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English Derby and Oaks - what not to back

Comments

  • #2
    wb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    kincsem wrote:
    I've started a thread on Wannabet with my ideas on these races

    http://www.wannabet.ie/boards/showthread.php?t=372

    Hi Kincskem, Wannabet died a death some time ago. You were probably looking for letsbet? www.letsbet.ie/forum


  • #3
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    does your boards username/password work there or do you need to register too?


  • #4
    kincsem
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    wb wrote:
    Hi Kincskem, Wannabet died a death some time ago. You were probably looking for letsbet? www.letsbet.ie/forum

    I looked at Letsbet. Very poor level of advice there.


  • #5
    fade2black
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    Just to clarify...Let's Bet was set up by some people who also post on boards...it's just a bigger place, similar to Antes Up for the poker lads, where people can post about everything gambling related (and more).


  • #6
    fade2black
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    kincsem wrote:
    I looked at Letsbet. Very poor level of advice there.

    To be honest Kincsem, that's an unfair comment. There has been a helluva lot of good advice given since the site's beginning and there is a 50/50 mix of experienced and amateur punters. Being snobbish about it is not going to help anyone. Your post was insightful, so why not help others who don't know as much as you possibly do.

    You posted it on Wanna Bet, which is only used as a place for spammers and advertisers these days. But hey, it's your choice. You can always post it here if you want, unless the advice is just as poor here?


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  • #7
    Robin1982
    Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭Robin1982


    Since I really don't see why this wasn't posted here in the first place...
    kincesm wrote:
    I analyse pedigrees. My favourite race is the English Oaks (1st June), closely followed by the English Derby (2nd June). For many years I flew over to Epsom for these races.

    At this stage there are dozens of horses entered in these races so it is not easy to pick a winner. What I am going to do is list the Epsom Derby horses that I think can't win, because they will not stay. You can use this advice in two ways (1) do not bet on these horses (2) lay these horses. My favourite move is to place-lay the non-stayers on Betfair. It takes more money to lay a horse in the win market, than to place-lay a horse in the place market.

    My place-lays on Betfair this year are -

    Salford Mill (Betfair win price 10s) (2nd fav, risky to lay, but a big reward)
    Admiralofthefleet (19s win, 6th fav)
    Duke Of Marmalade (70s win, probably a non-runner)
    Mount Nelson (110s win, probably a non-runner)
    Yellowstone (34s win, 2nd in the Derrinstown last weekend)
    Adagio (28s win, goes in the Dante on Thursday)

    Yellowstone is the most likely not to stay, closely followed by Adagio.

    Last year I only place-layed two horses: Visindar 2/1 Derby favourite (5th of 18); Riyalma 9/2 Oaks 2nd fav, (10th of 10).

    Do you focus only on the sires or do you also look at the female side (and if so, to what depth)?

    Do you use Dosage Analysis or Genetic Strength Values or just your own method?


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