Galway (East?) How to best use my vote

pencil

Just watching primetime & have made up my mind finally (non party aligned but would lean towards the Green party - just reckon you have to be that bit more honest to join the green party??).

I'd like to see Greens+Labour+FG in - just got fed up of the negativity.

FF have their good points (Martin - smoking ban) and bad points (Cullen - e-voting joker - he wasted more money than I'll ever pay in taxes). But the manner in which they are trying to convince me to vote for them has annoyed me. All numbers & percentages & nothing to convince me that anything will change/improve after 10 years.

Still watching..... man the PDs are just sad..... 'There are monsters in the closet... boo'.

Anyhow - I don't even know the politicians in the area but would like to use my vote as best I can to get a change in. Which of the politicians (FG/Labour/Green) in the area need by vote most (is it a close race?).

I'll be voting in the Renmore primary school.

Just found out I'min Galway West
http://www.mycandidate.ie/list.php?cid=24

John R

Based on the RTE predictions it will be a very close race between GP, LAB and PD for the last 2 seats. You would be best giving your first pref to GP or LAB and the second to the other, subsequent preferences to FG and any others you like.

FG fielding 3 candidates when they are only in line for one seat seems a bit stupid to me but I suppose the eliminated ones will eventually transfer to the most popular one.

RTE wrote:

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections2007/Galway-West.html


Galway West

QUICK TAKE

Seats: 5
Candidates: 15
Population: 131,041
Communities include Clifden, Oughterard, Galway, Aran Islands

CANDIDATES

Ann Marie Carroll SF
Catherine Connolly IND
Margaret Cox IND
Michael Crowe FF
Frank Fahey FF
Noel Grealish PD
Fidelma Healy Eames FG
Michael D Higgins LAB
Thomas King IND
Sean Kyne FG
Donal Lyons PD
Padraic McCormack FG
Niall Ó Brolcháin GP
Éamon Ó Cuív FF
Tom Welby PD

SNAPSHOT

Eamon Ó Cuiv of Fianna Fáil is the only one of the outgoing deputies who can feel reasonably secure. Noel Grealish of the Progressive Democrats, who pulled off a sensational win in 2002, has to be the most vulnerable.

The most obvious threat to the status quo comes from the Green Party's Niall Ó Brolcháin, who is currently the Mayor of Galway City. If the Greens are to take a seat here it could be at the expense of either the PDs, Labour or Fine Gael.

Internal problems within Labour have caused Cllr Catherine Connolly, one of four Labour councillors in the city, to leave the party and run as an independent. She will undoubtedly eat into the Higgins vote, though the expectation is that the lion's share of her second preferences will transfer to him.

Fine Gael too has had its difficulties. Padraic McCormack had decided to retire, but was cajoled by Enda Kenny to reverse his decision and run again.

The question that will dominate this campaign is whether the PDs can repeat their 2002 success. Then, their masterstroke, engineered by Bobby Molloy, to run three candidates, proved to be a winner. Noel Grealish, helped undoubtedly by some Fianna Fáil votes, eventually was elected at the 15th count.

PREDICTIONS

Fianna Fáil will win two seats, most probably Ó Cuiv and Fahey. There has always been a Fine Gael seat in Galway West, and really if they could manage to hold on in 2002, in spite of a five-point drop in its vote, and on a day of national collapse, it should also retain its seat.

Michael D Higgins can take nothing for granted. He will be damaged by his former party colleague Connolly, and Ó Brolcháin and Sinn Féin's Carroll may also take votes from him. Higgins should be the recipient of sufficient transfers to see him through, though.

We then could have the prospect of a head-to-head battle for the last seat between the Greens and the PDs. Noel Grealish is buttressed by two known vote-getters in Lyons and Welby, but whether the old Molloy machine is as strong as it once was, we will have to wait and see.

Ó Brolcháin's chances are certainly being enhanced by national media attention, and being the current Mayor of Galway cannot be a hindrance either. His 2002 vote was unspectacular, but he did hold on until the 13th count, attracting transfers from all over the place.

It is really anybody's guess as to where that fifth seat goes. How the national mood blows could be decisive.

2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 GP (GP gain from PD)

- Rachael English and Nick Coffey from RTÉ's The Election Book

tred

John R wrote:

Based on the RTE predictions it will be a very close race between GP, LAB and PD for the last 2 seats. You would be best giving your first pref to GP or LAB and the second to the other, subsequent preferences to FG and any others you like.

FG fielding 3 candidates when they are only in line for one seat seems a bit stupid to me but I suppose the eliminated ones will eventually transfer to the most popular one.

The Mayor commited electoral suicide recently though, with his opposition to the outer bypass, and the way he handled the water crisis. Rumours have it this week his vote has dropped. PD's are under pressure but no more than 2002. I wouldnt surprised if Michael Crowe FF took Fahys seat. Fahy has being told to stay out of the city for canvassing, so it will be interesting to see does it effect him. I think it might.

3greenrizla's

I am still undecided on how to vote in Galway west,

I think it will be

Michael D Higgins
Niall Ó Brolcháin (eventhough he has not done great as Mayor my hippy tendancies are shining through)
third preference could go down to a lucky dip - any advice / is 3rd pref important?

toiletduck

I think there won't be any change in Galway West.

leninbenjamin

toiletduck wrote:

I think there won't be any change in Galway West.

i'd be really surprised if there wasn't.

Raskolnikov

3greenrizla's wrote:

I am still undecided on how to vote in Galway west,

I think it will be

Michael D Higgins
Niall Ó Brolcháin (eventhough he has not done great as Mayor my hippy tendancies are shining through)
third preference could go down to a lucky dip - any advice / is 3rd pref important?

Yes, it could very well be important.

There's a battle for the 5 seat between Grealish (PD) and McCormack (FG). You could use your third preference to tactically keep one of those candidates out. It's up to you to decide though!

3greenrizla's

anyone know who Thomas King is,

http://www.mycandidate.ie/candidate.php?cid=466

even google let me down, he must be good