren fallon back? Is it this weekend?>

Robin1982

rag2gar wrote:

When is kieren fallon back? Is it this weekend?>

His six-month ban for drugs offences ends June 7th - he can then ride in Ireland and France but will continue to be banned from riding in the UK.

Colonel Sanders

ChuckProphet wrote:

Cockney Rebel
Confuchias
Creachadoir
Duke Of Marmalade
Excellent Art
Ferneley
Fleeting Shadow
Followmyfootsteps
He's A Decoy
Kingsdale Orion
Traffic Guard
Trinity College
Vital Equine

i think i may give this one a miss. nothing standing out for me

pretty much my thinking but I wouldn't lay the jolly, he had most of these well behind at newmarket and not many seemed to have any excuse.

Robin1982

Looking at the Newmarket & Longchamp videos and form again, I have to say I don't think Cockney Rebel should be odds against. He was a pretty emphatic winner that day, and although the ground was quite firm, the rain isn't due to arrive until Saturday night at the Curragh so conditions will not be that different.

Duke Of Marmalade @ 3/1 seems rather short and is based more on AOB reputation rather than anything else. Some have been saying that his preparation for Newmarket was rushed due to the retirement of Holy Roman Emperor but that could be just untrue.

Vital Equine led for a long way at Newmarket but both he and DOM were quickly dismissed by CR, who impressively quickened by.

The French Guineas was once again run at a slow pace and it seems somewhat suprising that Excellent Art goes for this rather than the winner Astronomer Royal - EA did fly home but it did not look the strongest race.

For a horse who has clearly demonstrated the best form for these race conditions, surely 5/4 is more than fair?

clusk007

i got a tip 4 traffic guard at 66/1 so its that one for me!

Robin1982

Excellent Art non-runner: stone bruise