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Stats/Gambling

  • 19-05-2007 4:39pm
    #1
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭


    I have a certain bet which has come up 190 times out of 201 so far. So my question is: What would be a good measure that the system is real, and how confident can I be that the true behaviour will stay at or around the 94% I have so far, given the sample size?

    I was thinking of using the 'standard error' ie 1/sqrt(n) which with 201 samples gives me a roughly 93% confidence thant I can expect the current behaviour to continue....am I on the right track.


Comments

  • #2
    Thomas_S_Hunterson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,151 ✭✭✭Thomas_S_Hunterson


    The formula for standard error is
    d153b76d70d2424d0c8b5958e3c8f2c0.png according to wiki, not well up on my statistics though so i cant be of further assistance.


  • #3
    2Scoops
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭2Scoops


    What's the bet that's worked 190/201?? Just curious - I'd take those odds to Vegas:D


  • #4
    Fremen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    I think you need to know how the outcomes are distributed (i.e. gaussian, hyberbolic etc...) before you can get a confidence interval.

    We probably need to know more about the bet before anyone can comment.
    Not that I'm trying to get you to spill the beans on your cash cow :D


  • #5
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    It's actually more of a trade than a bet, on the 'next goal' on football matches on betfair. My return is about 18% on the winners, total bet lost on the losers, so cleary I need to get 6/7 right to turn a profit. I predict I can get around 9/10 right. As you can see I'm doing better than that so far (though yesterday did a good job of reeling me back!) What I want to know when can I be confident that I am really gonna consistently average 9/10 right, and that I'm not just on the crest of some horrible curve that's gonna bring me back?
    Goals are Possion distributed by the way.


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